Market share report: Restored faith in Courtland Sutton, playing the odds with Isaac Guerendo and more

Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.

Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”

Running Back Touches

This is a terrible week for RBs on waivers — there’s not going to be much actionable here for free.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is barely more than 50% rostered and is clearly the No. 1 RB for the Giants now, totally supplanting Devin Singletary. But Tracy suffered a concussion and is unlikely to play in Week 9 (based on a typical timeline). Maybe that makes him an easier trade target. I’d pay for about low-end RB2 with upside from there to move up to high end. You just don’t want to pay for RB catches, especially from Daniel Jones. But Tracy should be involved there.

Isaac Guerendo was 23rd and there are multiple issues here, including a bye in Week 9. But you may get him for 5% of FAAB or less as a result and then you’d be betting that Christian McCaffrey isn’t going to come back in Week 10, as many expect (the Niners are hedging suddenly, and are known to be evasive with injury information). You’d also be buying the odds that McCaffrey has a setback, which seems high relative to the base rate. Then there’s Jordan Mason to contend with. Again, a very narrow path here, but big potential rewards for a de minimis bid.

Braelon Allen is pretty much indistinguishable from Tyler Allgeier (who were both around 20%). If I had to bet, I’d say Allen is the new goal-line back for the Jets.

Raheem Mostert is too widely rostered. Jaylen Wright didn’t chart, but I’d roster him if I could on the chance there’s an injury in the Miami backfield — highly likely.

Jaleel McLaughlin got some life at RB43. I can’t see him ranking higher though. The Broncos had an unusually high play count in Week 8. It is a good matchup in expected points in Week 9 against Baltimore.

The argument for Kimani Vidal is that J.K. Dobbins has struggled his past five games or so. But Dobbins is still efficient for the year. And Vidal is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. You really have to squint hard to see a sixth-round pick who’s made one play supplanting Dobbins at this point. But that’s all I have.

Receiver Targets

Calvin Ridley was No. 2 but would have to be a trade target, and that’s going to be tough off a 150-yard week.

Elijah Moore (14th) actually charted higher than Cedric Tillman (33rd). Both are at least 80% available. I’d put Tillman first because he hasn’t failed yet and was a third-round pick with size and some speed. Jameis Winston is very likely to remain at QB the remainder of the year and he gets his receivers involved.

Zach Ertz is still widely available though he had his first really strong target week against the Bears. He is the No. 1 TE in the model in Week 8.

Josh Downs is available in most leagues. He has to be rostered. Anthony Richardson should be benched on merit and Joe Flacco is great for Downs. But the Colts basically cut the cord by benching Richardson on Tuesday. Richardson’s big weakness is he’s started about 20 games since high school, so how is not playing going to fix his weakness of having not played enough? Are there enough NFL starts to basically move on from Richardson? I guess so. Downs is a hold now and obviously an add on waivers if he’s still there.

My faith in Courtland Sutton was rewarded in Week 8 and I’m very bullish against the Ravens in Week 9. Again, though, he is a more a trade target than a waiver add. He was WR18 in the model. I’d rank him about there this week — and that’s going to be miles ahead of consensus.

Christian Watson is rostered in less than half the leagues but not playable if Jordan Love has to sit, and Love was said to be week-to-week. Supposedly his MRI came back clean, however, which seems insane given the talk after the game by the coaching staff. He’s now viewed as likely to play in Week 9. Watson was WR31 in the model and the Packers said they needed to get him the ball more.

If you’re looking for a cheap tight end, Will Dissly was the TE6 in the model. But the issue is that Hayden Hurst may return soon and as early as Week 9 (week-to-week with a groin injury).

(Top photo of Courtland Sutton: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)