With an overtime upset a week ago, Illinois is having flashbacks to 2012. The Illini stormed out to a 6-0 record that season, and with four wins in 2024, they’re two-thirds of the way to repeating the magic. The biggest hurdle to date is a heavily favored Penn State team eager to stay in the top 10 with a ranked win at home.
The listed total opened at 47.5 points, meaning with a 17.5-point spread, the Nittany Lions are projected to score 32 or 33 points, more than any team has managed against Illinois this season. The Illini defense is 15th in the nation in points allowed per game (12.5) and hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown, but faces a true test in Happy Valley.
Behind juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State has the 10th-best running attack in the country, so it’s a safe bet this one will be won or lost on the ground, especially since the Nittany Lions are 119th in pass attempts per game. PSU does manage to find the end zone through the air, hanging with Texas and Miami in terms of passing TDs per game, but the run accounts for almost half of their total yards.
Illinois’ offense hasn’t shown much to spook the Big Ten blue blood, failing to crack the top 70 in passing or rushing. If the spread is getting covered, it’s because the Illini turn the game into a slog, which seems likely given that five of Penn State’s last seven games have hit the under going back to last season.
All odds from BetMGM. Looking for college football tickets? Find them here.
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State odds
How to watch Illinois at Penn State
- Venue: Beaver Stadium — University Park, Penn.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Expert picks against the spread
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(Photo of Kaytron Allen: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
