Last week, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the NFL MVP award would go to Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen. That all changed on Christmas Day after Lamar Jackson’s picturesque performance.
Jackson led the Ravens to a 31-2 win over the Houston Texans in heroic fashion, and the MVP race turned upside down — at least when it comes to the betting odds.
While Allen is currently a -250 favorite on the MVP odds board, Jackson has closed the gap at +160. Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is third at +1400.
Just a few days ago, Allen was at -1000 odds to win it, with Jackson at a distant +700.
On his way to closing that odds gap in the Christmas Day game, the already two-time NFL MVP finished with 255 total yards — 168 passing, 87 rushing — and three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). If that wasn’t enough, Jackson had a 48-yard touchdown run, which just happened to be the fastest of his career, clocking in at 21.25 MPH. After the game, the star quarterback joked that he was “jogging” on the vintage run.
Lamar Jackson on the 48-yard TD run, where he reached the highest top speed of his career at 21.25 mph:
“I was jogging.” pic.twitter.com/L7M8kCqQCr
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 26, 2024
Rewind to just a few weeks ago, and it looked like Allen was untouchable on and off the field.
Prior to Week 13, Allen had just proposed to singer and actress Hailee Steinfeld. After she said “Yes,” the star quarterback went on to have a once-in-a-lifetime outing, becoming the first quarterback in league history to record a passing, rushing and receiving score in the same game. If that wasn’t enough, the next week, Allen had the best fantasy football performance ever by a quarterback, with 51.88 fantasy points.
At that point, Allen’s MVP odds moved to -450, while the aforementioned Barkley was second on the oddsboard at +400. Jackson sat much further down, at +1400.
After the Bills’ big win over the Detroit Lions in Week 15, Allen became an even bigger favorite to win the award, with his odds shifting drastically from -450 to -1000. Jackson sat at +700 and Barkley at +1400, respectively.
But Jackson has been chipping away both on the field and the betting board, as the dual-threat quarterback now leads Allen in many categories, including passer rating, passing yards, rushing yards and passing touchdowns. And statistically speaking, Jackson is on pace to have an even better season than when he won the award in 2023.
NFL MVP odds
After Jackson’s heroics on Wednesday, Scoop City co-host Chase Daniel took to X to also debate the award.
The MVP was over in my opinion until Lamar went on #NFLonNetflix and put the entire world on notice.
3 Total TD’s
9 completions for 166 yards 2 TD
4 rushes for 87 yards 1 TD https://t.co/V6ow8UgQF6— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) December 25, 2024
Will voter fatigue come into play?
There might be some recency bias at play with Jackson’s big day, but if he were to win, it would be his third MVP award before Allen gets his first. The narrative might influence some voters at the end of the season, especially if the Bills finish with a better record than the Ravens when all is said and done. Buffalo is currently 12-3, while Baltimore is 11-5.
Next up for the Ravens? They get the Browns at home, a game they are already favored to win. As for the Bills, they play the Jets at home and the Patriots at Foxborough. On paper, both should be easy wins.
Either way, this race just got a lot tighter, especially for bettors holding onto Allen MVP futures tickets.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
