TOKYO — A government-commissioned panel of experts on Wednesday largely supported Japan’s new energy policy for the next few years that calls for bolstering renewables up to half of electricity needs by 2040 while maximizing the use of nuclear power as the country seeks to accommodate the growing power demand in the era of AI while meeting decarbonization targets.
The Industry Ministry presented the draft plan for final review by the panel of 16 mostly pro-nuclear members from business, academia and civil groups. It calls for maximizing the use of nuclear energy, reversing a phaseout policy adopted after the meltdown crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in 2011 that led to extensive displacement of residents and lingering anti-nuclear sentiment.
The plan is due to receive Cabinet approval by March after a period of consultation and will then replace the current energy policy, which dates from 2021. The new proposal says nuclear energy should account for 20% of Japan’s energy supply in 2040, up from just 8.5% last year, while expanding renewables to 40-50% from 22.9% and reducing coal-fired power to 30-40% from nearly 70% last year.
The current plan set a 20-22% target for nuclear energy, 36-38% for renewables and 41% for fossil fuel, for 2030.
Demand for low-carbon energy, such as renewables and nuclear, is growing because of the demand from data centers using AI and semiconductor factories around the country.
Industry Minister Yoji Muto, who attended Wednesday’s panel meeting, said Japan must strengthen its energy security by not relying too much on a single source.
“How we can secure decarbonized energy determines Japan’s future growth,” Muto said. “It’s time to stop discussing a choice between renewable energy and nuclear power. We should maximize the use of both renewables and nuclear.”
Japan has set a goal of achieving net zero emissions of climate-warming gases by 2050, and a 73% reduction by 2040 compared to 2013 levels.
The draft energy plan places renewables as the main power source and calls for development of next-generation energy source, such as solar batteries and portable solar panels.
It outlines a number of risk scenarios, including a possibility of less-than-expected investment and cost reduction in renewables. However, some experts said the plan lacked a feasibility outlook for 2040 or a roadmap for the phaseout of fossil fuels.
The plan also calls for acceleration of the restarts of reactors that meet the post-Fukushima safety standards, and proposes construction of next-generation reactors — at plants where existing reactors are being decommissioned.
Still, to achieve the 20% target, all 33 workable reactors in Japan must be back online, with only 14 back in service after the Fukushima disaster. Given the current pace of safety checks by the nuclear regulation authority, experts say meeting the target would be difficult.
Despite criticisms and skepticism about its feasibility, Japan still sticks to its pursuit of developing advanced reactors and a struggling spent fuel reprocessing program to achieve a complete nuclear fuel cycle.
