The Toronto Maple Leafs’ 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday wasn’t a dominant effort, but it was the kind of game the team has become accustomed to — and comfortable with.
Shots and chances were relatively close, but Toronto got a little more finishing from its top talent than the Lightning got from theirs. Goals were traded throughout the game, but the Maple Leafs never trailed and Tampa Bay couldn’t earn a tie after Auston Matthews opened the scoring in the first period.
The Maple Leafs are getting plenty of experience clinging to narrow advantages, which seems to be paying off. The team is now 16-1-0 when leading after the first and 20-0-0 when ahead after two periods.
The win included a few elements Maple Leafs fans are used to seeing, like a William Nylander breakaway goal and Matthew Knies beating up on the Lightning, but it nearly included something new from Matthews.
Matthews went for the Michigan
Johansson knew it pic.twitter.com/VfNG6WrvsA
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
That’s an ‘A’ effort, but we’ll give the whole team a B+ for an even-keeled performance.
Unit grades
L1 (Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner): A
The top unit was effective in multiple ways on Monday. The group managed the puck well and sustained steady offensive pressure for much of the game, but also showed quick-strike ability off the rush for two of Toronto’s goals.
AUSTON MATTHEWS 🚨
Rifle off the rush! pic.twitter.com/2tAXUVxiWr
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
MATTHEW KNIES 🚨
Two-goal lead restored! pic.twitter.com/tTweaklzM2
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
Those goals were encouraging for the Maple Leafs for a couple of reasons, with Matthews showcasing a shot that’s looked more dangerous since his latest return from injury and Knies using a nifty move to break a five-game goalless drought.
Late in the game, the top guys were stapled to the ice and they put in some fine defensive work, with Marner scoring on the empty net to lock in the win.
L2 (Bobby McMann– Pontus Holmberg –William Nylander): C+
These guys were relatively inconsistent as a trio for most of the night. They had a couple of moments of brilliance, most notably a clean break for McMann…
Nylander waits and lays it out perfectly for McMann
a different path may have given McMann a rebound goal pic.twitter.com/GfTT5wzkFX
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
… but they spent plenty of time in their own zone, getting out-attempted 14-6 in their 11:10 at five-on-five.
We will bump the grade up thanks to Nylander’s breakaway goal in the second. Technically, he was taking a shift on the fourth line, but it’s safe to say he was the driving force behind Toronto’s second goal.
WILLIAM NYLANDER 🚨
BREAKAWAY MASTER! pic.twitter.com/zTtwdNltq7
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
L3 (Max Domi – Fraser Minten – Nick Robertson): B
This line hadn’t played a single second together before Monday, and Minten was playing his first NHL game since mid-December. That didn’t stop the unit from getting off to a fine start, outshooting Tampa Bay 5-0 in their first-period minutes and getting some quality chances.
Rielly to Domi to Minten pic.twitter.com/uJxI0ahOde
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
the bounces pic.twitter.com/Dt93NleU2X
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
The new line wasn’t as reliable from then on, and with the Maple Leafs consistently protecting a lead, Berube rarely trusted it to get on the ice.
L4 (Steven Lorentz – David Kämpf – Connor Dewar): C-
The fourth line didn’t play much or make much of an impact when it did. Their most significant mark on the result was Kämpf’s penalty in the third, which resulted in Tampa Bay’s third goal.
Dewar played just 5:10 as the group was largely stuck on the bench.
D1 (Morgan Rielly – Jake McCabe): B+
One game isn’t enough to know if pairing Rielly with McCabe is a good idea in the long term, but the duo had a functional outing on Monday. If nothing else, Rielly was able to earn far more ice time (20:45) than he did during his rough night against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday (16:27).
McCabe had dubious on-ice numbers and didn’t do much to stand out, but the goal here was to get Rielly going, and he showed some jump, ranking second on the team with five shot attempts at five-on-five — with a couple coming from dangerous areas. He also assisted on Nylander’s goal.
While the new pair was on the ice for Tampa Bay’s second-period goal, they weren’t particularly at fault for the Nick Paul deflection on a shot from the half wall.
D2 (Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Chris Tanev): B+
This pair served as the shutdown group, seeing plenty of the Lightning’s top line and keeping them off the board. Both Ekman-Larsson and Tanev did a good job winning puck battles in their own zone and transitioning the puck up the ice.
For most of the night, it was a stronger performance for the Swede as he earned an assist on Toronto’s first goal and finished with better on-ice numbers (58.53 expected goal rate) than his partner (49.13 percent) — but Tanev evened things up with a brilliant play to clear the puck from the goal line with less than four minutes left.
Chris Tanev to the rescue! pic.twitter.com/bMByhthNJs
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
D3 (Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins): B
Like the third line, these guys struggled to get on the ice, with Toronto protecting a lead late in the game. Neither defencemen earned more than 14 minutes of ice time or stood out for their individual contributions.
For what it’s worth, their minutes went smoothly, as each had an expected goal rate above 75 percent at five-on-five.
Power play: A+
Toronto got its first and only power play at a critical juncture after letting Tampa Bay get within a single goal.
The Maple Leafs only needed 48 seconds of that opportunity to take the wind out of the Lightning’s sails.
MATTHEW KNIES 🚨🚨
BATTLE FOR THE PPG! pic.twitter.com/5MZT5iVKQr
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
Penalty kill: C-
Toronto was only short-handed twice, and it couldn’t keep Tampa Bay off the board.
The Lightning were able to whip the puck around a bit on the first opportunity, but for the most part, the Maple Leafs kept chances to a minimum. The second time, they weren’t so lucky as Paul found more than enough space in front of the net to draw his team within one.
Goaltender (Joseph Woll): B
The raw quantity of rubber that Woll saw wasn’t overwhelming (30 shots), but he answered the call on several challenging attempts from Tampa Bay.
Woll allowed three goals, two coming off Paul’s work around the crease while the other was a rocket from Darren Raddysh.
Darren Raddysh brings the Lightning within one pic.twitter.com/KvJwhR2hh5
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) January 21, 2025
The 26-year-old’s effort was far from flawless, but his steady presence helped prevent the Lightning from getting a foothold in the game during the second period when they carried the play, and he got his team through the third despite letting a couple by him.
Game score
What’s next?
The Maple Leafs remain at home and face the Columbus Blue Jackets on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.
(Photo of Auston Matthews: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
