Few people in the West can imagine the experience of living day-to-day while anticipating a major attack. That includes the armchair experts in the White House, the UN and other democratic capitals where memories of the Second World War have faded. But while our leaders continue to wag their fingers about Jerusalem’s imperative to protect its people from an existential jihadi threat, ordinary Israeli citizens are going about their lives in the knowledge that sooner or later, Iran will try to destroy them.
Or will it? Yesterday, Iranian officials have suggested that the regime had decided only to launch the much-anticipated major attack on the Jewish state if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. There was no indication how long Tehran would allow talks to progress before responding, allowing the words “kick”, “can” and “down the road” to come gently to mind.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that Iran does not want war right now. This has been the consensus of intelligence analysts in the fortnight that has passed since the audacious assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Consider this: Lebanon, which has been unable to lift itself out of deep economic malaise, has only just managed to fully restore its infrastructure after the war with Israel in 2006. Hezbollah and its Iranian masters understand very well that Israel will not strike civilian targets. But they also know that the moment they launch an attack that crosses a red line, the lights are going out in Beirut.
The Lebanese people know this too. In recent weeks there has been an exodus of civilians from the border areas, as well as wealthier citizens fleeing the country in anticipation of war. A similar picture can be seen inside Iran, where open conflict would exact a heavy price. The Jewish state does not target the innocent, but the eyes of the world have been on Gaza; Israel’s enemies have seen the consequences of embedding your combatants among your own civilians. Jerusalem will do its utmost to target only the terrorists but ultimately, the suffering lies on your own heads. Mess with the Jews and you will be bombed forwards to the Stone Age.
Which brings us back to the finger-waggers. Remember the hullabaloo about Rafah? President Biden was adamant that the IDF refrain from entering the town, citing the risk of mass civilian casualties and insisting that evacuation was impossible. The fact that it was strategically vital – as the location of the smuggling routes from Egypt, it has long been Hamas’s lifeline for resupply – apparently made no difference. After an undignified few months of dithering, Benjamin Netanyahu finally ignored him and gave the green light. In ten days, a million civilians were evacuated to safety. Israeli forces quickly conquered the town with very low casualties; now, despite the White House’s best efforts, Hamas is in a final chokehold, deprived of the means for replenishing its stocks of weapons and cash.
Which brings us back to Iran. In this theatre, Israel has played a game that was both subtler and wilier in equal measure. After the mass attack on the Jewish state in April, the White House once again demanded “de-escalation”, publicly counselling Jerusalem to “take the win”. Knowing the laws of the Middle East, Netanyahu understood that this could not be an option, or the jackals would circle. His brilliantly-calibrated response satisfied both Washington and the need for regional deterrent: a surgical attack on a radar station near Tehran’s sensitive nuclear site at Natanz. Western intelligence sources have described how bewilderment in Iran gradually gave way to an understanding. You fired 300 missiles at us with next to no damage, Netanyahu was saying. We fired two and hit one of your most closely-guarded assets. Beware.
A similar message was sent by Jerusalem when Ismail Haniyeh – one of Iran’s most closely-guarded figures in one of the most closely-guarded facilities in Tehran – was assassinated. We can reach you anywhere. The West may have fallen for Hamas’s propaganda. It may have allowed itself to protect its own enemies in the language of human rights. But Israelis understand the experience of living day-to-day while anticipating a major attack, and indeed they understand the experience of suffering one. That tends to focus the mind on the need to deter the enemy. Jerusalem is iron.
Whisper it, but the latest Iranian attempt to peg retaliation to the Gaza talks may tentatively indicate that Israel’s high-risk attempt to restore a deterrent has worked. The ancient Chinese military master Sun Tzu said that you must provide your beleaguered enemy with a “golden bridge” to enable him to climb down without losing face. This appears to be just such a moment. The Ayatollah has been offered the opportunity to pose as the defender of Gaza and a responsible international player while drawing back his troops – and the region – from the brink.
The lesson could not be clearer. In the Middle East, peace is won through strength. Israel learned this long ago. What would it take for the West to catch on?
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