September is here, and that means that the NFL is just days away from getting underway.
Real football will be on our screens, not just preseason or college, but actual NFL games, starting with Ravens at Chiefs for the NFL Kickoff Game on Thursday. Maybe we’ll get a Taylor Swift appearance as well — who knows?
The start of the NFL season means that we can use my NFL Projection Model to bet on some games throughout the season as I’ve done the past few seasons. Let’s check out how we’ve done the last few years.
Last year’s record: 48-47-1, -1.25 units, -1.2% ROI
Overall record: 110-101-2, +0.79 units, 0.3% ROI
This week’s card is a little small to start. There’s at least one play I’m holding off on for a minute to see where the market goes, but I’ll add it soon, and there are a few others that I’m eyeing as well. I can promise that there will be more spread bets than total bets early in the year, as I’m not exactly sure how the scoring environment will be. If you haven’t watched any preseason or just happened to forget, the NFL has new kickoff rules this year. If I had to guess, we will see a slight uptick in scoring this year as a result of the new rule. How much? Only time will tell.
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for any updates. If you have any questions please reach out on social media or in the comments. As always, shop around for the best prices, as that will win you more money in the long run!
Best bets for NFL Week 1
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.
Buffalo Bills -6 (-110) vs. Arizona Cardinals
I’m really supposed to believe that the Cardinals are going to be improved enough to be less than a touchdown underdog in Buffalo? Call me skeptical. Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, and despite the Bills having a questionable receiving corps, I’m not sure the Cardinals have the defense to make it matter. The Cardinals’ defense ranks in the bottom five in my model, and even with their high offensive ceiling, that caps their ability to stay within this number.
Worst line to bet: Bills -6.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks -6 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
Listen, Bo Nix had a nice preseason and everything, but I’m supposed to believe that a rookie quarterback is going to go into a hostile environment against one of the toughest defensive schemes in football and cover? I think not. I expect the Broncos to be very passive on offense to ease Nix into the season. As for Seattle’s offense, I think they could have a great game against a pretty bad Broncos defense. If you can find a market with largest margin of victory, the Seahawks might be the best value on the board.
Worst line to bet: Seahawks -6 (-115)
Teaser of the Week
Last year’s record: 8-5, +2.00 units, 15.4% ROI
Colts +8.5/Cowboys +8.5 (-120)
(Photo of Josh Allen: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)
