Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin revealed Wednesday that the US government has strong evidence that North Korean military units have been deployed to Russia. This report lags earlier reports of North Korean fatalities in Ukraine (see Putin’s War, Week 136. Secret Tech Compromised, Dead North Koreans, and Putin Gets a Birthday Greeting), South Korean intelligence reports that North Korea is sending four brigades consisting of up to 12,000 soldiers to the front lines in Ukraine, and statements from Allied governments expressing concern over North Korean troops operating in Ukraine.
“What exactly they’re doing is left to be seen,” Austin said. “But yes, there is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia,” he added, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
I’m not sure how much of an inquiry we need to establish “what exactly they’re doing.”
Austin’s statement, coming so late, seems like another of Jake Sullivan’s ostrich-like moves, which allow him to deny things are happening. Only two days ago, the White House’s official line was that they were “looking into” reports of North Korean soldiers in Russia.
North Korea issued a non-denial denial.
“As for the so-called military cooperation with Russia, my delegation does not feel any need for comment on such groundless, stereotype rumors aimed at smearing the image of the DPRK and undermining the legitimate, friendly, and cooperative relations between sovereign states,” a North Korean representative said during a United Nations General Assembly committee meeting, using the country’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
What We Know
There is no secret that North Korean troops are in Russia. There is video of North Korean soldiers interacting with Russian civilians in Moscow.
Video and imagery of North Korean troops training in Russia appeared in open-source intelligence channels about the time the South Koreans announced DPRK troops were headed to Russia.
We also know that North Koreans are in Russia because some of them have already deserted.
Again, note that there were confirmed reports of North Korean deserters five days before the US government admitted there were North Korean troops in Russia.
Who Are They?
The consensus is that the North Korean troops are from their Special Operations Forces.
North Korean Special Operations Forces comprise about 20% of the North Korean Army, and “specialist forces” would probably be a better name for them. They specialize in airborne infiltration, reconnaissance, light infantry operations, and marine infiltration operations. Their training is focused on obtaining intelligence and conducting direct action against strategic targets. No one really knows how good they are. They seem to have had occasional successes infiltrating across or around the DMZ in very small numbers, but when they try larger and more complex operations, things tend to go pear-shaped.
This video is from their 1996 attempt to assassinate South Korean President Kim Young-sam.
They do put on a good show, though I know me and Mike Ford have done some of that stuff under the influence of good alcohol.
There are reports that North Korean pilots have been transferred to Russia.
It remains to be seen how well this plays out. Not only will the pilots need to undergo weeks, if not months, of transition training because the DPRK Air Force uses much older aircraft than the Russian Air Force. They will also have to overcome the language issues to permit communications with airbases and command and control aircraft.
There is no word if the Moranbong girl band will entertain the troops.
How Will They Be Used?
The concept of the operation seems to be to have them masquerade as Russians from the Far East. We saw the video of them drawing Russian gear from a warehouse.
At least some of them have been linked to a specific unit.
That could work for the short run, but I don’t think you can hide 12,000 North Koreans all that easily.
Australian General Mick Ryan has some thoughts on how well this will work.
It is hard to see how this intervention does more than create casualties for the North Koreans. They will not only be low on the totem pole for logistics, but they won’t have experience reacting to artillery strikes and drones. In addition, the North Koreans don’t seem to have brought armor or artillery, and coordination with Russian units will be a work in progress.
Implications
This intervention by North Korea in Ukraine on behalf of Russia definitely raises the ante. So far, South Korea has not sent weapons to Ukraine, restricting its aid to non-combat assistance and 155mm artillery ammunition. South Korea has said that if North Korean troops show up in Ukraine, it will respond.
South Korea will consider sending Ukraine “weapons for defense and attack,” according to the Yonhap news agency, which cited an unnamed senior presidential official on Tuesday.
Yonhap also reported Seoul may send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine to analyze North Korean battlefield tactics and assist in interrogations of captured North Koreans.
In a statement, South Korea’s National Security Council called for the “immediate withdrawal” of North Korean troops from Russia and pledged unspecified “phased countermeasures.”
This incident has reopened the NATO debate about individual nations sending troops to Ukraine. If North Koreans show up on the front lines, I think it is inevitable that one or more NATO nations will directly aid Ukraine in combat operations of some type.
The irony is that the weak-kneed strategy pursued by the Biden-Harris administration in the name of “escalation management” has made Putin’s War more dangerous than if they’d just resolved to curb-stomp him in 2022.
