Aaron Rodgers isn’t a coach but lobbied for more control when he was in Green Bay. He has that control in New York, but the Jets offense is sputtering.
The Ravens have righted the ship on offense and lead the league in yards per play. They’ve done it on the back of Derrick Henry and the fear the running back creates for defenses.
Bengals coach Zac Taylor’s offensive aggressiveness in regulation resulted in 38 points Sunday, but his conservativeness in overtime resulted in a loss.
More on these best and worst coaching decisions of Week 5:
Like: Ravens’ heavy personnel grouping
The potential of a Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson backfield is finally being realized. In weeks 3 and 4, Henry rushed for a total of 350 yards. In Week 5, the Bengals defense was scared to death of being trampled by Henry so it loaded the box, played in odd fronts and run blitzed.
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The Ravens used multiple tight ends and/or multiple backs on 63 percent of their snaps. From those personnel groupings, they presented the threat of the run but dropped back 27 times (not every dropback results in a pass attempt). On those dropbacks, Jackson was 17-for-23 (73.9 percent) and averaged 9.6 air yards per pass for 245 yards and three touchdowns. The Ravens tight ends (Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar) combined for 11 receptions, 177 yards and three touchdowns.
Stats from heavy personnel groupings
|
Explosive play rate |
16.30% |
|
First downs |
20 |
|
Air yards per attempt |
9.6 |
|
EPA per drop back |
0.61 |
Even when they weren’t using play action, the threat of Henry and the Ravens’ use of heavy personnel groupings drew the defense up and helped create explosive pass plays.
8:25 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Ravens had Andrews, Likely and Kolar line up to the right of the formation. Before the snap, Likely motioned to the other side.
From this condensed formation, they ran four verticals. The Bengals not only had eight in the box but they also had only three defensive backs on the field and four linebackers.
Jackson looked off free safety Geno Stone, leaving Kolar wide open down the opposite seam as he ran past linebacker Logan Wilson.
All-time quote from @charliekolar_ 😂 😂 pic.twitter.com/wNoaBOu2wt
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 7, 2024
Throughout the day, the Ravens took advantage of the Bengals’ loaded boxes and linebackers. Receiver Zay Flowers had a lot of space to work with on the sideline and caught several curls and comebacks. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken should continue to lean into his usage of heavy personnel with defenses scared of Henry. As soon as the Bengals took a safety out of the box, Henry gashed them for a 56-yard run to seal the game in overtime.
DERRICK HENRY THE KING.
THIS. GAME.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/pyESOlZxkH— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Dislike: The Aaron Rodgers offense
Even after Rodgers won two MVPs in Matt LaFleur’s Packers offense, he complained about his lack of control at the line of scrimmage and the constant use of motion and play action. He thought great quarterbacks didn’t need those types of training wheels. Great quarterbacks can control everything at the line of scrimmage and a high-motion offense doesn’t allow them to do that. Motions take time off of the game clock and with it, the ball has to be snapped with specific timing.
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With the Jets, Rodgers gets whatever he wants. From personnel to schematic choices, it seems like Rodgers has a say in everything. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Jets rank 24th in motion usage and 31st in play-action usage. The Jets offense doesn’t attempt to create advantages through scheme. It’s dependent on the quarterback’s getting the offense into the right play and for receivers to win straight-up one-on-one matchups.
Jets offense is really living on the extremes in terms of route profile.
They are top 3 in rate of:
Short fades, deep fades, short outs, ins, slants and go routes
And bottom 3 in rate of:
Deep crossers, medium crossers, deep outs, comebacks and digs
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 7, 2024
The advantage has to come from the quarterback’s ability to sniff out pressures and get the offense into the perfect protection or audibling into the right play like Peyton Manning. The problem is Rodgers hasn’t been able to give the Jets enough of an advantage to continue running his offense. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has every quarterback in the league guessing, but he dominated the chess match with Rodgers in London.
“They had a seven-up presentation and we got to something that we talked about,” Rodgers said after the game. “And I peeked the backside or something to the left to see if we were hot or not, and doing that, I totally lost sight of (Andrew) Van Ginkel and he made a nice play.”
2:30 remaining in the first quarter, third-and-6
On third-and-6, the Vikings stacked the line of scrimmage with seven defenders. Rodgers had to quickly figure out who was blitzing and who was dropping. Linebacker Van Ginkel was lined up to Rodgers’ right and safety Harrison Smith was lined up to Rodgers’ left.
Rodgers said after the game he had peeked to his left but he didn’t seem to see Smith coming or he likely would have thrown to the left. Instead, he threw toward the right where Van Ginkel dropped and was reading his eyes.
A common feature of Cover 0 blitzes is defenders reading the center. Whatever direction the center blocks toward, defenders on that side could drop. The center blocked toward Van Ginkel’s side, so he dropped.
ANDREW VAN GINKEL PICK-6!
📺: #NYJvsMIN on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/2FUojk8zLu— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Among qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 29th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback when blitzed. That’s just not good enough for a veteran quarterback.
The Jets rank 24th in EPA per play, which is worse than any season Rodgers had with LaFleur. Yes, Rodgers is aging, and we shouldn’t expect the Jets to be a top-10 offense, but for them to compete with the defense they have, they need to be middle of the pack. Even after giving everything Rodgers has wanted, they are far from it. There is one more thing Rodgers has on his wish list, but it might cost them a pretty penny to get Davante Adams from Las Vegas. General manager Joe Douglas will have to decide whether this team is worth continuing to invest in or whether he’s feeding into sunk cost.
Like: Zac Taylor’s aggressive decision. Dislike: Taylor’s conservative decision
The Bengals and Ravens played one of the best games of the season. We talked about how the Ravens created explosive plays. The Bengals created a few of their own through the greatness of Ja’Marr Chase. One call stood out. With the ball on their 41-yard line with 14 seconds remaining in the first half and one timeout, the Bengals could have tried to get into field goal range, but instead, Taylor went for the end zone with a well-designed play.
0:14 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10
The Bengals lined in a trips formation with three receivers to Joe Burrow’s left. Chase was lined up in the No. 2 position (second farthest from the sideline) and Andrei Iosivas was lined up in the No. 3 position (third farthest from the sideline).
Knowing the Ravens are a quarters team, the Bengals had Iosivas run a deep crosser to the opposite side to hold that side of the coverage.
The weakside safety’s job is to take the first deep crosser, which was exactly what he did. This left Chase one-on-one with the strongside safety Marcus Williams. Chase easily spun him around and beat him for the touchdown.
BURROW TO CHASE. 41-YARD TD.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/7ZRVX14NHN— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Taylor’s approach was different in overtime. After the defense recovered a fumble and returned it to the Ravens’ 38-yard line, the Bengals were positioned for a long field goal (56 yards). Taylor called three straight runs into loaded boxes that netted 3 yards to make it a 53-yard field goal attempt for Evan McPherson. Holder Ryan Rehkow couldn’t get a clean hold and McPherson missed the kick. The Ravens got the ball back and won the game.
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“I’m very reflective on things that I can improve on,” Taylor said after the game. “At the end of the day, the decision for me is we are in comfortable enough field-goal range for Evan, and I don’t want to do anything to disrupt that.”
Kickers are converting 50-yard field goals at a higher rate than ever, but the margin for error is still high. There’s a better shot McPherson would hit it from a closer distance. Though Taylor took responsibility for his approach, he’s made similar decisions in overtime games before that cost his team. Taylor has to keep his foot on the gas until the end. At 1-4, the Bengals truly don’t have any room left for mistakes.
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(Top photo: Naomi Baker / Getty Images)
