China has a lot of problems – a moribund economy, a population that is about to fall off a demographic cliff, and a restive younger generation. But the Middle Kingdom still has a huge population, considerable resources, and a leader who has managed to seize more personal control over the country than anyone since Chairman Mao – and they are dialing their military in, and eyeing Taiwan. What’s more, they are looking askance at American forces in the Pacific.
This could be a recipe for trouble.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to conquer Taiwan by the year 2027. Most U.S. military and intelligence analysts believe Xi will attempt such an invasion before this decade is out. Xi views Taiwan’s subjugation under the Chinese Communist Party flag as a requirement of his personal destiny and the party’s political destiny.
The stakes are significant. Taiwan’s fall would make China the unquestionably dominant force in the Pacific. China’s victory would also cause major damage to the security and prosperity of American allies such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. It would upend the Pacific-global trade system and gravely damage the crucial global semiconductor industry. These factors make it possible, if not probable, that the United States would help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. President Joe Biden has said as much four times now (even if his staff has walked back his comments each time).
We do not yet have a read on what presumed Democrat candidate Kamala Harris would say about China’s territorial ambitions, although it would be interesting to see if the vice president could locate China on a map.
The United States is not obligated, under the current Taiwan Relations Act, to intervene with military forces should the Communist Chinese forces invade the island nation; we are committed to supporting Taiwan with arms and logistical support. But that, in itself, may make the mainland Communists see value in interdicting any such support, which would mean taking military action against U.S. forces in the Pacific.
That could make things in the Pacific downright spicy, and quickly. And China may be preparing to do just that.
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But what if China made the decision over whether to intervene for America? Put simply, what if China launched a preemptive surprise attack on the U.S. military before the PLA attack on Taiwan had either begun or before the U.S. had decided to contest that attack?
This conjecture gains additional credibility in light of recently released satellite images. Those images show the PLA is practicing ground strikes against the most advanced U.S. fighter jets. Taken in a remote desert area of China’s northwestern Xinjiang province, the images from April or May show mockups of F-35 and F-22 fighter jets and what look like P-3 and P-8 submarine-hunting aircraft. Some of the mockups are burnt out, indicating they have been struck. The images also show impact craters on a nearby runway, indicating that the PLA has also been training in airfield destruction operations.
The fact that China is training to destroy U.S. aircraft is not particularly surprising. China anticipates that the U.S. may assist Taiwan in any war. The PLA thus has good reason to train to fight the U.S. military. Indeed, mockups of U.S. warships, including aircraft carriers, have also been used for PLA training exercises in the same area where these images were taken.
The F-22 and various other high-tech weapons the United States is operating are great force multipliers. But we don’t have very many of them, and training and readiness under the Biden/Harris administration have suffered. It’s not at all unlikely that Communist China may well look at the situation in the United States today and see a vacuum of leadership; in this, they would be justified, as there is a vacuum of leadership in the United States.
In short, it would be in China’s interest to take on Taiwan sooner rather than later. They may well decide to do so even if it brings us into conflict with the United States.
I’ve been saying for some time now that the increasing and obvious physical and mental deterioration of the president of the United States presents a threat to national security. Having him replaced, even for a short stint, by a cackling mediocrity would not help matters any. This could explain what appears to be an accelerated training schedule by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army forces – and their specific scenarios that appear to be practice for taking out specific airfields.
The first likely move in any conflict, be it invading Taiwan to a larger push into the Pacific, would surely begin with China trying to gain air superiority. Taking America’s air assets in the Pacific – some of which are in Alaska – might well be their first step.
Watch the Pacific, folks. I think it’s unlikely that the Communist Chinese will try anything soon – but it’s not impossible.
