College Football Playoff week has arrived in Columbus, as No. 8 seed Ohio State is preparing to host No. 9 seed Tennessee in the first home Playoff game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday night.
When the game was announced, it seemed like a nightmare matchup for the Buckeyes. Though there is a mismatch in the trenches in favor of the Vols, I still think there’s a way for Ohio State to take advantage of its strengths. Here are my takeaways from a week of watching Tennessee film after a season of covering Ohio State games:
Vols defensive line is as good as advertised
The main reason everybody thinks this is a bad matchup for the Buckeyes is because of the Tennessee defensive line against a struggling Ohio State offensive line.
The Vols are led by James Pearce Jr., one of the best edge rushers in the country. He has 52 pressures — tied for eighth nationally, per PFF — and can win with power and speed. But the strength of Tennessee is stopping the run.
Tennessee is giving up a national-best 0.82 yards before contact, according to TruMedia. The Vols are in the top 10 in tackles for a loss and rush defense, as well.
How do they do it? There’s a lot of talent along that line beyond Pearce. Defensive tackle Bryson Eason, a 310-pound senior, is physical and disruptive at the point of attack. A lot of teams have one good defensive lineman, somebody an offense can scheme to stop, but Tennessee has multiple impact players and rotates up front.
The linebackers attack the gaps quickly too. Tennessee is missing captain Keenan Pili, who tore his ACL against Florida, and his loss is notable. Still, the entire defense comes together to stop the run. If Ohio State misses one block or is slow on a pull, Tennessee will exploit that and be in the backfield.
It’s one of the reasons Tennessee is so good inside the red zone defensively. The Vols are giving up a touchdown on just 44.1 percent of red zone attempts, fourth nationally. Simply put, you can’t run at Tennessee and expect to gain yards consistently. That’s the fear many Ohio State fans have because they just watched the Buckeyes attempt to do that against Michigan and fail miserably.
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But Ohio State isn’t going to just give up on the run game. Nor should it, given the presence of talented running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The last thing Ohio State needs to do is throw the ball 50 times and let a Tennessee defense that is ranked seventh nationally in pressure rate tee off on quarterback Will Howard.
What Ohio State can do is add some more creativity to its offense.
Teams have had success with some jet sweeps and motions against the Vols at times. That’s not a new concept to Ohio State, which has used various jet sweeps and touch passes with receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith
Ohio State can build off those motions. It’s deep enough at receiver to show different motions to make Tennessee watch multiple things on one play.
The Buckeyes are going to run the ball, and Tennessee is going to stuff them on multiple occasions. That’s just the reality. But if Chip Kelly can scheme up some runs on the outside, different motions and ways to get Tennessee moving other than right up the designated gaps, they can have some success.
And “some” success is all Ohio State might need to open up the passing game.
There are plays to be made through the air
Pearce, who is projected as the No. 19 pick in Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft, is versatile and makes an impact often. If Ohio State is going to throw the ball, it will need tackle Josh Fryar to win more often than not against Pearce. Even in the moments he doesn’t win, he can’t give up immediate pressures and Howard is going to need good pocket awareness to step out of harm’s way.
Tennessee is really good at changing things up with its pass rush, even when rushing four. There have been times when it just lets Pearce go to work, but it is also willing to run some four-man stunts to create free shots at the quarterback for him.
If Ohio State’s offensive line can hold up, the Vols’ secondary can be beaten, though there’s talent there as well. Sophomore Jermod McCoy is a second-team All-SEC cornerback who has given up just 27 catches on 58 targets this season, according to PFF. He makes plays on the ball with four interceptions and baits well in zone coverage. Even when he gives something up, he’s usually in the right place to make the completion difficult.
Still, Ohio State has a deep receiving corps led by Smith, Egbuka and Carnell Tate that is built to win against man coverage and also make contested tight-window catches against zone coverage. If Howard has time and Kelly puts the ball in his talented receivers’ hands, that’s where Ohio State’s advantage can be. And it will have to be in the red zone, where running will get harder.
Ohio State has to trust its receivers in the matchup, as they’re the Buckeyes’ biggest matchup advantage.
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Stopping the run is priority No. 1 for Ohio State defense
The first name on the board in defensive meeting rooms has to be running back Dylan Sampson. He’s had a terrific season as Tennessee’s workhorse back, running for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns to earn first-team All-SEC honors.
He’s a good back and his numbers speak to that, but they’re also a byproduct of his carries. He carried the ball 256 times this season, which is 69 times more than anybody else in the SEC. He runs behind a good offensive line, but teams have had success slowing him down when they get bodies to him quickly. He’s averaging 3.62 yards after contact, which ranks 52nd among 159 FBs running backs with 100 carries, per TruMedia. A good number, but not scary if you’re Ohio State, which ranks fifth in yards per rush allowed (2.85) and ninth in yards before contact allowed (1.15).
The key is to be consistent about getting as many bodies to the ball as soon as possible.
I’ll use the Tennessee-Alabama game as an example. In the first half, the Crimson Tide had Sampson and the Tennessee offense bottled up, shutting them out. But in the third quarter, they put together a seven-play, 91-yard drive. Every positive play was a run, and Sampson ran for 53 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown. That opened the game up for Tennessee, which went on to win 24-17.
It sounds easy from behind a computer to just say “stop the run,” but this is going to be a full-team effort. Sampson and backup DeSean Bishop are good at finding small creases to make defenders miss and create a big play.
DYLAN SAMPSON CONTINUES TO BALL THIS SEASON 🔥
A 27-YD TOUCHDOWN TO RETAKE THE LEAD VS. GEORGIA 😤 pic.twitter.com/HmuJLppFvZ
— ESPN (@espn) November 17, 2024
There was a run by Sampson in the loss to Arkansas where a safety came down in the box and went right to go around a block, but one quick juke from Sampson to his right led to a 53-yard run and a touchdown one play later.
Ohio State linebackers Cody Simon, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles have to be in the right gaps. One big run could open the floodgates for the Vols. It’s also going to take some help from the safeties, who will surely have to creep into the box at times.
Sampson is statically comparable to Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who ran for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns on 240 carries but was held to 86 yards by the Buckeyes. But Iowa doesn’t have Nico Iamaleava at quarterback. Iamaleava adds to the game with his athleticism, legs and arm strength.
Stopping the run game is hard enough, but mix that with Tennessee’s tempo and it makes it even more difficult. The Vols are 13th nationally in total plays, averaging 74 per game. Ohio State is going to have to rotate up front, which means important reps for players like Kayden McDonald and freshman Eddrick Houston inside.
Tennessee isn’t one-dimensional on offense, as Iamaleava is a talented redshirt freshman with a cannon for an arm. Still, the Vols have been inconsistent despite coach Josh Heupel’s reputation for explosive offenses.
Part of that is because of Iamaleava’s inconsistent accuracy. He’s completing 65 percent of passes this season but hasn’t been great downfield. On passes thrown with 15-plus air yards downfield, according to TruMedia, Iamaleava ranks 49th with a 43.4 percent completion rate and is 83rd in off-target rate at 31.3 percent.
Second, I’m not sure Tennessee has a truly elite receiver. I do like Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton Jr., an explosive weapon who has 647 yards and six touchdowns on just 25 catches, but the others have struggled. Squirrel White is small, just 5 feet 10, and has drop issues, and Bru McCoy (who missed the regular-season finale with an injury) hasn’t consistently made a big impact.
I don’t think Ohio State can live by stacking the box and playing straight man coverage every play, especially knowing Davison Igbinosun’s struggles with pass interference penalties. Although Tennessee isn’t going to take shots just for the sake of doing it, it sets them up well off its strong run game. If the box is loaded, a play-action call will come in. One misstep by a defensive back, and Iamaleava lets the ball fly.
That’s where Ransom and Downs are key. Whichever of the two is the deep safety must be ready for any play-action shots from Tennessee. Cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Igbinosun have to hold up in coverage, but Tennessee has speed on the outside, which means one mistake by the safeties could lead to a big play.
Fortunately for Ohio State, Ransom and Downs have been arguably the best safety duo in the country, both earning first-team All-Big Ten honors. They give Ohio State — which has allowed a national-low four passing touchdowns all season — an advantage.
Final thoughts
I’ve gone back and forth on this game since the matchup was announced, but I think it comes down to two things: which version of Howard shows up and how Kelly and Ryan Day approach the game plan after the issues against Michigan.
The offensive line is the offensive line. At this point in the season, that’s just a mismatch that Ohio State is going to have to find a way to scheme around. Ohio State needs Howard to flush his performance against Michigan and bring back the one who threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns against Oregon or who put two bad mistakes against Penn State behind him to lead the Buckeyes to a win anyway. I tend to think he’ll play well, but I’m not sure which play calling we’ll get from Kelly.
I don’t think they’ll run out the same game plan against Michigan. It just won’t happen. I side with the belief that Ohio State is going to let it loose, much like it did in its 2022 Playoff game against Georgia.
I’m set on predicting Ohio State to win this game, but there’s no doubt that Tennessee provides some matchup issues for the Buckeyes to overcome.
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(Top photos of Will Howard and James Pearce Jr.: Michael Reaves and Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
