It seems that just about every week, we hear about a crime or crimes committed in New York City in cases that make the national news due either to their particularly heinous nature, the fact that the alleged perp was an illegal immigrant, and/or the fact that they were committed by a repeat offender who keeps getting let off the hook by the woke criminal justice system in the Big Apple.
Then there are the cases like Daniel Penny’s, where law-abiding citizens become infuriated over the book being thrown not at a career criminal but at a humble guy who by all accounts was simply trying to neutralize a threat to himself and the people around him.
READ MORE: Extraordinary Revelations From Daniel Penny During Fox News Interview
Because these cases deserve national attention, and because we’re talking about a globally iconic city, crime facts and figures get brought up often by people who either want to draw more attention to the problems in hopes of making it a better place to live, or by those who think gaslighting over a very serious issue is okay to do.
The latter is apparently what stats guru Nate Silver decided to do ahead of the Christmas holiday by referencing NYC’s crime rate and suggesting it’s not as bad as people make it out to be. Further, Silver claimed that it all boiled down to whether you wanted to engage in narrative-pushing or base-rate analyses:
NYC has a considerably lower crime rate than most large American cities. It’s also a city of 8+ million where lots of crazy shit happens on a daily basis. I don’t blame anyone for being concerned but it’s sort of a test for whether you think in terms of narratives or base rates.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 23, 2024
It’s an argument that has been made before but which few are buying. As one might imagine, Silver’s tweet did not go over well with people who know better:
“Sorry ma’am, your daughter was burned alive on a subway train by a maniac freely roaming the city, and while we understand your outrage – it shouldn’t reflect poorly on the city’s base rate of violence. Have a great day.” https://t.co/mDEGYXXA60
— GregGutfeld (@greggutfeld) December 24, 2024
Crime is chronically underreported in NYC, including non-lethal violence. This is what happens when your DA is an anarcho-tyrant.
Your base rate is just the “narrative” you’ve chosen. It’s not reality.
— Justin Lee (@justindeanlee) December 23, 2024
When police stop arresting people because they know the criminal won’t be prosecuted, crime rates go down.
When the public stops reporting crime because nothing is done, crime rates go down.
Keep telling us nothing is wrong though, Nate.— JC (@FederalistJC) December 23, 2024
If there’s one lesson that should have been learned from the election it is that the time for trying to pull the wool over folks’ eyes on the issues that matter most to the American people is over. Clearly, Silver didn’t learn it but maybe the reactions to his argument will spur a rethinking and reassessing of his original viewpoint. Or so we hope.
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