Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are going to make this interesting, aren’t they? The stalwart AFC quarterbacks continue to fend off Patrick Mahomes atop the league’s MVP betting odds after leapfrogging him in late October.
Allen and Jackson are deadlocked at the top of the heap at +300 after Allen was leading slightly in Week 9. The two 2018 first-round picks are followed by Mahomes (+450), Jared Goff (+700) and rookie Jayden Daniels (+1000), who cracked the top five last week.
NFL MVP odds
Allen vs. Jackson: Who you got?
Allen’s Week 9 was highlighted by continuing his reign over the Miami Dolphins. He totaled 235 passing yards and three touchdown passes, but most importantly, he orchestrated a game-winning drive that was capped by Tyler Bass’ 61-yard boot with five seconds left in regulation.
TYLER BASS!!!!!!!!!!!!
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/0YUMp5a5qI
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 3, 2024
The Buffalo Bills’ four-game winning streak has seen strong play from No. 17, which follows his trend for the year. In seven wins, Allen’s numbers (19 total TDs, 241.4 passing yards per game, 118.5 passer rating, 71.1 completion percentage) fare much better than in his two losses (one total TD, 155.5 passing yards per game, 65 passer rating, 42.4 completion percentage).
Continuing his clean play (two interceptions, zero lost fumbles) will be key in Allen’s pursuit of his first MVP award. The Bills have matchups against other Super Bowl favorites (Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions) on the second-half slate, giving Allen the platform to show his best against the league’s best.
Jackson spent his Week 9 carving up the Denver Broncos like he was Michael Myers. He went 16-for-19 for 280 passing yards, had three TD passes and a perfect passer rating, his fourth time doing so in his career (the most all-time in NFL history). The three other times Jackson did so? All of them took place during his two MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023. Jackson also did this against a Broncos defense that entered Week 9 ranked No. 3 overall and No. 4 in pass defense.
Most games with a perfect Passer Rating (158.3) in NFL history
Lamar Jackson 4
4 players tied 3 pic.twitter.com/1izBwHbSCx— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 3, 2024
While Jackson’s legs weren’t needed in the win, his 505 rushing yards this year still lead all NFL QBs. That’s to go along with an absurd 20-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a league-best 77.0 QBR. Those numbers will be tested over the next four games against contenders, starting off next week in his second matchup of the year with the Cincinnati Bengals, who have a sleeper MVP candidate of their own.
The next tier
It’s crazy to think we live in a world where an undefeated Mahomes is not the leading candidate for MVP. But even at 8-0, it hasn’t been No. 15’s best personal season (11 TDs, nine INTs, 90.1 passer rating). Week 9 was his most vintage performance of 2024 though, as he guided the Chiefs to their 14th straight win by outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime. Mahomes notched 291 passing yards and three touchdown passes, his most scores in a game this season. A crazy stat for Mahomes: Prior to Week 9, Mahomes’ last three-touchdown pass game was in October of 2023 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP has had some ups and downs with his weaponry the last two seasons. But with DeAndre Hopkins acclimating to Andy Reid’s offense and Travis Kelce starting to find his groove, Mahomes should still be able to challenge for league MVP. Especially if KC is in play to become the first team to go 17-0 across a regular season.
— Deandre Hopkins (@DeAndreHopkins) November 5, 2024
Although Goff put up pedestrian numbers in the Lions’ ensemble win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick has kept himself in this MVP race with ultra-efficient play. During the Lions’ current six-game winning streak, Goff has totaled 22 incompletions for an 82.8 completion percentage and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-1.
In any six-game span in @NFL history, @Lions QB Jared Goff has:
– the highest completion percentage (82.8%)
– the highest passer rating (140.1)#OnePride pic.twitter.com/TCGmphgRFj
— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) November 4, 2024
Detroit is playing like the best team in football at the moment, and if Goff continues to play like a point guard out there and helps the Lions claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed, he will continue to be a name of note in the battle for MVP.
Daniels may be young, but he’s ready. He has lifted the Washington Commanders to a 7-2 record after securing a season sweep of the New York Giants. He hasn’t posted gaudy stats, but it’s been more about his impact. He’s playing efficiently (9-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 76.2 QBR, 71.5 completion percentage), he’s doing it with his arm and legs (459 rushing yards, four rushing TDs) and he’s helping Washington win games in ways it has not done in the 21st century. The Commanders franchise has not been 7-2 since 1996, when Brian Mitchell and Darrell Green were on the team.
Washington has been looking for a savior at QB since the rise and fall of Robert Griffin III. Exactly a decade since he last played a down for the franchise, it looks like Daniels is well on his way to joining RG3 as a Rookie of the Year winner in 2024.
Sleeper of the week
Bengals QB Joe Burrow (+1900) is proving to be a very interesting name to watch in the back half of the year. Yes, the Bengals are still only sitting at 4-5, but Burrow’s numbers are nasty overall (20 TDs, four INTs, 70.2 completion percentage, 76.3 QBR), and the Bengals are winners of three of their last four games. He dotted up the Las Vegas Raiders for five touchdowns in Week 9, marking the second time he’s done so in 2024.
Burrow has no bigger stage to turn the tide in the AFC North than with an ensuing Thursday Night Football matchup in Baltimore to kick off Week 10. If he’s able to knock off Lamar and the Ravens and eventually push Cincy into the playoffs after a 1-4 start, he will continue to creep up the list in consideration for the MVP award.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
