Is Edmonton Oilers veteran Ryan Nugent-Hopkins approaching another crossroads?

On Wednesday night against the Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers winger Ryan Nugent-Hopkins made a gorgeous deflection to tie the game at 3-3.

Nugent-Hopkins has struggled to post offence at five-on-five this season, so the goal was a welcome relief.

Nugent-Hopkins, whose two-way acumen has him stapled to the top line most games, moved down the depth chart against the Wild. He moved from left wing to centre, playing with wingers Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson for much of the evening.

The line had a strong night at five-on-five, going 2-0 goals. Nugent-Hopkins scored just his second five-on-five point of the season away from Connor McDavid.

It’s been an unusual year for the veteran forward.

His five-on-five goal share (52 percent) is solid, and his power-play points per 60 is over 5.00. This season, the struggles have come at five-on-five scoring and until the Wednesday night tilt versus Minnesota, it was a growing concern.

The offensive struggles come at a time when the organization may need to use his impressive utility and cast him in a new role. Is he up to the challenge?

The five-on-five scoring numbers

Over the last four seasons, Nugent-Hopkins delivered a couple of strong campaigns, including some good work away from the captain. In year three, he struggled solo, and this season the numbers are poor across the board:

All numbers five-on-five points per 60, via Natural Stat Trick

This is a serious issue. The Oilers need the No. 1 line to score goals at a high rate, and to outscore opponents at well over 50 percent. Part of that success has to include productive wingers with McDavid.

Nugent-Hopkins is a successful two-way winger with the captain. The tandem’s goal share over the last two seasons combined is 59 percent in 876 five-on-five minutes). That’s elite outscoring, but Nugent-Hopkins is becoming one-dimensional because pucks are going in for him.

Meanwhile, in those two seasons, McDavid has outscored opponents at a 60 percent rate when playing away from Nugent-Hopkins. More substantial scoring may be needed for the top line.

McDavid with Leon Draisaitl is fire. Is there a way to increase their ice time together at five-on-five? Here are McDavid’s numbers from the last two seasons with and without Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

McDavid performs brilliantly with both men, and together (in just a few minutes over two seasons) the line was dominant.

The 48 percent goal share away from both men is a tell. McDavid is fine, he’s the best player in the game. The 48 percent goal share without Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins reflects a lack of quality beyond those two men (and winger Zach Hyman).

Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson were acquired to help in this area, but Skinner hasn’t worked out and Arvidsson has had injury issues.

The ultimate goal for coach Kris Knoblauch is winning games. He needs to optimize the roster. The de facto No. 1 line on the team is McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman. Over the last two seasons, in just shy of 450 minutes together, the trio is averaging 5.78 goals per 60 and a 73 percent goal share.

How does Knoblauch increase the deployment of a line that flattens opponents, effectively turning five-on-five time into an Edmonton power play?

Another crossroads

Over recent seasons, Nugent-Hopkins has morphed from a centre to left wing in order to help the team reach its outer limits. There wasn’t a breaking news television moment, nor a big story to chronicle the big moment, partly because Nugent-Hopkins is a no-fuss, no-muss hockey player.

From the fall of 2011 through the fall of 2020, Nugent-Hopkins was mostly a centre. Since then, he has played wing more often than pivot.

Ironically, his faceoff winning percentage, never a strength, has spiked suddenly this season. It currently stands at an impressive 55 percent success rate.

In the game against Minnesota, Knoblauch offered the veteran a fresh look and the veteran responded.

His line featured two aggressive wingers in Arvidson and Podkolzin, leaving Nugent-Hopkins to make sure the trio was never outnumbered in case of a fast break the other way. Nugent-Hopkins had time to glide into the high slot for the tip that turned into a goal, and the line outshot the Wild 6-3 in just over nine minutes (with an expected goal share of 87 percent).

So far this season, the RNH time away from McDavid has been spent struggling with various linemates. Here are the most common lines Nugent-Hopkins has centred this year, including the game against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

When away from McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins has been deployed with numerous linemates but few actual lines. It’s a bit of a mess to sort through, but he does have success playing with Adam Henrique and Connor Brown (together and apart).

The new line with Podkolzin and Arvidsson has been together off and on since mid-October, with the largest concentration of playing time taking place in the last 10 days.

Knoblauch likes to tinker with the lines, and it’s possible we see this trio emerge as the No. 2 line when the team uses McDavid and Draisaitl together at five-on-five.

How often? 

Last year Knoblauch deployed McDavid-Draisaitl together an average of six minutes at five-on-five per game, per Natural Stat Trick. This season, the ice time per game is a little shy but in the range of a year ago.

What if the coaching staff decided to stretch it out to eight or 10 minutes?

What about the Nugent-Hopkins line?

One of the negatives surrounding this deployment by Edmonton is the second line becomes vulnerable to an opponent that’s ready for the strategy. According to Puck IQ, Nugent-Hopkins has played against elites for just 58 minutes without McDavid in 2024-25. In what is about one hour, the Corsi (36 percent) and Dangerous Fenwick (35 percent) are frightening. That isn’t sustainable for a second line, although the actual harm (two goals for, three against) has been minimal so far.

Nugent-Hopkins with Arvidsson have played 15 minutes against elites, Nugent-Hopkins with Podkolzin just 19 minutes (both 1-0 goals) with good possession numbers. It’s too early to draw any conclusions beyond the fact it has worked in the smallest possible sample.

It’s a spark.

What if it doesn’t work?

If the second line with Nugent-Hopkins at centre doesn’t work, the Oilers merely check down to McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins and a 53 percent goal share. If Hyman is included the number increases to 55 percent.

The two worries are Nugent-Hopkins fading offence and knowing there’s a nuclear option available and underutilized.

McDavid-Draisaitl is at 69 percent goal share this year, a number that is surely unrivalled in the game. If Hyman is included, the goal share at five-on-five increases to 76 percent, which is basically hockey supernova.

For a coach like Knoblauch, knowing he can’t run that line 15 minutes per game, how tempting would it be to find a second line that could take the next shift and score at more than 50 percent?

What if the Oilers’ top line scored at a 75 percent rate and the other four lines were just past 50 percent? What if that top line increased playing time from six to 10 minutes? Would that be any good?

Once again, as has so often been the case in the last 14 seasons, Nugent-Hopkins is a key player.

Moving back to centre and playing on a vital line? He’s been doing it since he started his career. In his first NHL game, Nugent-Hopkins lined up with Taylor Hall and Ales Hemsky, outscored the Pittsburgh Penguins 1-0 at five-on-five (9:55 for the line) and went 4-4 shots against Kris Letang’s pairing.

Is he ready for another challenge? Is he at another crossroads?

Nugent-Hopkins’ utility has been a blessing for the organization since he arrived. He’ll need to score more at five-on-five to get it done, but his unique two-way ability makes him a key component on one of the top two lines.

Increasingly, Knoblauch is using Nugent-Hopkins as the second-line centre in charge of handling the big minutes when McDavid and Draisaitl come off the ice.

This may be the most important challenge in Nugent-Hopkins’ career. The Stanley is in play.

(Photo of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Nick Wosika / Imagn Images)