So what happened to that bounce that Kamala Harris was supposed to get after the DNC and maybe the interview that she finally got around to doing?
Turns out fake “joy” and a train wreck interview don’t tend to give you much of a bump.
We’ve reported on how Nate Silver’s model wasn’t looking good for Kamala. It had Trump up in the Electoral College forecast, as well as in most of the battleground states.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 14
🟦 Harris: 56.7%
🟥 Trump: 42.7%
.
August 29
🟥 Trump: 52.4%
🟦 Harris: 47.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 60-40%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/sYNPuTSk3q pic.twitter.com/RX8BHgcu0U— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2024
READ MORE: Nate Silver’s Latest Election Projection Model Will Crush Liberal ‘Joy’
Silver said:
But she’s also got another problem: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania. A high-quality poll showing Harris ahead in PA would make a big difference right now.
But instead of that, the new Trafalgar Group poll confirms there’s no real bump for Harris, the honeymoon may be over, and their numbers in Pennsylvania are not good for Harris. Indeed, the survey has Trump up by 2.1 points in Pennsylvania, 47 to 44.9 percent, up 1.1 in Wisconsin, 47.3 to 46.2 percent, and basically a dead heat in Michigan, with Trump up by a smidgen, 47 to 46.6 percent.
New @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #MI General Election #poll (8/28-30)
47.0% @realDonaldTrump
46.6% @KamalaHarris
3.7% Others
2.7% Und#MIpolReport: https://t.co/CrbRCswq18 pic.twitter.com/lnKLHiNkM0
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 31, 2024
New @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #PA General Election #poll (8/28-30)
47.0% @realDonaldTrump
44.9% @KamalaHarris
2.7% Others
5.3% Und#PApolReport: https://t.co/GTJjmhVsZW pic.twitter.com/Uwgpupchnt
— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 31, 2024
New @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #WI General Election #poll (8/28-30)
47.3% @realDonaldTrump
46.2% @KamalaHarris
2.6% Others
3.8% Und#WIpolReport: https://t.co/hbiHZLxTvM pic.twitter.com/CPLFGGJAMZ
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) August 31, 2024
Michigan is supposed to be Harris’ best state but if it’s that close, she’s got a problem. Plus, the other battleground states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina — all tend to run better for Trump than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Time to start sweating for the Harris folks.
Newsmax also makes a good point about the skewing caused by outlier polls, talking about the current Real Clear Politics average.
While the composite of the polls give Harris an apparent edge, the polls are skewed by the Bloomberg/Morning Consult results. The contrast is most stark in the key battleground of Wisconsin, where all of the polls in the average have it a 1-point race to either side, but Bloomberg/Morning Consult has Harris up by 8 points.
The skew is repeated in each of the other two battlegrounds, too. Bloomberg/Morning Consult and The Hill have Harris up by 3 points in Michigan. And Bloomberg/Morning Consult has her up by 4 points in Pennsylvania.
Without that skew of the data in the average, Trump would lead all three states and show polling in line with The Trafalgar Group’s comprehensive findings Saturday.
As with any poll, you always have to put in the proviso: it’s a poll, and you have to check the cross tabs for things like oversampling Democrats. Trafalgar is pretty even. We’ll have to check some additional polls as they come out, but it’s looking like Trump is positioned well at this point.
