The number of million-dollar suburbs is falling in New Zealand, with rapid price growth slowing considerably in recent years.
Ray White Group, Senior Data Analyst, Atom Go Tian, said the number of $1 million suburbs spiked in 2021 after prices surged for many suburbs.
But that growth has slowed over the past 12 months.
“From 2019 to 2024, the number of $1 million suburbs have doubled, but from 2021 to 2024 the number of $1 million suburbs have dropped by 18 per cent,” Mr Go Tian said.
“Assuming this trend continues, we can expect the number of $1 million suburbs will have a very low chance of increasing in the next 12 months.
“There will be a lot more suburbs at risk of losing their million-dollar status compared to the suburbs hoping to join the club.”
As of May 2024, there were 562 suburbs in New Zealand with a median house price of at least $1 million, according to Ray White.
More than half (54 per cent) of these are in Auckland, whereas Wellington has 36 and Christchurch only 21.
According to Mr Go Tian, there are still a number of suburbs that will likely pass the $1 million mark within the next 12 months.
“Ohakuri currently has a median house price of $998,000 and an average growth rate of 15.7 per cent over the last three years,” he said.
“Assuming prices grow another 15.7 per cent in the next 12 months, then we can expect houses in Ohakuri to reach $1,154,789.”
Other suburbs that are likely to pass the million-dollar threshold include Kokotau, Islands Tasman District, Puketitiri-Tutira, Clyde, Mokorua Bush, St Albans West in Christchurch, New Plymouth Central, Waimairi Beach in Christchurch and Fernside.
Meanwhile, Auckland dominates the list of suburbs most at risk of dropping their $1 million valuation.
The most at risk suburbs include Te Atatū Peninsula East, Puketapu-Eskdale, St Lukes, Mount Wellington North East, Hunua, Hilltop, Glenfield East, Hutt Central South, Ellerslie South and Khandallah South.
“The suburbs that emerged in this most-at-risk list are those who had the lowest growth rate over the last three years and the lowest valuation in 2024,” Mr Go Tian said.
“For example, St Lukes in Auckland ended June 2024 with a median house price of exactly $1 million and an average growth rate of -16.6 per cent over the last three years.
“If this trend were to continue for the next 12 months then St Lukes could be expected to reach a median house price of $833,670 during that period.”
