Notre Dame believes it has a College Football Playoff blueprint. Is Marcus Freeman ready?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the College Football Playoff Prospectus, previewing and predicting the top CFP contenders and Power 4 conferences for the upcoming season.

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Marcus Freeman lingered beside the practice fields as Notre Dame wrapped its second week of training camp in mid-August. The break let Freeman connect with two of his sons, Geno standing by his side while Nico hung on his dad’s left arm. And like most moments in Freeman’s football life, there was more to it.

Before retreating to his office to watch film, Freeman chatted with Notre Dame men’s lacrosse coach Kevin Corrigan, who spent 35 seasons constructing one of the sport’s best programs and the past two lifting a trophy. Hired four months before Lou Holtz became the last Notre Dame football coach to win it all, Corrigan built a dynasty from nothing.

Freeman doesn’t have that kind of time, even as a 38-year old head coach entering his third season. It’s why he never turns down the opportunity to learn, whether that’s from a lacrosse coach after practice, visiting NFL franchises during spring recruiting or landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln this summer to learn about military readiness. Now it’s time for Freeman to show much how much knowledge he’s accumulated since Notre Dame promoted the former Ohio State linebacker to head coach.

Freeman won over the locker room the moment he got the job. Winning everything else has been harder as the sport’s most tradition-soaked program navigates a new world of the transfer portal, NIL and the 12-team College Football Playoff. But even there, Notre Dame football seems to be adapting alongside its head coach instead of digging its golden heels into the FieldTurf.

Notre Dame added another banner transfer haul this offseason, starting with quarterback Riley Leonard from Duke. It hired offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock away from Brian Kelly and LSU. It retained defensive coordinator Al Golden for a third season. And it gave both coordinators four-year deals believed to be valued at around $2 million per season. When Michigan attempted to hire recruiting director Chad Bowden on a big-money deal, Notre Dame paid up to keep him.

And outside Notre Dame’s still-new indoor facility, construction has begun on a new football operations center, a 158,000-square football facility with a price tag well above $100 million.

Off the field, Notre Dame has put its money where its mouth is with football. If an athletic director’s job is to remove every excuse a head coach has for not winning, the retiring Jack Swarbrick and the new AD Pete Bevacqua seem to have done it.

Now comes the hard part as Notre Dame opens the season as a favorite to make the College Football Playoff but is the underdog heading to Texas A&M. The program maintains internal expectations it will host a first-round Playoff game after helping design the postseason’s format. Whether Freeman can bring the CFP to Notre Dame’s doorstep, though, will require a breakthrough season on multiple fronts. Still, the Irish seem well-equipped.

“I told our coaching staff, man, that’s the most-prepared group I’ve been a part of on both sides of the ball,” Freeman said. “Really competing, really executing, not trying to trick each other, just doing what you’ve been doing.”

That’s the difference for Notre Dame, at least in theory. The Irish were so imperfect the past two seasons that they sometimes played to cover up their weaknesses more than lean into their strengths. While Notre Dame’s roster has holes — its first-choice offensive line may return six career starts and start freshman Anthonie Knapp at left tackle —  the Irish have answered almost every other offseason question in the affirmative.

Leonard leads an offense with potential All-American tight end Mitchell Evans, who won’t be asked to do everything like last season. Notre Dame added Beaux Collins (Clemson), Kris Mitchell (FIU) and Jayden Harrison (Marshall) — they combined for 130 catches, 2,038 yards and 11 touchdowns last season — to rebuild the receiving corps. Jeremiyah Love is next at running back, replacing Audric Estime.

Defensively, Notre Dame could start eight graduate students. Defensive tackles Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser and safety Xavier Watts all put off the NFL for a final season. Star cornerback Benjamin Morrison returns. Incoming transfers RJ Oben (Duke), Jordan Clark (Arizona State) and Rod Heard II (Northwestern) will all play big roles.

Notre Dame led the nation in pass efficiency defense last season. It finished fifth in yards per play allowed, seventh in scoring defense and third in red zone efficiency.

“It’s really hard not to think that you’re going to be better than the year before,” Kiser said. “We don’t want to take a step back. It’s certainly our expectation to take another step and be a top defense in the country.”

Notre Dame has the infrastructure in place to push forward, from the coordinators to the roster to the recruiting operation. Now it’s a matter of the head coach proving he can put those blueprints to work.

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The coach

If this season goes to plan, Freeman will no longer be referred to as a “first-time head coach” by the end of it.

Notre Dame’s pick to succeed Kelly has learned on the job since Swarbrick swiftly promoted the former defensive coordinator after the program’s all-time winningest coach bolted for LSU. There’s been a lot of learning on the job since, a bargain Notre Dame made with itself by promoting Freeman.

For Notre Dame, there’s reasonable hope Freeman will take another step, which is more important than his 19-8 overall record, the most wins by any Irish football coach in his first two seasons. When Freeman gambled on the quarterback position his first season and lost, he went out and got Sam Hartman and then Leonard. When he got caught flat-footed with one offensive coordinator hire, he hit a home run a year later. Last year’s mess at wide receiver was rectified by three incoming transfers this offseason.

Point being, Freeman has learned at every step. That must continue.

Riley Leonard had 4,450 career passing yards at Duke. (Joseph Weiser / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The QB

Freeman knew the Hartman experience fell short. Now Notre Dame gets a redo.

“I gotta make sure I say this the right way …  I don’t know if we always put (Hartman) in a situation to be as successful as he can be,” Freeman said. “I believe we have the personnel around Riley Leonard to make sure he’s successful.”

In other words, one former ACC quarterback will benefit from the struggles of another. Some of that comes down to the offensive coordinator, from the scattershot hiring of Gerad Parker to the surgical recruitment of Denbrock. Some of that will come down the receivers available, from last year’s roster failure to this year’s three portal additions.

And then some of that will come down to the quarterback.

Hartman arrived at Notre Dame from Wake Forest as a finished product, with 110 career touchdown passes on his resume, plus nearly 13,000 passing yards. Leonard is more developmental, making him a growth opportunity for Notre Dame’s offense. He’s thrown for just 24 touchdowns and 4,450 yards, adding 19 rushing touchdowns. If Denbrock can lean into Leonard the runner while developing Leonard the passer, the Irish may have something special.

Of course, Notre Dame felt that way with its quarterback last year too.

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Impact players

DT Howard Cross III: The preseason All-American is back for a sixth year, although a hamstring strain slowed him during training camp. At full strength, Cross ranks among the most disruptive interior lineman in college football. Only four tackles at the Power 4 level had more pressures than Cross (39) last season.

CB Benjamin Morrison: A potential first-round pick next spring, Morrison is healed from shoulder surgery that threatened his availability to start the season. After going head-to-head with Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, Morrison won’t be intimidated by anyone on this schedule. His confidence gives Notre Dame flexibility in how it plays coverages.

S Xavier Watts: The reigning winner of the Nagurski Trophy, given to the nation’s top defender, returns, but is he the best defensive player on his own team? Watts will be hard-pressed to duplicate last season’s seven picks. But he doesn’t need to replay all that for Notre Dame’s defense to thrive.

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TE Mitchell Evans: For a three-week stretch last season Evans was the best tight end in the country, combining for 17 catches for 280 yards against Ohio State, Duke and Louisville. A torn ACL suffered against Pittsburgh on Oct. 28 ended his season. Evans says he’ll be back for the opener, but it might take a few weeks for Notre Dame’s next NFL talent at the position to find his form.

LB Jack Kiser: Kiser returns for a sixth year to be “the dude,” in his own words, after playing part-time the past two seasons. His production per snap has been off the charts, as he was third on the team in tackles last season despite being 12th in snaps played. With a young linebacker room, Kiser will be asked to stitch the defense together.

Xavier Watts tied for the FBS lead with seven INTs in 2023. (Matt Cashore / USA Today)

Scouting report

Ask around about Notre Dame and the collective seems to rise above its individual parts.

“They’re smart and they play hard. Howard Cross is special, hard to block and his motor is freaking crazy. I don’t know if they have any freaks, though. No one scared us,” said a Power 5 position coach. “There’s not a game-wrecker like (Jeremiah) Owusu-Koramoah or (Kyle) Hamilton. Nobody like Jaylon Smith or Stephon Tuitt.”

Maybe that’s where Golden earns his money. Entering his third season, Golden has a reputation of pushing the limits of scheme … when he wants. In some games last season, Golden’s game plan felt vanilla. In other games, it felt exotic. And both approaches worked because one made you prepare for the other and vice versa.

“You turn on the USC game and it’s drop eight, totally different from every other game. They put so much on film that it makes you prepare for everything just in case they pull it out,” the Power 5 assistant said. “But they played us very basic, minimal press, a lot of man coverage. They played it far simpler than we thought. But they were super sound. You’re not getting any cheap stuff against Notre Dame.”

The issue may be the offense, where Notre Dame has been pedestrian at wideout. The Irish don’t have an NFL example at the position to use in recruiting and last year’s top threat was a freshman lacrosse player who walked onto the football team. Notre Dame just doesn’t look good enough at receiver.

“Look at the rosters of the ones that have won it. Georgia, of course Michigan has one, but  Clemson and Alabama too,” said a Group of 5 head coach. “That’s the difference with Notre Dame.”

Why Notre Dame will make the Playoff

Notre Dame got aggressive in the NIL space last offseason, landing its top pick at quarterback, three receivers, an edge rusher, two experienced defensive backs, plus a kicker with a 92 percent field goal rate. That’s on top of retaining arguably its four best defenders after draft decisions, plus rehiring Denbrock as offensive coordinator. The marriage of Denbrock and Leonard gives Notre Dame one of college football’s most athletic quarterbacks and a play caller who knows how to use him. That’s all on top of perhaps the easiest schedule among the true CFP contenders.

Notre Dame football has been built (and budgeted) to make the CFP with a roster that’s one of the oldest in college football. It’s not a perfect roster and staff, but the Irish arguably haven’t entered a season with expectations this high in nearly 20 years.

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Biggest hurdle to making the CFP

The entire offensive line will be under pressure as Notre Dame could start a front five with a combined six career starts against Texas A&M. The Aggies’ defensive line has multiple five-star talents plus last season’s sack leader in the Big Ten arriving via the portal. Can the Irish hold up in the trenches enough to let Leonard work?

How Freeman manages his third season is also an open question considering he’s 19-8 as head coach. Even forgiving his 0-3 start, Freeman coached Notre Dame to a brutal home loss to Stanford and oversaw road meltdowns at Louisville and Clemson. That doesn’t get to the end of last year’s Ohio State game. Can Freeman turn himself into a reliable winner?

Path to the Playoff

Notre Dame used to argue its 12-game schedule matched up with everybody else’s 13-game slate when it came to consideration in the four-team Playoff. The thought was the Irish don’t play a late-season FCS program like the SEC or some ACC programs, even though those teams had a conference title game.

The Irish might have to amend that argument. Notre Dame plays just eight games against Power 4 competition. All 67 programs in the Power 4 play at least nine. Thirty-seven play at least 10. On top of that, Notre Dame plays just three true road games. It all means Notre Dame has little margin for error.

The season’s ceiling will be measured by Texas A&M. Win in College Station and Notre Dame will be heavy favorites the rest of the way. Lose and the program will be under three months of pressure, as a second loss could knock Notre Dame out of the CFP.

Austin Mock’s projection

Our model does have some worries about the offensive line, but Notre Dame is firmly a top-10 team. The Irish have a 61.8 percent chance of making the Playoff and a 47 percent chance of hosting a first-round game, per the model, with a 3.1 percent chance of winning a national title for the first time since 1988.

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The Playoff Prospectus series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photo of Marcus Freeman: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)