Opening Day is here as the 2024 MLB season is officially underway. Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres played each other last week in Seoul, South Korea, but Thursday signals the traditional start to the season.
It’s only fitting that the Dodgers played in the first games that counted. They’ve been the talk of baseball throughout the offseason because of the additional star power they added to a team that won 100 games last year. It’s no secret that the Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series, but that doesn’t make it a fait accompli either.
Stating the obvious, but first the Dodgers have to get to the playoffs, either by winning their division (which is the expectation) or earning one of the three wild-card spots. Then there’s the matter of which teams they face in the playoffs on their way to the Fall Classic and who comes from the AL side. So even though the season is just getting started, let’s take a look at BetMGM’s current odds for eventual division champions, World Series winner, and mention a couple of teams that could be a surprise postseason participant come October.
Odds are from BetMGM.
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Sleeper Playoff teams
Even if the Dodgers are already being anointed as the next World Series champion with the Braves, Astros, Yankees, and Orioles in the next tier, it doesn’t change that fact that six teams from each league will make the playoffs. Every year there’s always a team or two that defy expectations by qualifying for the postseason. Here is my pick in each league to fill that role in 2024.
Detroit Tigers
The Twins are favored to repeat as AL Central champions, but I think this is a division that’s there for the taking. A.J. Hinch seems like the perfect manager for this team and new general manager Jeff Greenberg somewhat quietly added a few intriguing veterans. The two biggest are starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, but it’s a pair of homegrown arms – Matt Manning and Casey Mize – along with the emergence of Tarik Skubal that could prove to be the difference between closing the gap in the division or winning it outright.
San Diego Padres
It won’t be easy to replace the production of Soto or Snell or Hader but there’s also plenty of talent left on this roster. The NL West is pretty rugged, save for the Rockies, but the Padres don’t have to focus on keeping up with the Dodgers. They just have to secure one of the three wild-card spots. Among non-playoff teams last year, no one had a better run differential than the Padres (+104). So the 82-80 record is somewhat misleading. It’s extremely difficult to quantify, but this could be a case where the subtractions lead to better team chemistry (there’s also a new manager, former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt), which paves the way to better on-field results.
Division Winners
AL East
The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees open as co-favorites, but I lean towards the former. The Orioles are not only the defending division champions, but they also addressed their biggest hole by trading for Corbin Burnes. The Yankees made their own big acquisition in Juan Soto but there are plenty of questions regarding their pitching. Elsewhere, it feels like the Tampa Bay Rays are being disrespected. Tyler Glasnow was traded and some others from last year’s 99-win team are gone, but manager Kevin Cash has consistently gotten the most out of his roster. Only three other teams have a longer current streak of making the postseason than the Rays (five).
AL Central
The Minnesota Twins are the considerable favorites (-125) to repeat, but that’s more reflective of the current state of this division. The Twins subtracted more than they added, which is why I wouldn’t sleep on the Detroit Tigers (+350). The Tigers finished nine games behind the Twins but made strides in the second half of last season. Detroit signed some veterans to bolster the roster, but if the younger guys, such as starting pitcher Tarik Skubal, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, and outfielder Riley Greene, take a step forward, this team could grow up in a hurry.
AL West
The Texas Rangers are the defending World Series champions but the Houston Astros are the heavy favorites to win the division. The Rangers do have health concerns with both their lineup and starting rotation, but it’s not like they blew everything up after winning the championship. The Seattle Mariners could be a bargain at their current odds. They just missed out on a wild-card berth last season, have what many consider to be the best starting rotation in all of baseball, and added several veterans that could be major contributors, provided they stay healthy.
NL East
Only the Dodgers are open as bigger favorites in their division than the Atlanta Braves, and for good reason. They bring back basically everyone from last year’s 104-win team and have added seven-time All-Star Chris Sale to the rotation. There’s not much mystery to the rest of this division. However, the Washington Nationals could end up with more wins than the Miami Marlins because of a rash of pitcher injuries that arose during spring training.
NL Central
The odds think the St. Louis Cardinals will go from worst to first, but they also acknowledge that it could be a very tight race in this division. There’s not much of a gap between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, but the latter could be the more appealing wager, considering their last playoff appearance in a full season was in 2013.
NL West
The Dodgers are the clear favorite but don’t forget about the rest of the teams. The San Francisco Giants received a recent boost following the signings of Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, but I’m more interested in the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres. The former are the defending NL champions and added more than they subtracted from that team. The latter no longer has Juan Soto in the lineup or Snell and Josh Hader on the mound. Still, they should reap some immediate benefits from the trade with the Yankees, and general manager A.J. Preller put the finishing touches on his offseason pitching makeover by trading for Dylan Cease.
World Series Champions
To no one’s surprise, the Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series but the Braves are just behind them. Back in October, it was Atlanta that had the best odds but Los Angeles leaped ahead after their eye-opening offseason. The Yankees are the favorite in the AL, jumping past the Orioles and Rangers. Thank you, Juan Soto. It also appears that the Yankees’ gain is the Rangers’ loss as the defending World Series champs have seen their odds get longer since hoisting the trophy. Does this make them a buy?
It’s also interesting to note that the Dodgers’ spending spree negatively impacted every other NL team’s World Series odds, except for one. The Cardinals have seen their odds to win it all improve since October. While the team was very aggressive in addressing its pitching deficiencies this offseason, the roster hasn’t gotten any younger. In fact, if betting on birds is your thing, I would suggest a closer look at the Orioles, whose World Series odds have improved slightly since adding a new ace to their nest.
In terms of the teams that Vegas has soured on even more since the end of last season, it makes perfect sense to find the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox and even the Milwaukee Brewers in that group, but the Red Sox have seen a steeper increase in their World Series odds than the Miami Marlins, among other teams, while the Rays and Padres also have dropped further back in the pack. I can understand the pessimism when it comes to the Red Sox but I’m not quite as ready to paint the Rays and Padres with the same brush.
