If recent polling numbers are anything to go by, this is going to be one interesting — if not extremely consequential — election. Take the recent polling data out of Arizona and North Carolina, for instance, which shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in both states while the down-ballot GOP candidates are struggling mightily.
Emerson College, in conjunction with RealClearWorld, released their last polling on Tuesday, showing Trump leading Harris 50 percent to 47 percent in Arizona and 49 percent to 48 percent in North Carolina. The survey also showed the GOP’s Arizona Senate candidate, Kari Lake, trailing her challenger, Ruben Gallego, by a whopping eleven points. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is polling nearly twenty points behind his Democrat rival, Josh Stein.
New: Trump winning Arizona & NC but it’s very close in both states, per Emerson. Gallego crushing Lake in AZ Senate race & Stein obliterating Robinson in NC gubernatorial contest pic.twitter.com/F6y0tl9Vti
— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) October 1, 2024
These numbers are in line with the RealClearPolitics polling averages, so there’s nothing crazy new here. But, the crosstab data, which you can see here, shows some interesting patterns. In North Carolina, nearly half of the respondents indicated the economy was the most important issue to them in 2024, with a solid 50 percent saying they thought Donald Trump winning would better for their personal financial situation. Sixty percent of the respondents said they were worse off financially than they were five years ago, but 50 percent think Harris will win the election.
Other issues of importance to voters in the Tar Heel state: housing, threats to democracy, education and “abortion access.” It will be interesting to see if Trump is able to widen the gap in post-hurricane North Carolina; his response to the disaster has been quicker and more heartfelt than Kamala’s, and that could see the needle move a bit more in Trump’s direction.
Meanwhile, over in Arizona, Trump enjoys a comfortable and consistent lead. The same cannot be said of Kari Lake, who is sinking fast and may find it impossible to work her way out of the situation. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are unpopular in the Grand Canyon state, with sentiment not being much better for Democrat governor Katie Hobbs. Like North Carolina, the respondents from Arizona say the economy is most important to them, followed closely by illegal immigration.
Do the downballot situations in North Carolina and Arizona mean Trump won’t have any coattails if he does win in November? The GOP has strong senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana, so there is some Trump effect in play, but it’s looking like the coattails won’t be long enough reach to Lake and Robinson. Of course, each candidate has to take most of the blame for their dismal showings in states that, issue-wise, are favorable to conservatives.
So, what does all of this mean for the GOP? Trump has upended everything these last eight years and this is his last election, so Republicans are going to have to think long and hard about post-Trump political realties. Candidate vetting and recruitment would be a good place to start.
The bottom line is that we’ve learned the hard way that polling isn’t an exact science and that the numbers may change during the last weeks of the election. Things may break further in Trump’s direction, especially as our country is lacking in leadership as the world burns. There’s a leadership void that Trump is actively trying to fill on the campaign trail, and that could pay off in spades.
Speaking of the campaign trail, RedState will live blogging the vice presidential debate tonight (Tuesday). You won’t want to miss a minute!
