Jets roster projection: Predicting opening-night lineup, final camp battles

WINNIPEG — “What we did during the regular season was tough to do,” Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk said in a recent one-on-one conversation. “We’re planning to do it again.”

Pionk followed that conversation up with a one-goal, three-assist performance that vindicated his swagger.

The most striking thing about it, though, is not Pionk’s matter-of-fact tone. It’s not his four-point performance or the words of praise head coach Scott Arniel heaved his way postgame. To me, the most striking thing about Pionk’s businesslike declaration is how prevalent it is throughout the Jets dressing room.

No matter which players I’ve spoken to, an inevitable point of discussion is about building off the Jets’ 110-point season and the defensive standard they set. The players’ tones are not hypothetical. Nobody is looking at Rick Bowness’ retirement or Brenden Dillon’s departure or the Central Division race with anything short of confidence. Winnipeg did a good thing last season, the players say, and this season’s battle isn’t to match it. It’s to push past it.

Arniel’s coaching staff has done its part — early, at least — by revamping the special teams. Those were the obvious aspects of Winnipeg’s game to improve upon and a supreme source of insulation. The Jets’ defence could falter in the face of inexperience or star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck could have a good regular season instead of a great one. Winnipeg’s 110-point season is a lofty goal but approachable if its special teams are merely average.

What about the roster, though?

One week into camp, Winnipeg’s roster battles are sorting themselves out. Arniel appears to be going back to familiar lines, whether it’s Gabriel Vilardi up top or Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers as two-thirds of the Jets’ second line. Brad Lambert adds a wrinkle, as do injuries to Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley, but I think we can project Winnipeg’s opening-night lineup with a high degree of accuracy based on what we’ve seen so far.

Here are our projections for the Jets’ opening-night lineup, plus insights from Lambert, Hellebuyck, Arniel and more as we take the pulse of Winnipeg’s roster so far at camp.

Projected waivers: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Dominic Toninato, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Mason Shaw, Parker Ford

Projected AHL assignments: Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, Daniel Torgersson

Projected CHL assignments: Brayden Yager, Colby Barlow

The most striking thing about this forward group is that it contains exactly the same 13 names that we projected in July. Despite the hype (and very real progression) in Lambert’s game, the 6-foot-1 Finnish forward appears destined to start the season on the outside, looking in.

Lambert scored a power-play goal against Edmonton on Wednesday night but skated in the AHL-heavy Group B at Jets camp on Thursday. Arniel told reporters not to read anything into it.

“Don’t make more than what it is,” Arniel said. “I told you before that the veterans weren’t playing in the first two games, they have to get their reps. He may be part of it at the start of the season on October 9 (but) the big guys have to get their reps.”

Lambert will play in Minnesota on Friday night. Nikita Chibrikov will, too. After making it clear that Lambert is still in the mix for a job, Arniel spoke about the need to see Lambert against a higher level of competition than he got against Edmonton on Wednesday.

“I’m pretty sure we’re going to get a pretty good lineup in Minnesota tomorrow and next week in Calgary,” Arniel said. “(Lambert is) learning as he goes here. From two years ago, to last year, to now, every day in camp here has been a growth day and a learning day, and he’s been real good at it. We’ll just put the next obstacle in front of him and see how he handles it.”

We’re reading into it anyway

We’re clear, right? The Jets head coach has said Lambert still has a shot to make it into the opening-night lineup while stressing that we shouldn’t read too much into Lambert’s Group B demotion.

I can’t help myself, though. Sizing things up from here, I think that Lambert will begin his year in the AHL — even though I believe that Lambert has shown tremendous growth since arriving in Winnipeg. He’s using his speed more effectively than before because he’s finding more ways to keep his head up, scan the ice and take advantage of his teammates’ strengths. I’m not sure if he’s ready for the defensive side of second-line centre duties and I expect that’s what will eventually keep him in the AHL until injury strikes.

Lambert spoke about building his defensive game after Wednesday’s game against Edmonton.

“It’s tougher battles here in the NHL and it’s a step up from the American League, but that’s what I work for all summer,” Lambert said. “I feel like I am doing pretty well, and obviously can and will still improve. But every 50-50 puck is huge and the more of those you can win is huge.”

Could Lambert play so well against NHL-ready lineups starting this Friday in Minnesota that he changes the Jets’ roster calculus? Yes. Do I see Winnipeg waiving Rasmus Kupari or David Gustafsson — each of whom Arniel appears to value as a fourth-centre option? Not without something spectacular from Lambert, in my opinion. Even then, I expect the 20-year-old Lambert to get the same treatment that Kyle Connor got at the same age — an AHL assignment, the ask that he handles it well, and, eventually: an injury-induced opportunity that he exploits to full effect.

I don’t think there’s a catastrophe in that, even as Winnipeg’s projected waiver wire — Anderson-Dolan, Toninato, Jonsson-Fjallby, Shaw and Ford — conveys that there are more Gustafsson and Kupari type players than there are prospects of Lambert’s ilk. Time could prove Arniel was right to make his “don’t make it more than what it is” warning. The Jets could waive Gustafsson or Kupari, despite my guess that they won’t. And Lambert could make the team outright.

All the running you can do to keep in place

Speaking to other Jets players, there seems to be a perception that rosters are crowded throughout the NHL.

“It seems like every team seems to think that they have a ton of depth,” Morgan Barron said. “Every team seems to think that there’s a ton of (capable) guys and that’s just the reality of our game right now. You see kids coming straight out of college, kids coming straight out of junior and lifetime NHL guys working their way up.”

Barron’s roster spot is more assured than Lambert’s is; what’s not assured is a bigger role, despite Barron’s high quality relative to his spot on the depth chart. The 6-foot-4, 25-year-old forward is a player who was once described to me as “too good for the AHL” when he played in that league and Arniel speaks about him highly now too. Still, it’s hard to believe there’s a minutes explosion or breakout season coming from Barron; there are just too many good players in the way.

“There’s always going to be competition for those minutes (but) that’s just something you lean into,” Barron said. “If I keep playing my game the way that I know I can, those things will come in time. But you definitely have to manage your timeline and when you’re going to get there.”

You may have noticed that I’m projecting very little change to the Jets’ line deployment to start the season. My sense is that Mark Scheifele and Connor are a duo that Arniel will run with at great length and that Arniel wants to see what Vilardi can do on that line for a longer stretch than the 198 minutes it got last season.

A final thought on duos: Arniel believes in Ehlers and Perfetti as two-thirds of a secondary scoring line. I believe Vladislav Namestnikov wins the battle to centre them, giving the Jets a line that succeeded coming over the bench third last year. There may also be a simple way to give those players more shifts this season; with Connor and Scheifele set to kill penalties, Winnipeg will need a different line to attack with after a successful penalty kill. Remember that a successful PK often means that the other team’s top players are back on the bench at the end of a long shift; Arniel can get aggressive with players like Ehlers and Perfetti, among others, if Connor and Scheifele are not an option.

A positive note for the sake of a positive note: I don’t see him displacing anybody on the depth chart I’ve given but I’ve really liked Anderson-Dolan’s camp.

Projected IR: Ville Heinola

Projected waivers: Dylan Coghlan

Projected AHL assignments: Elias Salomonsson, Simon Lundmark, Dmitry Kuzmin, Tyrel Bauer

The injuries to Winnipeg’s blue line continue to pile up. Heinola has undergone surgery to remove the pin from his infected ankle. Arniel estimates that Heinola is four weeks away at “minimum.” Now Logan Stanley is battling injury, too.

Stanley was supposed to play Wednesday night but tweaked something, according to Arniel. There’s a concern that it’s not a day-to-day situation, although Stanley is still being evaluated for the undisclosed ailment. Our roster projection errs on the side of optimistic, leaning toward Stanley being able to recover in time to play Winnipeg’s season-opening game in Edmonton on Oct. 9. If his injury lasts longer than that, Stanley will start the season with Heinola on injured reserve and the job I’ve given Haydn Fleury above will expand to include Coghlan, too.

“I don’t have to say anything to those two. They’re seeing the injuries and all of a sudden now their eyes are probably getting a little bigger,” Arniel said of Fleury and Coghlan. “I wasn’t hoping it would happen this quick but now for those two, it’s a chance. Go and put your best foot forward, show us what you’re good at, be consistent in what you do and, hopefully, the results will help you make our hockey team.”

As we’ve written, by committee will be the name of the game.

Projected waivers: Eric Comrie

Projected AHL assignments: Thomas Milic, Dom DiVincentiis

Connor Hellebuyck will play his first preseason game on Friday against Minnesota. After last season’s exit interview wherein an emotional Hellebuyck wondered aloud about needing a new approach to his game, the Jets’ star goaltender is doubling down on what’s worked for him in the past.

“Honestly, when I actually had some time to think about it, I really liked my game, I really liked my mindset,” Hellebuyck said of his summer soul searching. “There’s two different ways to go about it: try and do it yourself or try and rely on a team. The way that I’ve gotten to where I am today is really digging into myself and doing everything I can, which really helps the team in the long run.”

Hellebuyck is the ultimate trust-the-process sort of athlete, elevating his game at multiple times throughout his career by doubling down on his own plan. On Thursday, the Vezina Trophy winner said that his summer realization was that his process doesn’t need an overhaul.

“I just kind of realized what (I’m) doing is right and stick to it. Don’t deviate from the plan I’ve given myself. Just continue to get better every single day at my details and make sure my game is as consistent as possible. That’s going to help this team win.”

A quick thought on the backup job

The battle behind Hellebuyck is compelling — Comrie has played his best hockey in a Jets jersey — but I don’t think it’s controversial to say that Kaapo Kahkonen has the inside track. Kahkonen has improved throughout camp, looking particularly sharp through most of Wednesday’s game against the Oilers. That might be the end of the audition, though, or close to it. Hellebuyck wants to play roughly two and a half preseason games and the Jets have three of them left on the schedule.

This lets the air out of one mystery but allowed Hellebuyck to shed some light on another: What’s his preseason mental checklist as he works to re-establish his elite level of play?

“I’m looking for my structure. How does it feel? How quickly can I get into it and how many times can I repeat getting into the same feeling, the same structure, and the same triggers? That’s been really good right from the get-go, right from the middle of summer,” Hellebuyck said.

“Then the next thing I’m looking for is my hands. How are my hands tracking? How are they reacting to pucks? Are they falling back? Are they attacking? Are they sitting in the right spots? Am I getting pieces of pucks that I’m expecting to get pieces of? So far, I have. The next thing is just how my reads are in a game and that doesn’t really come from practice. It comes from games and scrimmaging. We had a bit of a team scrimmage earlier and I liked where a lot of things were. It’s just going to be a matter of getting into a game and getting the real pressure on.”

Projected-opening night lineup

*If Stanley is hurt

This 22-player roster would begin the season with approximately $2.5 million in cap space. It is possible that the Jets carry 23 active players instead, opening up space to keep Lambert, Anderson-Dolan or another player on the NHL roster. I suspect that Winnipeg would prefer to maximize its cap space, accruing it throughout the season. If all goes well, this would give the Jets plenty of opportunity to add talent midseason or at the trade deadline.

Either way, it seems reasonable to project a playoff spot. The only mystery is whether or not Winnipeg can get over that first-round hump.

(Photo of Vladislav Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter and Brad Lambert: Terrence Lee / Imagn Images)