Nate Silver and Allan Lichtman Throw Down in Catfight Over 2024 Election Predictions

We’ve been covering a lot of the polls, focus groups, betting markets, and other indicators in regard to the election. 

But there was a funny catfight between two people who are election prognosticators, Professor Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver. 

Lichtman has a system where he applies true or false questions to 13 questions. if there are six or more false answers, the challenger — in this case, former President Donald Trump — would win. But Lichtman has interpreted his keys and he’s predicting Kamala Harris will win. 

This is how he’s interpreted the keys:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects [sic] major changes in national policy. TRUE
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Now, I have a few questions here.  

He explained at the beginning of September that he has not answered 12 and 13 yet, because he said he thinks that could flip. But he said even if they flip, that’s only five answers that would be false. But the answers to both would seem clearly to be both false at this point, since Biden-Harris had a huge military failure in Afghanistan and no success. 

Then on top of that, number 11, Trump is undeniably charismatic. That would be six “true” answers, right there. We could also argue about “sustained social unrest” with radical Gaza protesters or the questions of “significant independent” with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. throwing his support to Trump. 

But Silver had a few things to say, when Lichtman seemed to imply that Silver was coming around to agree with his prediction about Harris:

The funny thing is if you actually apply his keys correctly based on how he’s applied them in the past, they predict a Trump victory. More about this soon lol. https://t.co/9WJprODwD6

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024

The funny thing is if you actually apply his keys correctly based on how he’s applied them in the past, they predict a Trump victory. More about this soon lol.

That ticked off Lichtman, who said Silver didn’t know “how to apply [his] keys”: 

Nate. you don’t have the faintest idea about how to apply my keys. You are neither a historian or a political scientist or have any academic credentials of any kind. Remember you were wrong when you said the keys could early predict Obama’s reelection.

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) September 27, 2024

Nate. you don’t have the faintest idea about how to apply my keys. You are neither a historian or a political scientist or have any academic credentials of any kind. Remember you were wrong when you said the keys could early predict Obama’s reelection.

Silver shot back: 

I’ve spent way too much time on this and have a lot of receipts from how you’ve applied your keys in the past! At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary? https://t.co/9QqlRUCaqt

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024

I’ve spent way too much time on this and have a lot of receipts from how you’ve applied your keys in the past! At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary?

Allan let’s just say the little tricks you’ve played with the Keys in the past will come back to haunt you! The Keys shall be respected: they will outlast this little rivalry of ours. And they clearly predict a Trump win! https://t.co/5WwxYPf6V2

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024

Allan let’s just say the little tricks you’ve played with the Keys in the past will come back to haunt you! The Keys shall be respected: they will outlast this little rivalry of ours. And they clearly predict a Trump win!

Then he finished off, citing to Lichtman. 

“No Man nor Beast shall have the power to Turn the Keys, for the Keys are Eternal and True.”

– A. J. Lichtman; V. I. Keilis-Borok (Nov 1981). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 27, 2024

Lichtman then blasted Silver on YouTube [Note: The video has been archived in an X post]. 

Allan Lichtman vs Nate Silver! pic.twitter.com/a4GRNmzJT8

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) September 28, 2024

Meow, catfight!

We’ll see shortly who is right, in a little over a month. 

READ MORE: Gallup Drops Stunner of a Poll for Trump That Could be the Game Changer