We tend to talk a lot about trade possibilities for the Toronto Maple Leafs (at centre and on defence) in these parts. Less so on what exactly they have to trade.
That’s the goal of our project here.
We’re looking only at assets the Leafs could conceivably move ahead of the March 7 trade deadline, not the ones we know aren’t going anywhere. We’ve bunched them into five tiers — from the assets that figure to have the most value (tier 1) to those with the least (tier 5).
Tier 1: ‘Don’t even ask unless you’re serious’
Easton Cowan
Cowan is the best prospect of a team with one of the weakest prospect pools in the league. If there’s a reason to hold onto him at (basically) all costs, it’s that. Cowan’s ceiling is arguably higher than anyone in the bunch, especially at forward. What that ceiling is exactly is hard to determine at this point. Is Cowan a future star or more likely to become a feisty supporting cast member in the middle six? The latter feels more likely. (The Athletic recently had Cowan ranked as the 45th best-drafted prospect in the NHL.) Star or not, the Leafs stand to benefit if Cowan can come in and help them in the not-so-distant future while making entry-level coin. Likely a Marlie next season who ends up playing some games for the Leafs (the number dependent on his NHL readiness), Cowan turns 20 in May. The most (only?) conceivable Cowan trade scenario is a blockbuster that nets the Leafs high-end talent with term on their contract(s) — the acquisition of, say, 24-year-old Dylan Cozens, (which doesn’t feel like the right fit for this season for a variety of reasons). Cowan isn’t being dealt for rental, in other words.
2027 first-round pick
The Leafs don’t own a first-round pick in this summer’s draft; that pick was moved in the 2023 swap with Chicago for Jake McCabe (and Sam Lafferty). The Leafs do own their first-rounder in 2026 and 2027 though. The ’27 pick feels slightly more valuable simply because there’s more unknown that much further into the future. Will the 2026-27 Leafs, for example, still be a top-10(ish) team in the league, when the core on defence is that much older, when Auston Matthews is 29 and William Nylander has entered his 30s? Maybe. It’s just harder to be sure, all the more so when Mitch Marner’s future with the team is still TBD — though that also impacts the ’26 pick, too. Does that mean holding onto the 2027 pick at all costs? Not necessarily. The player the Leafs stand to pick there — more than two years from now — won’t be playing for them until perhaps 2030. The team’s contention window may have closed by then. That’s the argument for using the pick now, to boost the team’s chances while the window is still wide open, not worry about the state of the future Leafs.
Tier 2: ‘We’re listening but don’t hold your breath’
Fraser Minten
The Leafs may prize Minten as much as Cowan. The organization adores his smarts, professionalism and maturity and has raved about it ever since he was drafted in 2022. The other thing with Minten, who turns 21 in July: He’s a young centre for a team that badly needs more help down the middle, not just now but later. Minten will very likely become a full-time Leaf next season. (Were the Leafs to add a centre with term ahead of the deadline, for instance, Minten’s short-term NHL prospects may change. He might not be a Leaf in that scenario.) With all of that said, the upside isn’t as high with Minten as it might be with Cowan. Minten probably tops out as a third-line centre, and maybe even a fourth-line centre if the offence doesn’t come along. The Leafs are well aware of that. It’s what figures to limit his value as a trade asset. (He wasn’t among the top 100 in that aforementioned ranking of the NHL’s top-drafted prospects.) The upside with Minten is that he’s a surefire future NHLer who figures to carve out a long career as one of those players coaches adore. Only if they can get back a centre for the short and long term do the Leafs figure to consider moving Minten — and even then they would probably be hesitant.
Fraser Minten is a surefire future NHLer who figures to carve out a long career as one of those players coaches adore. (Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)
2026 first-round pick
The Leafs figure to remain a good-ish team again next season (Marner’s uncertain return notwithstanding), likely making this a late first-round kind of pick. As with the 2027 first-rounder, the player picked here won’t be helping the Leafs for a few years, if ever. All of this is to reiterate that a team in the Leafs’ position might be better off taking this particular pick and turning it into a player who helps now — and later. McCabe, for example, has been more valuable to the Leafs for the past two years than the 2025 pick they gave up for him. Counterpoint: The Leafs need (a lot) more young talent in their system and this pick — the best one the team has in the next two drafts — represents the most hope. And yet, this particular pick might hit the sweet spot for a trade. Moving it would allow the Leafs to hold onto Cowan and Minten, both of whom stand to help the NHL team in the next year or two, sooner than the player selected here, but also net a player(s) who could aid the team in its present-day Stanley Cup pursuit.
Tier 3: ‘We’re listening …’
Ben Danford
The top prospect on defence for a team that’s struggled mightily to develop NHL defencemen and doesn’t have much coming at the position otherwise. (Topi Niemelä, who’s fallen off the organizational radar, is No. 2, according to The Athletic.) That gets to the root of the argument for holding onto Danford, the team’s top pick (31st) at the draft last summer. So, in some ways, does the age of the defence, with all the key parts over 30. This group could use some young blood eventually. On the other hand, Danford, like Minten, seems to have a high enough floor but a low ceiling. He might end up topping out as a third-pairing defenceman, the kind of player that’s relatively easy to find and replace. So if the Leafs can take a future third-pairing defender and turn him into a more impactful player for now they would have to seriously consider it.
2025 second-round pick
The best pick the Leafs have in the upcoming draft, a pick they got (along with a seventh-rounder) when they handed Florida their second-round pick last summer. This selection will end up falling near the end of the second round, which limits its value somewhat. It feels like the kind of pick that gets flipped for a rental or as a secondary piece in a larger transaction.
Artur Akhtyamov
The fourth of 12 Leaf picks from the 2020 draft, Akhtyamov looks like he might be the likeliest of the bunch to make the NHL. Akhtyamov feels like, and probably is, the shiniest goalie prospect the Leafs have, yet he’s also only two months younger than Dennis Hildeby, the 23-year-old who was picked two years later, also in the fourth round. Unlike Hildeby, this is only Akhtyamov’s first season in North America. Another full season with the Marlies next year and perhaps Akhtyamov can become Joseph Woll’s tandem mate for the 2026-27 season (or perhaps more likely, the season after that). The presence of both Woll (age 26) and Hildeby theoretically means the Leafs can afford to move Akhtyamov (though that kind of thinking led to one of the worst trades in franchise history). Goalies tend not to fetch much in trade, especially young, unproven ones.
Dennis Hildeby
Trading Hildeby before the deadline may not be wise for the Leafs given the health risks associated with Woll, Anthony Stolarz and third-stringer Matt Murray. Hildeby has already played in six games this season and backed up in some more. There’s a world in which his services are required again this season. Though he’s had a rougher second season with the Marlies (.899 save percentage) and didn’t exactly impress in those Leaf appearances, Hildeby represents another potential tandem mate for Woll in the not-so-distant future. Stolarz can become an unrestricted free agent after next season. If things continue to go well for him (and he stays mostly healthy), Stolarz may price himself out of Toronto, all the more so with Woll already locked up for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. In the case that Stolarz isn’t re-signed, Hildeby, an RFA this summer, could end up as the Leafs No. 2. All of which is to say that he probably has more value to the Leafs than teams elsewhere.
Trading Dennis Hildeby before the deadline may not be wise for the Leafs. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Nikita Grebenkin
He’s young (turning 22 in May) and fun and might one day be capable of becoming an energy guy for the Leafs in the bottom six. As for trade value, it’s likely as a secondary piece, at best, in a larger deal.
Tier 4: ‘Yeah, we’d be open to that’
Nick Robertson
The Leafs probably would have given in to Robertson’s trade request last summer if another team made it worth their while. Robertson’s value has likely only dipped since. He’s on pace for only 14 goals while playing just 12 minutes a night for a Craig Berube team he doesn’t really fit. In 134 career regular-season games, Robertson has scored 25 goals. Not enough for a player who doesn’t contribute much in other ways. With that said, Robertson is only 23, far from a prospect but young enough to think that there still might be more there. A weaker team might well see a young, determined winger who can score a lot more if given the chance. And it might be right. Robertson has logged 117 minutes on the power play … in his career. If the Leafs are healthy, and add a body or two up front ahead of the deadline, there’s a good chance Robertson, who needs a new contract after this season, doesn’t crack the playoff lineup. That is why it makes sense to move him ahead of the deadline, if only for a pick that helps get another deal done or ups the asset pool slightly.
2025 third-round pick
A third-round pick netted the Leafs Joel Edmundson last spring and Luke Schenn the year before that. In short, this could be the pick that brings in yet another big, rugged defenceman for the playoffs.
Pontus Holmberg
At this time last year, I thought Holmberg was a worthwhile trade target. He wasn’t playing much for the Leafs but seemed to have enough versatility to be a useful young-ish part. Holmberg has played more regularly this season, as high as the No. 2 centre spot in the lineup, but hasn’t shown much growth. Even still, Holmberg, who needs a new deal after this season (RFA), might be worth hanging onto as a depth forward who can play anywhere in a pinch (with real limitations offensively).
Tier 5: ‘They can help you, I swear!’
Max Domi
One way that Domi gets moved before the deadline: The Leafs need to move money out and deal him, somehow, to a team that needs NHL players and doesn’t care much about his bloated contract (which has three more years on it with a cap hit of $3.75 million).
Max Domi has three more years on his contract with a cap hit of $3.75 million AAV. (Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)
David Kämpf
Kämpf has some value to the Leafs, just not enough to match his contract, which carries two additional years and a $2.4 million contract.
Topi Niemelä
Whatever value Niemelä might have once had as the Leafs’ top prospect not even two years ago is gone. Niemelä never looked the part of an NHL defenceman, but maybe there’s a team that still sees a sliver of hope.
Marshall Rifai
Rifai has the feel of a prospect but isn’t really. Rifai will turn 27 next month and has played only two NHL games (both last season). Is there a world in which he can be a 7-8 somewhere in the NHL?
Conor Timmins
Timmins might have the tiniest bit of value as a mobile right-shooting defender who’s only 26 and still under team control beyond this season. He’ll be an RFA, with arbitration rights, this summer.
— Research courtesy of PuckPedia, HockeyDB and Hockey Reference.
(Top photo of Easton Cowan: Jason Kempin / Getty Images)
