Mets-Braves win probability chart was bonkers, plus Pete Rose's legacy

Date:

Share post:


The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic’s daily MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.


Not to repeat myself from yesterday, but … what a day. The Mets–Braves doubleheader was an instant classic, the Giants shook up their front office and Pete Rose, baseball’s enigmatic all-time hits leader, passed away at 83. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup.


Instant Classic: Mets and Braves clinch postseason

There’s a non-zero chance that two or three decades from now, you or I will engage in a conversation that includes, “Remember that doubleheader between the Mets and Braves? What year was that … 2024?”

It was a situation primed for drama: win one and you’re in. Lose both and you’re out. All the while, the Diamondbacks had to sit idle, half a country away, waiting to see if they were a playoff team.

Game 1 delivered drama, alright. Look at this win probability chart!

There was the six-run rally by the Mets in the eighth inning, followed by a four-run bottom of the eighth punctuated by a catastrophic mistake by closer Edwin Díaz (he forgot to cover first base). Manager Carlos Mendoza stuck with him, however, and after Francisco Lindor’s cinematic ninth-inning homer to retake the lead at 8-7, Díaz locked down the save. The Mets were in the playoffs.

It may have been the most entertaining game of the year for anyone whose mailing address does not end with “GA, 30XXX.”

An easy win in the nightcap seemed in reach for the Braves, with ace Chris Sale scheduled to start and the Mets with little left to play for. But just before the game, it was announced that Sale was unavailable due to back spasms.

Instead, it was Grant Holmes and the bullpen, holding the Mets to just three hits and clinching a playoff berth with a 3-0 win. They’ll go to San Diego to face Game 1 starter Michael King, with the Mets returning straight back to Milwaukee. (Also: Snakes Dead.)

Both New York and Atlanta are stories of resilience. The Mets were 11 games under .500 on June 2. Injuries have cost the Braves Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr. and others (including, it would appear, Sale for the wild-card round).

And yet, here they are: postseason-bound. Speaking of …


Ken’s Notebook: What will Ohtani do in his first postseason?

From my postseason preview

Consider two points of reference. The first is the 2023 World Baseball Classic, the closest thing Ohtani has experienced to a playoff atmosphere. In 33 plate appearances, Ohtani batted .435 with a 1.345 OPS. He also produced a 1.86 ERA in 9 2/3 innings, concluding the tournament in dramatic fashion by striking out Mike Trout.

The second, more current point of reference is Ohtani’s performance in September. His .393 batting average and 1.225 OPS were his best marks in any month this season. For the second straight month, he also hit at least 10 homers and stole at least 15 bases. In AL/NL history, the only other player to produce one such month was Carlos Beltran in August 2004.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, in envisioning how Ohtani might handle his first postseason, told The Athletic’s Andy McCullough, “I think it can go one of two ways.” Ohtani will either get jumpy and press, or he will take his typically controlled at-bats and dominate. Here’s betting on the latter.

Oh, and another thing. Some in the game believe that if the Dodgers advance far enough, the possibility of Ohtani pitching will come into play, even with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman saying, “it’s not really an option.”

One rival scout who witnessed one of Ohtani’s recent bullpen sessions said he was “letting it rip,” as opposed to throwing like a pitcher who was continuing his rehabilitation from major elbow surgery. Ohtani, the scout surmised, was preparing to pitch much sooner than next season.

More here.


Big Swings: In San Francisco: Zaidi out, Posey in

We wrote this recently, when Andrew Baggarly reported that Buster Posey had taken an outsized role in Matt Chapman’s contract extension:

“This doesn’t look great for (Farhan) Zaidi, whose six seasons in San Francisco have produced a 445-413 record — but only one team over .500 (that 107-55 team in 2021 sure was something).”

Yesterday, the Giants made it official, moving on from Zaidi just a year after signing a three-year extension. In his place, Posey has been hired as the new president of baseball operations.

This move will take a few years before we’re able to assess whether it was a good idea. For starters, while Zaidi probably had to go, we really don’t know much about Posey that doesn’t involve the description: “Really good at baseball.” In sum: Well, he sealed the deal with Chapman?

Maybe that’s a good omen for the coming years in San Francisco. Alternately, there’s an unfortunate hypothetical future scenario in which the team is faced with the PR nightmare of having to fire Literally Buster Posey. From the Giants.


Passages: Pete Rose dies at 83

I recently finished watching “Charlie Hustle & The Matter of Pete Rose,” HBO’s four-part documentary on the life of Pete Rose. It paints an unflinching portrait of Rose’s life and career beyond the gambling scandal that landed him on baseball’s “permanently ineligible” list.

Sure, Rose was a hometown hero to the city of Cincinnati. His 4,256 hits are 67 more than second-place Ty Cobb, and the accolades are multitude: Rookie of the Year, 17-time All-Star, 1973 NL MVP, three-time batting champ, three-time World Series winner, World Series MVP.

Yet he’s not in the Hall of Fame, which is the first thing a lot of younger fans know about Rose. It was painfully clear in the documentary how much Rose hoped to overturn the 1989 ban. It was also clear why it didn’t happen — Rose couldn’t seem to get out of his own way.

He often seemed frustrated and confused as to why his apology didn’t undo more than a decade of dishonesty, or why doubts persisted when he would deny darker accusations — including statutory rape allegations.

When it comes to dealing with people who have publicly made mistakes, the difficult trick is allowing room for true remorse while also recognizing the need for accountability (it’s a sentiment that Jayson Stark illustrates more beautifully here than I ever could). For Rose, that accountability never really seemed to sink in. Even the admissions were accompanied by consternation when they didn’t provide immediate redemption. It was good enough for his fans, why wasn’t it good enough for everyone else?

On Monday evening, news broke: Rose had died at age 83. He leaves a complicated legacy that runs the gamut — from disgust to admiration and a lot of stops in between.

Tyer Kepner’s exhaustive obituary does a good job of examining Rose’s legacy. Meanwhile, Evan Drellich spoke to former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent, who was the deputy commissioner when Rose was banned.


Handshakes and High Fives

(Top photo: Edward M. Pio Roda / Getty Images)





Source link

Alexandra Williams
Alexandra Williams
Alexandra Williams is a writer and editor. Angeles. She writes about politics, art, and culture for LinkDaddy News.

Recent posts

Related articles

How Josh Metellus became the key to Brian Flores' innovative Vikings defense

He wears the perfect number: 44.What type of football player typically wears 44? It feels too high...

Sabres mailbag: Will Kevyn Adams make a significant trade? Does Trevor Zegras fit?

The Buffalo Sabres started their California road trip with a 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings...

Has the expanded College Football Playoff made more games 'matter' down the stretch?

The expanded College Football Playoff is doing exactly what it intended to do, allowing more teams more...

Are the Blues considering a Jim Montgomery reunion? It's not out of the question

Based on the timing of the St. Louis Blues’ announcement last May that Drew Bannister was signing...

Chelsea's Reece James out of Leicester game with hamstring injury

Chelsea captain Reece James has suffered another injury setback after being ruled out of the Premier League...

Geno Auriemma takes over the GOAT mantle, plus Army's CFP dreams

The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive...

How Bills' Tyler Bass is getting ready for his next big kick: 'You’re going to go through storms'

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — What are the odds the Buffalo Bills’ season comes down to a Tyler...

Fantasy football brain games: The upside of Tommy DeVito and trust issues with Javonte Williams

This article is all about decision-making and avoiding all the biases that can lead you to make...