The general consensus following Saturday’s horrific assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in Butler County, Pennsylvania, was that, politically, it would inure to his benefit and to President Joe Biden’s detriment.
Now, that’s a cynical assessment, particularly in light of the loss of life and the injuries sustained by others, notwithstanding the former president’s own fortunate escape from more serious harm. But we live in a highly charged political world, and we’re smack-dab in the middle of a highly charged election season.
Post-incident polling is now coming out and, as expected, it reflects a bump for Trump.
A slight majority, including some who aren’t voting for him, say Trump’s words in the days since the assassination attempt have been more unifying than divisive. Voters feel the same way about Mr. Biden’s response to the tragic events, too.
But it is Trump with the growing advantage in the vote. Trump is up five points nationally now, and three across the key battleground states. To put that national lead in context: it’s been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate has won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five.
RELATED:
Trump Leads! First Post-Assassination Attempt Poll Shows Big Swing Towards Trump
That “put this in context” note is significant. We’re still three-and-a-half months away from the election, and, given the roller coaster ride we’ve been on thus far, it would be utterly naive to expect there won’t be some additional curveballs thrown our way, but it’s still notable — particularly given the level of disdain and outright hatred a sizable portion of the electorate holds for Trump. The irony is that the left has thrown everything and the kitchen sink at the man, and yet he just keeps getting back up, raising his fist in the air, and fighting on.
I don’t share that observation solely as a conservative Republican who plans to vote for Trump in November. That’s the sense that many have expressed over the past few days, including those who are decidedly not in the Trump camp.
Mark Zuckerberg’s Unexpected Reaction to Trump Assassination Attempt
CNN’s Van Jones Gets Real: ‘The Last Time I Was at a Convention
That Felt Like This Was Obama 2008′
VAN JONES: “A bullet couldn’t stop Trump. A virus just stopped Biden.”
“The Democrats are coming apart. The Republicans are coming together.” pic.twitter.com/QDfCXaIVty
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 18, 2024
Between the attempt on his life and a wildly successful week at the RNC, culminating in Trump’s acceptance of the nomination Thursday night, the polling is reflecting an understandable spike for the former president.
Today’s model update. A lot of polling in since yesterday, and we’re seeing an unmistakable spike for Trump, who is now up almost 4 points in our national polling average. https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/6o8L3VKWSI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 19, 2024
The question, of course, is whether that will hold through November 5th and be reflected at the (physical) polls when voters finally have their say.
