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Kamala Harris has suffered a fall in the polls for the first time since becoming presidential candidate.
A New York Times survey shows Donald Trump edging out Ms Harris 48 per cent to 47 per cent among likely voters nationally.
The drop in popularity comes on the eve of a critical televised debate with Donald Trump on Tuesday night.
It is the first major poll to show a drop in support, which the New York Times speculates may represent the end of a honeymoon period and a “euphoric August” for the vice president.
The poll reduces Ms Harris’s lead in the overall average of polls to 2.5 per cent, and just 0.3 per cent in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
Analysts warned that the new poll was an outlier so far. However, it will likely trigger fears inside the Harris campaign that it could also be a sign of things to come.
“The honeymoon is officially over,” Trump spokesperson Jason Miller triumphantly told Politico after the poll was published.
The poll also found that 28 per cent of likely voters said they needed to know more about Ms Harris, while only 9 per cent said the same for Trump – a telling result as Ms Harris is accused of being light on policy.
The poll comes as both candidates are preparing for Tuesday’s debate. Ms Harris is reportedly hunkered down in a Pittsburgh hotel undergoing intensive preparation on a mock-up stage with an advisor “inhabiting” Trump in a characteristic blue suit and long tie.
Trump’s preparations are more improvised, with no stand-in but aides refreshing him on his policy record and posing questions.
On Sunday, Pete Buttigieg, US transport secretary, said the main task for Ms Harris is “to make sure Americans understand the difference in visions and are reminded that they already agree with her on the issues that matter most to them”.
He added: “That’s going to be challenging. It will take almost super-human focus and discipline to deal with Donald Trump. It’s no ordinary proposition.”
On the other side, Republican senator Tom Cotton told CNN most Americans look at the race as between “a president who served in office and brought good times to America and Kamala Harris, a San Francisco liberal, who has brought to America exactly what you see in San Francisco”.
Cotton dismissed the defection of support to Democrats by George Bush’s vice president Dick Cheney as the “foment of election politics.” What mattered, he added, were the candidates’ records.
Senior US Republicans are urging Trump to stick to a disciplined policy script on Tuesday and warned that he could damage himself if he gets into personal attacks.
Senator Lindsey Graham wrote in a New York Times op-ed last week that “every day that the candidates trade insults is a good day for Harris]because it’s one less day that she has to defend the failures of the Biden-Harris administration.”
“I think – I pray – he can be disciplined,” Republican strategist Tricia McLaughlin told Politico. “If Trump feels like he’s backed into a corner and feels like it’s three-on-one, that could be a problem.”
After extensive wrangling over debate rules, Trump has accused host channel ABC News of being “dishonest” and the “nastiest.”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said he assumed Ms Harris would “come in very, very aggressive, and she will try to bait him, getting very angry, and she’ll be personal and try to demean him”.
He added: “I think, I hope, what he’ll do is be a guy who’s been a real president – while she has been kind of a semi-vice president – and a guy who knows all the world leaders, and a guy who has been through an enormous amount, and just be calm and steady and stick to the real differences.”
Trump, however, recently disagreed with that approach, saying he is “entitled to personal attacks” on Ms Harris and joked at a rally that he should “fire” his advisers who had told him to steer clear of personal insults” against his opponent.
Trump is now a veteran of seven presidential debates, while Harris has only debated once – when she eviscerated Joe Biden over his support for racial school bussing, during the race to be Democrat candidate in 2019. She was in turn eviscerated by Trump debate team advisor and former Democrat congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard over her record as a California attorney general.
Former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway said the onus would be on Ms Harris in the 90-minute debate. “There’s no unplowed ground when it comes to Donald Trump. It’s all been said and done.”
Conway warned that if Ms Harris repeated “the same shopworn soundbites” she would come across as “a cable news pundit, not a commander in chief”
He added: “America is still getting to know her, and while that’s helped her in the short term, it’s a risk for her in the long run.”
The New York Times poll shows that what some Democrat advisors warned would be a “sugar high” of support for Ms Harris, who entered the race in August, could be wearing off.
But she holds an 11-point, 53 per cent to 42 per cent, lead among women voters, with men 17 points up, 56 per cent to 39 per cent, with men. Ms Harris also holds an advantage among black and Latino voters and younger voters break for her by 8 points.
James Johnson, co-founder of polling firm JL partners, said Ms Harris’ position had been adversely affected by Robert F. Kennedy Jr deciding to withdraw from the race last month.
Mr Johnson said: “The honeymoon is over for Harris.
“Harris peaked a week before the DNC. There was a sense of relief when she took over from Biden and she managed to energise people who weren’t impressed by him, but since RFK dropped out of the race, shoring up voters for Trump and his position, [Ms Harris flagging in the polls] is a trend that’s been happening.
“There is a desire to see more detail from her. Not seeing her do interviews is a concern for some voters.”
Mr Johnson said Tuesday’s debate between the two candidates will be a pivotal moment in the race.
“The debates really matter”, he said. “It all hangs on Tuesday.”
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