The bracket is set and NCAA Tournament pools are being organized all over. If you’re waiting on something to sway you in one way or another on a few picks, I have full projections from my model for the men’s tournament.
UConn is my favorite to win the tourney and Houston is second, nothing controversial there. Tennessee and Arizona are viewed as the other two favorites in their regions to make the Final Four. My model likes the Volunteers and their draw so much that they are one of my best futures bets for the tournament.
Before getting into the numbers, it’s worth explaining what you’re looking at. I created a college basketball model to project outcomes of games. I take several metrics into account, adjust them for the opponent, and that creates a projection for each team on how likely they are to win a game against an average opponent. From there, I set up the bracket and simulate the tournament — all 67 of those games — one million times to get my projected odds. With this method, I can have odds for how likely it is for every team to reach each round of the tournament.
Full projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament
Below is the percentage chance each team has of winning a game in the round listed. UConn’s 39.3% chance below E8 is the chance the model projects the Huskies to have of winning in the Elite 8 and thus make it to the Final Four.
| Team | CHAMP | F4 | E8 | S16 | R32 | R64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
17.9% |
27.6% |
39.3% |
56.1% |
81.0% |
97.4% |
|
|
14.2% |
24.1% |
39.1% |
54.7% |
76.6% |
96.5% |
|
|
9.8% |
18.0% |
30.5% |
51.3% |
71.8% |
95.2% |
|
|
9.7% |
17.8% |
30.3% |
50.4% |
74.1% |
94.3% |
|
|
6.5% |
12.6% |
26.1% |
44.1% |
64.2% |
92.9% |
|
|
5.4% |
10.3% |
17.7% |
38.5% |
60.2% |
87.4% |
|
|
4.6% |
8.7% |
14.9% |
25.4% |
58.9% |
81.8% |
|
|
3.7% |
7.9% |
18.2% |
33.1% |
60.1% |
95.7% |
|
|
2.8% |
5.8% |
13.1% |
23.5% |
42.7% |
68.9% |
|
|
2.5% |
5.7% |
11.1% |
28.3% |
57.1% |
82.7% |
|
|
2.3% |
5.5% |
12.6% |
29.5% |
52.2% |
85.4% |
|
|
1.9% |
4.4% |
9.4% |
19.3% |
43.0% |
65.0% |
|
|
1.8% |
4.5% |
10.2% |
18.4% |
47.4% |
78.8% |
|
|
1.5% |
3.9% |
9.1% |
21.0% |
52.8% |
81.7% |
|
|
1.4% |
3.7% |
9.1% |
23.4% |
46.3% |
86.5% |
|
|
1.3% |
3.1% |
8.0% |
15.9% |
32.6% |
67.8% |
|
|
1.0% |
2.4% |
6.5% |
13.5% |
28.2% |
64.9% |
|
|
0.9% |
2.4% |
6.1% |
16.2% |
31.8% |
65.9% |
|
|
0.9% |
2.3% |
5.8% |
11.5% |
32.8% |
65.7% |
|
|
0.8% |
2.2% |
6.7% |
16.0% |
40.3% |
75.3% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.7% |
4.8% |
11.0% |
20.0% |
55.6% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.6% |
3.7% |
8.5% |
27.6% |
73.4% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.7% |
4.4% |
11.1% |
30.4% |
70.6% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.7% |
4.5% |
12.3% |
25.7% |
50.2% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.6% |
4.0% |
10.0% |
18.6% |
62.3% |
|
|
0.6% |
1.6% |
4.9% |
11.9% |
30.6% |
56.4% |
|
|
0.5% |
1.3% |
3.1% |
9.5% |
19.3% |
52.3% |
|
|
0.4% |
1.2% |
3.1% |
10.7% |
28.5% |
70.2% |
|
|
0.4% |
1.0% |
2.5% |
8.1% |
16.8% |
47.7% |
|
|
0.3% |
1.0% |
2.7% |
7.3% |
15.2% |
29.9% |
|
|
0.3% |
0.9% |
2.9% |
7.3% |
14.3% |
44.4% |
|
|
0.3% |
1.0% |
2.6% |
6.6% |
18.8% |
35.0% |
|
|
0.3% |
0.9% |
2.6% |
5.7% |
12.4% |
52.8% |
|
|
0.3% |
0.9% |
2.5% |
6.7% |
15.3% |
58.4% |
|
|
0.3% |
0.8% |
2.4% |
5.8% |
14.1% |
31.1% |
|
|
0.3% |
0.8% |
2.7% |
7.5% |
21.5% |
43.6% |
|
|
0.2% |
0.7% |
1.8% |
4.9% |
10.2% |
20.0% |
|
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
1.6% |
4.1% |
10.6% |
55.3% |
|
|
0.2% |
0.7% |
2.0% |
4.5% |
10.4% |
47.2% |
|
|
0.2% |
0.7% |
2.1% |
6.3% |
21.0% |
50.7% |
|
|
0.2% |
0.6% |
1.9% |
6.0% |
20.1% |
49.3% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.5% |
1.6% |
4.2% |
11.2% |
35.1% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.4% |
3.9% |
10.6% |
32.2% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.3% |
3.4% |
12.6% |
34.3% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.4% |
4.8% |
12.2% |
34.1% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.3% |
1.0% |
2.7% |
7.8% |
44.7% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.1% |
3.5% |
9.2% |
41.6% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.7% |
2.0% |
4.5% |
19.7% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
1.9% |
7.7% |
18.2% |
|
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
1.8% |
4.1% |
17.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
2.0% |
7.8% |
29.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
1.7% |
7.1% |
21.2% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
2.1% |
7.9% |
29.8% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.2% |
5.8% |
26.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
7.6% |
24.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.7% |
6.6% |
17.3% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
1.2% |
3.7% |
12.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
6.2% |
18.3% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
3.9% |
14.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
2.7% |
13.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
1.4% |
7.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
4.8% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
3.8% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.7% |
3.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
2.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
2.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
1.9% |
(Photo credit: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
