LINCOLN, Neb. — Nebraska enters a football game on Saturday at Indiana as an underdog for the first time this season. No one around the Huskers is trying to downplay the significance of what’s riding on it.
“This is as big of a game as we’ve probably ever played,” coach Matt Rhule said of his time at Nebraska over one season and a half, “in terms of the stakes and all the things that get people excited — on the road, ranked team, best offense that we’ve faced, one of the best that we’ll see.”
The 16th-ranked Hoosiers remain a 6.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM, ahead of the “Big Noon Kickoff”-featured matchup on Fox.
Nebraska, at 5-1, has lost 25 consecutive games against AP-ranked opponents, dating to 2016. It’s 1-15 on the road in Big Ten play against ranked teams — the lone win at Penn State in 2011 as scandal rocked the Nittany Lions.
The storylines nationally this week center around 6-0 IU and its first-year coach-quarterback combo, Curt Cignetti and Kurtis Rourke.
“This is probably a top-10 football team that we’re facing,” Rhule said.
A time-tested formula has spelled doom in this situation for Nebraska.
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But another angle from which to examine Saturday in Bloomington does not paint an ominous picture for Rhule’s team.
The premise: All of this is new to Indiana. How will it react when, inevitably, an opponent, perhaps not Nebraska, punches the Hoosiers in the mouth? How will Indiana handle its role as the hunted team, not a team on the hunt?
And the key matchup, strength on strength when the Indiana offense takes possession against the Nebraska defense, might favor the Huskers. Why? Because Nebraska has done what it does well on defense for a longer time against better competition than Indiana has done well on offense.
It’s possible that IU under Cignetti, who guided James Madison to an 11-1 finish a year ago, has arrived at this moment early. It’s likely that Nebraska, with a senior-laden lineup and a freshman quarterback in Dylan Raiola who’s progressed ahead of the curve, won’t cave under the pressure.
That’s a theory, at least.
“It’s a hostile environment,” Nebraska wide receiver Isaiah Neyor said. “The crowd is loud. Just fall back to your training. Trust your training. Don’t do anything that you haven’t done in practice. Don’t go out there trying new things. Just do what you’ve been doing. Don’t make anything up.
“And enjoy these moments. You only get so many opportunities, so why not enjoy it? Why not have fun? These are moments that you’re going to remember for the rest of your life. So just make the most of these opportunities.”
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Nebraska and Indiana sit among 20 teams in the FBS that have matched or exceeded their 2023 win totals.
The Hoosiers have doubled their three victories from last year.
When Nebraska raced to a four-touchdown lead at halftime in Week 2 against Colorado, the Huskers hit a peak in their visibility index for the first half of the season. They jumped into the national rankings within 24 hours. But since Sept. 7, while Nebraska hasn’t fizzled, it’s dipped.
Nebraska overcame shaky halves offensively against Purdue and Rutgers. Against Illinois, it lost a 10-point lead and fell at home in overtime to squash the talk of a 7-0 start before the Huskers travel to Ohio State at the end of October.
Rhule never stated a goal to start 7-0. His goal was to get relevant and stay there.
“This is a relevant game,” the second-year coach said. “Next game is a relevant game. The game after that is a relevant game. They’re all relevant, based on what we’ve done in the first six.”
Conversely, Indiana trended up for the entirety of its first half of the season. Offensively, it leads the Big Ten in yards per game at 515. Defensively, it’s second. The Hoosiers have not played a team with a winning record today. They also have not trailed. Their margin of victory is 32.7 points per game. They’ve scored 80 points in the fourth quarter.
Indiana’s attack reminds Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White of no team he’s seen.
“Just because they operate so efficiently,” he said. “They know exactly what they’re doing and what they want to do.”
Nebraska on defense has held 14 consecutive foes to less than 400 yards. The Huskers and Ole Miss rate as the only teams nationally to allow less than 14 points and 300 yards per game with 20 sacks and 10 takeaways.
Nebraska aims against Indiana to become the first team since 2012 Notre Dame to hold its first seven opponents without a rushing touchdown. Indiana leads the Big Ten and is tied for most among Power 4 programs with 23 rushing scores.
Something’s gotta give.
“We don’t have to do anything special,” linebacker John Bullock said. “Just play our game.”
The start on Saturday for the Blackshirts looms as especially important in a charged road environment.
Nebraska might see the return against Indiana of cornerback Tommi Hill, the Huskers’ top NFL prospect who missed the past two games and most of the Week 4 loss against Illinois with a foot injury. In Hill’s place, USC transfer Ceyair Wright has stepped up nicely. He earned a Blackshirt, symbolic of a starting position, last week during the bye.
With Hill and Wright, Nebraska would gain flexibility in the secondary to move Marques Buford and Malcolm Hartzog, versatile pieces. It could generate an edge for the Huskers in the secondary. And with the expanding role of Javin Wright, back for the third game after he missed the first month of the season while managing blood clots in his right leg, White’s defense is developing a stronger, attacking identity.
“Execution wise, mentally, physically, emotionally, we’ve got to be at our best,” the coordinator said.
Several Huskers said they don’t feel like an underdog. The reality is, they are. And it’ll probably be that way more often than not against a tough, second-half schedule.
Fine with the coach.
“I much prefer that,” Rhule said. “I love turning on “(College) GameDay” and seeing them all pick the other team. That’s good for us. It’s just who I am and who a lot of our guys are. We are who we are.”
(Photo of Nebraska coach Matt Rhule and quarterback Heinrich Haarberg: Marc Lebryk / Imagn Images)
