The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the second elimination race of the playoffs: The Bank of America ROVAL 400 at a redesigned Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. Below the cut line? Joey Logano (starting at 13 points below), Daniel Suarez (-20), Austin Cindric (-29) and Chase Briscoe (-32). On the bubble above the cut line: Chase Elliott (+13), Tyler Reddick (+14) and Ryan Blaney (+25).
But this week’s favorite isn’t even among the playoff contenders. Shane van Gisbergen, the star of road courses, is at the top of the odds to win and would complete a non-playoff-driver sweep of Round 2 wins.
And, of course, all this is happening against the backdrop of some of the biggest news in NASCAR history: Michael Jordan (and others) suing the league. We get into that as well as this week’s favorites, long shots and more NASCAR drama below, with help from our NASCAR experts Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
The Bank of America ROVAL 400 is this Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
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With all the drama around the lawsuit against NASCAR brought by Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports, what’s the temperature or vibe at the races? Are people abuzz? No change, just focused on playoffs?
Jeff: The lawsuit was all anyone wanted to talk about in the garage at Talladega Superspeedway last weekend, and it was by far the dominant topic at our weekly tweetup (meeting with followers on X) with fans. Sure, there’s a focus on the competition, but there’s a lot of curiosity and speculation about what will happen with the lawsuit and where it’s all headed. Multiple drivers acknowledged it was the biggest story to come along in NASCAR for quite some time, so they’re very interested in what happens as well. After all, the outcome could affect everyone.
Jordan: The playoffs are the secondary topic right now, understandably so, considering one of the individuals suing NASCAR happens to be Michael Jordan, and this lawsuit has the potential to upend NASCAR’s business model. The timing is unfortunate as you’d like to see what happens on the track take precedence over what is going on off of it, but the reality is a lawsuit of this magnitude with the people involved was always going to consume the majority of the oxygen.
Now that Talladega is over, what’s your (and others’) assessment of the tweaks they made to the cars to attempt to keep them from going airborne? Any takeaways?
Jeff: Thankfully, no cars went airborne in their one big test at Talladega — and when we say “big,” we mean BIG. The 28-car crash was the largest in NASCAR history (in terms of the number of drivers involved) and all of them appeared to keep four wheels on the ground. So, in that sense, the changes worked as planned. A bigger topic turned out to be the officiating (there were some missed or unusual calls) and the fuel-mileage racing that has become dominant on superspeedways with the Next Gen car (which at least looks good while they’re going four-wide, even if running slowly).
Jordan: Great to see all the cars stay on the ground after seeing the scary wrecks involving Corey LaJoie and Josh Berry. This has been a point of emphasis for NASCAR in the weeks since and its hard work paid off. That’s a win.
Heading into the second elimination race of the playoffs, I’ll ask again: Who is most in danger of elimination, and what does a simple glance at the standings not tell us about potential risers and fallers?
Jeff: The cutoff line isn’t particularly close heading into the Charlotte “Roval,” which is a road course/oval Frankenstein sort of creation. The four drivers below the cut line are either going to have to win or point their way in, but they’ll probably need help for the latter (in the form of a driver above the line getting crashed or having some sort of mishap). Without a victory — which will be difficult considering the likes of Shane van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger are in this race — it could be adios to Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe. That said, the Roval has some treacherous corners that could cause chaos (see below).
Jordan: That Logano is only 13 points below the cut line makes you think he could find a way to climb his way above it and doesn’t necessarily need any help in the way of misfortune striking someone ahead of him in the standings. But outside of Logano, the trio of Cindric, Suarez and Briscoe are in essentially must-win scenarios.
The Charlotte Roval has a new layout for Sunday and the race is expected to be chaotic. Can you fill us in on the significance of the changes and what could happen?
Jeff: Charlotte could’ve just used the perfectly good oval, which didn’t even get to see a full race in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 this year. After all, intermediate tracks like the 1.5-mile oval are NASCAR’s best product right now with the Next Gen car. Instead, the track decided to shake up the stale Roval and seemingly create an opportunity for an even crazier race (you can decide if that’s a positive or not). In particular, Turn 7 is a diabolical corner for stock cars. They’ll almost have to come to a complete stop to make the turn — and if they take the proper racing line by swinging wide, it means a competitor could just stuff his car underneath and slam someone out of the way. It’s practically inevitable.
Jordan: The tweaks to the Roval layout were to induce some excitement to a configuration that had lost some of its bite in recent years. And the expectation is that Turn 7 will be a hot spot — particularly late in the race when the gloves come off and drivers become increasingly desperate. It’s a recipe that should make for a chaotic elimination race.
Who is your favorite to win on Sunday?
Jeff: Sorry this is boring, but I have to go with Shane van Gisbergen. He’s the favorite for good reason. I picked him for the last road course race at Watkins Glen, and he barely lost out to Chris Buescher in a thrilling finish. But in a race where most of the playoff drivers have to worry about points, SVG can flip the stages and go for the win — setting up a potential Round 2 sweep of all non-playoff drivers winning.
Jordan: Whether it’s in a Cup or Xfinity car, AJ Allmendinger is so good here. And the added advantage, similar to SVG, is that he’s not racing for points on Sunday, meaning he can set up his strategy accordingly. That’s a bonus.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: I’m a bit shocked Chase Briscoe is +6000 with his playoff life on the line. He’s basically in a must-win situation and this is the kind of track he excels at. In 2018, with his career on the line, Briscoe came through with his first career Xfinity Series victory by winning at the Roval and earned himself a full-season ride for the next year. Also, driving a race car for three hours might be the most peace-and-quiet Briscoe gets this week; his wife Marissa welcomed twins on Tuesday.
Jordan: How is Bowman only listed at +1800? Seriously. This is a driver who’s never finished outside the top in five starts at the Roval, and, by the way, leads the series in points scored on road courses this season. Bowman winning Sunday would not be an upset.
Odds for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 winner
Odds, via BetMGM, update live.
(Photo of Shane van Gisbergen: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
