More bad news for Kamala Harris, and this time from the most accurate pollster in 2020.
While Kamala Harris’s approval numbers have had a bit of a roller coaster ride, but the idea that she could suddenly pull out a win against Trump was always tinged with an element of doubt. Being a purely media creation, she has the trouble of relying on it to make her sale worthy to the American people, and the media has been increasingly awful at their job.
On top of that, the repeated assassination attempts, both on his character and his life, have only increased Trump’s popularity.
But more than any of these things, Harris is half of the administration that has put America into the hole it is, and since many people remember how good they had it under Trump, this always left Harris trudging through a mire to the finish line while Trump could meander on smooth ground.
In other words, Trump’s path to victory has always been the clearer one, even if the media tried to make it seem like it wasn’t.
(READ: I Don’t Want to Say It’s Over for Kamala Harris… But It’s Over for Kamala Harris)
This all amounted to the CEO of AtlasIntel, Andrei Roman, giving his own prediction about Harris’s chances in November.
Roman said his numbers came from looking at how things are playing out swing state by swing state, and from the information he’s gathered, Harris is so far behind Trump she can hardly see him.
“I would give Trump 70 percent chance of winning, and Kamala 30 percent,” said Roman.
🚨 The CEO of 2020’s most accurate pollster, AtlasIntel, said that he gives Trump a 70% chance of victory.
Their recent poll had Trump up ~3 points. pic.twitter.com/Xq69BCjNBH
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 16, 2024
This is somewhat similar to what pollster Nate Silver is projecting as well, though with a slight difference. Silver has Trump at a 60 percent chance of winning, and Harris at 40.
🚨 The CEO of 2020’s most accurate pollster, AtlasIntel, said that he gives Trump a 70% chance of victory.
Their recent poll had Trump up ~3 points. pic.twitter.com/Xq69BCjNBH
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 16, 2024
This isn’t written in stone, mind you. A lot can happen between now and voting day, such as another assassination attempt, which is why Republicans should keep their head on a swivel.
Unless something drastic happens, I’m not entirely sure if there will be enough of a momentum change at this point. Harris continues to do a lot to try to improve her image to the public, but she’s held back by the simple fact that we’re in this mess partly because of her, and all of her promises to fix things are consistently followed by the question of “why not do it now?”
It’s a question she tends to ignore, and every time she does, she just looks worse. It also doesn’t help that almost every media narrative generated in her favor is destroyed quickly by the internet, which has been a constant thorn in the Harris campaign’s side.
Again, anything can happen, but things keep happening and Harris doesn’t seem to benefit from it enough, if at all. The more things change, the more they stay the same… for Harris.
