Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, where I use a patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals, courtesy of TruMedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback, of course, we need volume, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before you go digging through our speculative bargain bin, make sure Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford are no longer available. Let’s at least take a quick victory lap on Trevor Lawrence (Week 8 QB4) and then bid him adieu as he crosses 50% rostership. Last week’s honorable mention, Bo Nix is in line for another good matchup against a pass funnel in Baltimore. The Ravens have not only allowed the most passing yards in the NFL but boast the weekend’s highest implied team total, making them a near lock to push the pace into shootout territory.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, Isaac Guerendo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Six Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
Ten Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Sean Tucker, TB — 0.83 FPS/Snap
- Dameon Pierce, HOU — 0.55 FPS/Snap
- Cam Akers, HOU — 0.53 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.53 FPS/Snap
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 0.50 FPS/Snap
- JaMycal Hasty, NE — 0.48 FPS/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.44 FPS/Snap
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 0.40 FPS/Snap
- Kimani Vidal, LAC — 0.38 FPS/Snap
- Blake Corum, LA — 0.36 FPS/Snap
Suboptimal RB options are the new norm if you happened to whiff on the first waiver run this year. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage of the season, when it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production. And that’s not to mention that somehow it’s the WRs, not the RBs, getting injured. Not to ignore this week’s lists, but most, if any, fantasy viability came and went as a temporary injury replacement.
If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout now and later, I would choose to face Carolina again this week (and every week after). Not only have the Panthers surrendered the most rushing yards and TDs, the offense is so bad even the backups can feast in garbage time — and that’s where we swoop in. The injury bug infested New Orleans’ locker room early on and apparently can’t get its fill. The latest addition is their sophomore third-rounder, former Horned Frog Kendre Miller. That leaves universally available RB Jamaal Williams (and his nose for end zone) to mop up in a pretty good spot if you find yourself desperate this weekend. If I’m purely stashing for a playoff run, I’d rather have both the talent and situation that comes with Buffalo’s Ray Davis.
Wide Receivers
Like with RBs, make sure this week’s universal adds Cedric Tillman, Keon Coleman, Gabe Davis and Jakobi Meyers belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Eight Available WRs w/ +16 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route, +0.30 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Darius Slayton, NYG — 40.8 Rte/Gm, 19.6% TPRR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
- Elijah Moore, CLE — 28.5 Rte/Gm, 20.2% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Ricky Pearsall, SF — 27.5 Rte/Gm, 16.4% TPRR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 27.3 Rte/Gm, 18.3% TPRR, 0.35 FPS/Rte
- Bub Means, NO — 21.8 Rte/Gm, 16.1% TPRR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 21.3 Rte/Gm, 18.8% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Troy Franklin, DEN — 18.3 Rte/Gm, 17.8% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
- KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 16.0 Rte/Gm, 33.3% TPRR, 0.36 FPS/Rte
Oof. The brutal run of WR injuries continued again last weekend! Combine that with the drop in passing league-wide and it’s never been tougher to find a plug-and-play fantasy wideout. Similar to the RB situation, this year has created such a carousel that most WRs listed above only gained relevance as stand-ins via injury. I happened to be watching Jaguars/Packers and, personal love affair with Trevor Lawrence aside, Jacksonville’s sixth-round 2023 selection Parker Washington looked pretty good (3-46-0). It’s the first time Washington earned any type of extended look, but he made the most of it in terms of route rate (image below), featuring a diverse route tree/alignment. Christian Kirk’s season is over, both Gabe Davis (shoulder) and Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) remain banged up and unable to log full practices, so targets should be available for the earning. If my guy Trevor Lawrence keeps up the good work, the Jags just may put up a fight against Philadelphia and give Washington a shot at a decent fantasy finish from obscurity.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top add, Cade Otton, isn’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets.
Four TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +5.5 Air Yards Per Target (Past 3 Games)
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — 23.1% Team Tar, 7.6 AY/Tar
- Noah Gray, KC — 9.6% Team Tar, 7.4 AY/Tar
- Grant Calcaterra, PHI — 14.0% Team Tar, 7.1 AY/Tar
- Johnny Mundt, MIN — 11.7% Team Tar, 6.4 AY/Tar
- Chig Okonkwo, TEN — 11.7% Team Tar, 5.9 AY/Tar
- Austin Hooper, NE — 11.1% Team Tar, 5.6 AY/Tar
Top Stashes
- RB: Travis Etienne Jr., JAX — Tank Bigsby is ascending for a Jaguars squad already looking forward to next year. Kansas City or Dallas could come knocking… who knows?
- RB: Khalil Herbert, CHI — Herbert can’t seem to sniff the field for Chicago and there are a couple of good teams in need of RB help.
Week 9 Sunday Streaming Service (<35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Malik Willis, GB at DET
- RB — Jamaal Williams, NO at CAR
- WR — Parker Washington, JAX at PHI
- TE — Mike Gesicki, CIN vs LV
- DST — Saints at CAR
(Top photo of Parker Washington, Jaguars: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
