There is something for everyone in Week 18, but most of everyone is searching for finality this weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins fans probably won’t be too far from a TV remote over the next two days. Those teams’ playoff fates could depend on one another and as a result, their games are worth investing in. The same goes for the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the NFC South is still undecided.
And even if the postseason isn’t in your team’s future, the 2025 NFL Draft is. Believing their beloved team already ruined mock drafting for the next two months, New York Giants fans probably hope for a loss against a Philadelphia Eagles team expected to rest starters Sunday.
Our writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe discuss scenarios on both ends of the spectrum and everything in between as the final week of the regular season kicks off.
The Giants, who beat the Colts last week, face an Eagles team that will be resting starters at some point Sunday. Has New York truly ruined its path to a QB in the draft or is this a case of fans overrating tanking?
Keefer: I’m not sure how much credit the Giants should get for trouncing a Colts team that was never a real contender anyway. But New York did real damage to its draft spot, falling from No. 1 to No. 4 in a single afternoon, which undoubtedly will make things more dicey this spring as the franchise chases its next quarterback. When a team is resting most of its starters and has nothing to play for, I’m always picking the other side. Brian Daboll’s squad played hard last week. I expect them to do the same Sunday and come out with another victory.
Howe: The Giants haven’t ruined their path, but they made it more expensive. They need to hope the Patriots maintain control of the No. 1 pick because I’d expect them to auction it off to a team that’s ready to draft Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. If the Giants don’t want to pay that price, they should get in on Sam Darnold. The one thing that’s been overlooked with the draft discussion, though, is I’ve spoken to teams that aren’t necessarily convinced they’d be comfortable using a top-five pick on a QB in this draft class. These evaluations in the coming months will be fascinating. If the Giants love one of those quarterbacks, great — go get him. If they aren’t sure, they might need a bridge QB before trying again in 2026.
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Which NFL stars are starting, sitting or injured in Week 18?
Sando: Is there a quarterback in the 2025 draft worthy of the top pick? The evidence is unconvincing to this point. Are teams good at differentiating between quarterbacks early in the draft? Not necessarily. Have the Giants proven they can evaluate quarterbacks properly? Not to this point. My point is, holding the first or second or third pick isn’t the only variable or even necessarily the most important one for the Giants.
A 14-win Vikings or Lions team will be relegated to a wild-card berth and be forced to the road to start the playoffs. Would you change the NFL’s playoff format and give the top four seeds in each conference to the teams with the best records?
Keefer: I would. And this season is a perfect illustration why: a 14-3 team — either the Vikings or Lions — is going to open the playoffs on the road after excelling in the toughest division in the league all season. And that team will likely be playing on the home field of the NFC South winner, which will have won four games fewer. That could be the difference between a championship run and a first-round exit. Teams that consistently perform all season shouldn’t be punished for the fact that their division is excellent.
Howe: I don’t typically like the idea of making a significant rule change because a team gets the short end of the stick like this. It happens from time to time, obviously, whether it’s a case like this with a 14-game winner hitting the road or when a sub-.500 division winner stumbles into a home game. Winning the division should still mean something. But here’s where I’ll sit on the fence because there’s an incredibly valid argument to be made that a division winner should earn an automatic playoff berth and the seeds can then be determined by record. I don’t see anything wrong with that route, either.
The Minnesota Vikings’ Josh Metellus tackles the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in the teams’ Oct. 20 meeting this season. The two teams meet again Sunday night with the NFC’s No. 1 seed at stake. (Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
Sando: Owners have clung to the idea that division winners should get a home playoff game. Could the league strike a compromise where division winners get home games unless there’s a wild-card team that is “x” number games better in the win column? That might seem more equitable. I do love the Sunday night matchup with so much at stake, however. It’s bad for the loser of that game but good for the general viewing audience. Higher stakes are better than lower stakes.
It starts with a win over the Steelers on Saturday, but Joe Burrow just might pull the Bengals all the way from the dead to the postseason. If Cincinnati wins and gets the help it needs, is Burrow’s season enough to upstage Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the MVP race?
Keefer: I still expect Allen to win the MVP this season, and he’s a worthy recipient. But if I’m an AFC team, I don’t let Burrow anywhere near the playoffs: Even with a shoddy defense and an inconsistent kicking game, he’s played at an MVP-worthy level all season, and we’ve seen what he can do when he gets hot in January. My take: Burrow’s been even better than his sterling 2021 season.
Howe: It’s going to be pretty difficult for the Bengals to get into the playoffs considering everything that needs to happen this weekend, so I still believe Allen will win the award. Burrow has a legitimate case, as do Jackson, Saquon Barkley, and a few others, but Allen kept the Bills near the top of the AFC all season with a remade supporting cast and a defense that has also let them down at times. And he’s done it without having someone like Ja’Marr Chase, who would also belong in the MVP discussion if the Bengals were a playoff team. I see the Bengals beating the Steelers but falling short of the postseason with the Broncos playing the Chiefs’ backups and the Dolphins playing the Jets.
Sando: Recency bias is real and could affect some voters, but I think Jackson or Allen will win the award, no matter what happens with the Bengals in Week 18. The fact that Jackson figures to play more than Allen in Week 18 could help him leave a strong impression (positively or negatively) in the final week.
Bo Nix has a chance to make a final statement in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race against the Chiefs with the playoffs at stake. Can he do anything to close the gap with the betting favorite Jayden Daniels, who is also expected to play Sunday? Where does Raiders tight end Brock Bowers fit into the conversation?
Keefer: I think Bowers has a better case than Nix: his 1,144 receiving yards are the most in NFL history by a rookie tight end, and the previous mark was set way back in 1961 by Mike Ditka. Bowers has done this, I might, amid a dreadful season in Las Vegas in which three different middling quarterbacks — Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder — have started at least a game. But give the award to Daniels, who’s lifted a broken franchise back to the playoffs for just the second time since 2015.
Howe: I like everything about the way the Broncos have gotten the best out of Nix, but he’s not having anywhere near the type of season as Daniels, who should be an easy winner with the Commanders already locking up a playoff berth. I’d go Daniels, Bowers, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and then Nix. Considering the way Bowers, Nabers and Thomas have produced for bad offenses, wow, they have incredible futures.
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Pro Bowl Games rosters: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold headline first timers
Sando: My prediction is that Daniels will win the award comfortably as the most dynamic rookie quarterback and that Bowers will finish second as the most dynamic offensive rookie regardless of position. Nix probably comes in third. Is there anything he could do in a meaningless (for Kansas City) game? I don’t think so.
The Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy, Raiders’ Antonio Pierce and Patriots’ Jerod Mayo could be coaching their final games with their respective teams this week. Which of these jobs is most intriguing if they all become open?
Keefer: I’m leaning New England because the Patriots have a talented young quarterback in place in Drake Maye and, in all likelihood, the top pick in the draft. The Dallas job is far less appealing than most think: On top of the constant drama spurred by Jerry Jones’ weekly media visits, Dak Prescott is set to account for 30 percent of the Cowboys’ salary cap in 2025, which will continue to make it more difficult to add the necessary pieces to fix this team (think: defense). The Raiders, meanwhile, remain in quarterback purgatory, and that franchise isn’t getting any help from the owner, who keeps swinging and missing with head-coaching hires.
Howe: The Cowboys have the best roster and might be the only team of the three that should contend for a playoff spot in 2025. But long term, the Patriots have a rockstar QB who will be entering his second season and in all likelihood a No. 1 pick that should be flipped for multiple future assets, along with the most cap space — by a wide margin — to splurge in free agency. Plus, there’s no longer that pressure to be the guy who followed Bill Belichick or Tom Brady.
Sando: The Las Vegas job is most intriguing because we aren’t sure what role Brady is going to play and there is no established quarterback in place. That makes the job more fascinating than the other two. There’s nothing very intriguing about Dallas simply because we know what ownership is like, and we know Prescott is signed as the long-term quarterback. That is the most “known” situation of the three. New England could be attractive for any candidate whose evaluation of Maye is enthusiastic.
(Top photo of Joe Burrow: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
