This week is one of, if not, the best in all of sports and that’s because of all the bracket games that everyone gets involved with. It’s also because we have four straight days of non-stop basketball. One might call it madness. While most are focused on filling out their bracket to beat their best friends, family or co-workers, there are 36 winner-take-all games this week that we can bet on. So while there might not be drama in your bracket when it comes to Duke versus Vermont, a sweat on the spread or total might increase your viewing experience.
If you read my article on the best futures to bet on during the NCAA Tournament, the process is the same for betting on the individual games. I use my college basketball projection model to create a projection for every single game. From there, I can compare that to the betting markets and have some action throughout the week. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like I’ll have any bets in the First Four, but discipline is key. Remember, we have 48 more games from Thursday to Sunday and we have four more rounds over the next two weeks. There is no shortage of action.
I may add some bets as the week progresses so make sure to check back here or on X/Twitter (@amock419) for any updated plays. As always, please shop around as some sportsbooks may have better prices than what I’ve posted below. If you have any questions, reach out in the comments or on X/Twitter.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise.
NCAA Tournament first round best bets
South Dakota State vs. Iowa State under 135.5 (-110)
South Dakota State +16.5 (-110) vs. Iowa State
Both of these teams play very slowly. My model has both teams projected in the bottom 20 percent of college basketball when it comes to pace so don’t expect very many possessions here. Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country. In fact, the Cyclones are the best defensive teams in my model. The one area where they are vulnerable is rebounding the basketball, but luckily for them South Dakota State is not a team that crashes the offensive boards very hard. A game with limited possessions because of pace and not a ton of offensive rebounds? Give me the under.
As for the spread, with a projected low-scoring game, 16.5 points is a lot to cover for a team in Iowa State that isn’t an offensive juggernaut. As always when betting these smaller schools against a high-seed, a blowout is certainly possible, but I think South Dakota State has enough offensive juice to keep this within the number.
- Worst line to bet: Under 135 (-110)
Akron +12.5 (-110) vs. Creighton
There isn’t a specific matchup in this game that I love for the Zips, but I just can’t get to this price. So my justification outside of my numbers is that Akron has a short trip to Pittsburgh and the local crowd will give them a boost. What’s interesting about this game is that Creighton rarely gets to the free-throw line and rarely allows its opponents to get to the free-throw line. Akron doesn’t exactly excel at either of these things, but that’s something I’m going to be watching if Akron wants to pull off the upset.
- Worst line to bet: Akron +12 (-110)
McNeese vs. Gonzaga under 150.5 (-110)
The matchup to watch in this game is McNeese’s defense and its ability to make Gonzaga turn the ball over. Will Wade knows how to coach and will have a good gameplan for Mark Few’s squad. McNeese is one of the best teams in the country at turning its opponent over while Gonzaga is one of the best at not doing so on offense. McNeese also wants to force you into shooting threes and while Gonzaga is a pretty decent 3-point shooting team, they don’t shoot a ton of them. That’s the chess match. Which coach can figure out how to make the other team uncomfortable. If Gonzaga is not trying to turn the ball over and forced into settling for shot from distance, I think this game has a good chance of coming in under the total.
- Worst line to bet: Under 149.5 (-110)
Charleston vs. Alabama under 173.5 (-110)
Charleston +9.5 (-110) vs. Alabama
College of Charleston has a couple matchup advantages that I think they can expose and slow down this Alabama offense. First, Charleston is a very good offensive rebounding team while Alabama is closer to average. That’s going to help Charleston slow down the fastest team in the country and, well, the best defense against this Alabama offense is not allowing them to have the basketball. Second, Charleston is one of the best at not turning the ball over and Alabama does not have a defense that will turn you over. All this leads to fewer opportunities for Alabama to have the ball and a shorter game.
- Worst line to bet: Under 172.5 (-110), +8.5 (-110)
Colgate +13.5 (-105) vs. Baylor
You’re probably seeing a theme here, but Colgate has some matchup advantages that I think will help the Raiders stay within the number here. Both teams play with below-average pace so limited possessions will help us out here. Baylor loves to get on the offensive glass, but Colgate is a pretty good rebounding team. Sure, there will be a step up in talent, but if Colgate can really hurt what Baylor is trying to do if the Raiders can avoid giving the Bears multiple chances on a possession. Furthermore, Baylor is a 98th percentile team when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. Colgate, however, is a 98th percentile team when it comes to limiting opponents free throws. I’m not sure if the matchups will hold up, but what Baylor excels at on offense, Colgate does a pretty good job at defending.
- Worst line to bet: Colgate +11.5 (-110)
(Photo of Jeff Woodward: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)
