WINNIPEG — Scott Arniel put his heart on his sleeve, bringing up his first NHL head-coaching stint in Columbus before needing to be asked. He spoke to the 12 years between the Blue Jackets letting him go and arriving at this opportunity — head coach of the Winnipeg Jets — as a dream come true.
Arniel said he needed the time between Jan. 9, 2012 — the day Columbus fired him — and now to grow and gain the confidence to get this second chance.
“You think maybe you have all the answers and you don’t,” he said of the lessons he’s learned. “Twelve years ago, (I had) a little bit of the old school bark and not having more bark and less of the teaching. That’s an area from me that I think I’ve really grown.”
“Building a relationship is No. 1 in this business. The player today is so much different than what it was even five years ago, let alone 12 years ago. That’s all part of it. The relationship part of it is the single biggest thing. If they don’t believe in me and they don’t think I believe in them, we’re not off to a very good start. I’ve got a really good relationship I feel I’ve built over the last two years with these guys and continue to look forward to that.”
From those candid reflections to the fact that Kevin Cheveldayoff interviewed just three candidates — and only two in person — we learned a lot in Arniel’s first news conference since being appointed head coach of the Jets.
What fans really want to know — as far as I can tell, based on nearly 1,000 fan survey responses — is what Arniel is going to do differently in his role.
To that end, here’s a look at what Arniel will change as head coach — and the parts of Winnipeg’s game that he’ll work as hard as he can to maintain.
Brad Lauer let go: How Winnipeg’s coaching staff is changing
One of Winnipeg’s first decisions after hiring Arniel was to let Brad Lauer go.
Under Lauer’s leadership, the Jets power play converted on 19 percent of their opportunities over the past two seasons — the 23rd best rate in the league over that time period. There were long periods of stagnancy, with Mark Scheifele frozen to his half-wall, stationary, looking across ice at a group of talented statues. Players’ commitments to their positions appeared to outweigh their commitment to creativity and talent. Lauer paid the price for that this weekend.
“We wish Brad all the best,” Cheveldayoff said. “He’s put two hard years of his career into working here but one thing that when we talked about going through the process here with Scott was that we were looking to add some outside influence (on Arniel’s staff.)”
Assistant coach Marty Johnston and goaltending coach Wade Flaherty will return, while the status of video and analytics coach Matt Prefontaine was not addressed. Jets PR didn’t provide an update when asked after the fact.
This means Winnipeg needs to hire at least two new assistant coaches (and three, if Prefontaine is not retained). Arniel and Cheveldayoff will start the heavy lifting on that this week, taking some urgency from the fact that other teams are competing for some of the same candidates.
Arniel didn’t name names but did offer this perspective on Winnipeg’s next hires.
“We’re going to need somebody to run the power play and obviously, somebody to pick up the defence and the penalty kill. I’ve gotten some really interesting texts and emails from young coaches — guys I’ve heard about and I’ve gotten names from management and some of those other organizations as well. I’m not going to be close-minded on any of that. I’m going to be open-minded on all of these guys. I want to talk to all of these guys and see what’s out there and see what they bring to the table. If that’s young or experienced, I want to look at it all.”
It’s an encouraging perspective to take; Arniel has the opportunity to complement his own strengths and weaknesses with a well-rounded staff.
What we know about the Jets’ analytics “summit”
Arniel is making analytics a bigger priority than Rick Bowness did before him.
Bowness was not the sort of coach who leaned heavily on Winnipeg’s analytics reports, nor did Dave Lowry before him. Paul Maurice was fluent in the terms, taking great interest in what the top teams were doing and looking for trends in the reports provided to him. The NHL is a copycat league and Maurice found value in studying what the elites were excelling at, then looking for ways to implement best practices from around the league.
Arniel appears to be cut from the same cloth as Maurice. He’s keenly interested in analytics, recognizing the importance of data in modern hockey. The Jets will hold an analytics “summit” once Arniel’s staff is built, with the goal of getting everyone on the same page about the team’s approach to analytics moving forward. This isn’t quite the same thing as going all-in on data — Arniel spoke to improving Winnipeg’s approach to analytics, not making it his biggest priority.
Here’s what we know so far.
Winnipeg will host an analytics summit later this summer. It won’t be the organization’s first time doing so — Maurice organized similar gatherings when he was the coach — but it will be a step forward from Bowness’ tenure.
Some of Winnipeg’s players are already on board. Arniel talked about the importance of communicating in a constructive, inclusive way, out of respect for the fact that players are already digging into their own data. (It would be naive to think Jets players don’t pay attention to the numbers, even when they publicly express distaste in analytics. In my experience, many but not all of them do, even if they don’t always like talking about it publicly.)
Arniel also spoke to Avalanche coaches following Winnipeg’s first-round loss, learning about what he called Colorado’s late-season “self-check.” After getting beat by Winnipeg, Dallas and Vegas toward the end of the season, the Avalanche realized they needed to make some changes to their approach. Jared Bednar spoke to forechecking tweaks and other use of data without going into detail; certainly, the Avalanche dominated Winnipeg in ways we didn’t see during the regular season.
Arniel wants the Jets to be better on this front.
“It’s such a big part of the game,” Arniel said. “The biggest thing for analytics for me is get ahead of the curve. It’s easy to grab your analytics when things are bad and say ‘You’re terrible in this area, you’re terrible in that.’ For us it’s to find some of those things. It’s to kind of find the areas obviously that you’re gonna continue to build on. But find trends from around the league. Look at the top teams, see where they’re at in certain areas. Why do they have success on a yearly basis? Why do they have success in the playoffs?”
Remember that Arniel worked in Washington for four years prior to joining the Jets. The Capitals’ analytics department has been run by Tim Barnes — one of the NHL’s brightest analytical minds — since 2017-18, the year they won the Stanley Cup. Arniel had access to Barnes for the four following seasons, watching as Todd Reirden and then particularly as Peter Laviolette took advantage of Barnes’ work. This isn’t to say Arniel is as all-in on the math or strategic thinking as Barnes is but he was part of a team that did cutting-edge work. It’s a good place from which to start, however far he goes down this road.
What does this not mean?
It doesn’t mean the Jets are about to make all their decisions based on spreadsheets and data packages. They’ll likely look for small advantages in deployment and strategy, looking to catch up to the NHL’s best practices as opposed to overcorrect in a data-based direction. If you want to know how hot it is, you can check a thermometer or stand outside for a moment; it’s rare that data and old-school coaches find themselves at extreme, opposing viewpoints.
Arniel just wants his team on the same page about how it uses analytics and Cheveldayoff wants to empower him to do that.
“When Arnie says getting on the same page, it’s making sure that all that information that we have harnessed behind the scenes, gets funnelled into the coaches’ hands in the fashion and with the understanding of the coaches that they need,” Cheveldayoff said.
Expect Cole Perfetti to have a more concrete role with the Jets next season. (Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)
Arniel’s approach to Perfetti, Lambert and Jets youth
The Jets handled Cole Perfetti with kid gloves last season, benching him while up a goal early in the season and dressing him in a single playoff game. He still finished fifth in Jets scoring if you omit Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli (or seventh if you count them both). Will his life be any easier under Arniel?
Expect the kid gloves to come off, with top-six minutes available — likely as a left winger for Sean Monahan, who the Jets are actively working to re-sign.
Arniel didn’t go as far as to promise any player any amount of ice time. His history shows that he leaned on Mark Scheifele and Adam Lowry’s lines almost as much as Bowness did but without sitting Perfetti (or Nikolaj Ehlers) with quite the vigour of the more veteran coach.
He was asked about his philosophy on playing youth.
“In this day and age, with the salary cap, you’re going to have your elite players but you’ve only got so much pie to spread around,” Arniel said. “You need your young guys to step in and help you. They need to be able to help you from both the salary cap but also they have to help you (on the ice.) You look at (Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven) in Dallas, they’re making a big impact on that team.”
“But the other side of it is that, well, those players have to be ready,” he said. “You can’t just throw young guys into situations and hope that they have success. We want these guys to be Winnipeg Jets for years. We don’t want them to be one and done or one or two years and they’re out. It’s important that they get the full development and that, when it’s their time to play here, they’ve earned that opportunity and they have success when they get here.”
Arniel should have minutes for Perfetti. Toffoli is set to test the UFA market, creating the potential for a Perfetti, Monahan and Ehlers line if Monahan signs. If Ehlers is traded, that opens up even more opportunity; one wonders about Brad Lambert or Nikita Chibrikov stepping into that role if it’s available. On defence, there are a number of roster permutations available but Ville Heinola has lost his waivers exemption, while Elias Salomonsson had a brilliant season in the SHL. Arniel won’t have to wait long for his first difficult decisions to make about Jets youth.
GO DEEPER
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What’s coming back and what’s changing at 5-on-5
The Jets allowed the fewest goals in the NHL last season. Repeating that feat would be a great accomplishment and Arniel knows it.
“We’ve got something that our players are believing in. They realize how we play right now, five-on-five, is something that will garner success,” he said. “We have players that took a lot of criticism over the last couple of years who have really stepped up. I just look at Mark Scheifele and KC (Kyle Connor) who really bought into how we’re playing. They realize now that we’re not cutting away anything from their offence and they are buying into how we’re playing without the puck. I know I’ve said it often about how hard we have to work to get the puck back from people and that isn’t just in our end of the rink. Everybody did a great job over the last two years of getting on board on that.”
A cynic would point out that praising Connor’s defensive impact doesn’t reconcile with an analytical approach but Arniel’s message is clear. Winnipeg’s five-on-five defence is a legitimate strength he hopes to maintain. It was interesting, though, to hear Arniel and Cheveldayoff each talk about Winnipeg’s offence with a sense of dissatisfaction. Part of Winnipeg’s attempt to get “5-to-10 percent better” will come from studying how elite offensive teams generate their success.
Special teams will be revamped
Winnipeg outscored other teams by 57 goals at five-on-five last season — the best number in the NHL — but was outscored by six goals on special teams.
It could have been worse, too, but the Jets’ discipline helped them get to the power play 17 more times than they were short-handed.
The power play cost Lauer his job. Arniel’s penalty kill finished seventh in 2022-23 and then took a big step backward last season, before getting smoked in the playoffs. (Over two seasons, the Jets PK ranked 11th best under Arniel.)
“Specialty teams, for me, is a huge thing,” Arniel said. “Those top teams all have really good specialty teams. It helps you win games when you’re not on all the time … That’s an area for me that I take a lot of pride in and I’ll make sure that I’m also involved in and really look to dive deep into that area.”
Arniel’s promotion and Lauer’s dismissal creates job vacancies for both special teams. To that end, Manitoba finished fourth on the power play and 30th on the penalty kill in the AHL last season. Nolan Baumgartner is the Moose coach responsible for that power-play success and I’ve wondered about him for a Jets role before. Baumgartner played two and a half seasons for Arniel’s Moose from 2008 to 2010 before embarking on his coaching career, then joined Arniel’s Chicago Wolves staff as an assistant for one season in 2012-13.
In this industry, when we talk about dreams coming true, we are usually referring to teenagers at the draft, 20-somethings who play their first game or anybody who wins the Stanley Cup.
It’s rare for a 61-year-old coach getting a second chance to be the subject of such talk but, as a final thought, the most striking thing about Monday’s news conference was Arniel’s excitement for the position. In it, I believe I saw the culmination of 12 years spent unsure whether a head coaching opportunity would ever come his way again. I think I perceived the excitement and vindication of a 12-year journey paying off.
I asked Arniel about taking the long road.
“One of the darkest times for me in coaching — probably in hockey — was when I got fired in Columbus,” he said. “I had never been through it. It took a long time to get over it. Whether it was anger or it was doubt. Whatever it was. It took a while. You can ask my wife, you can ask my kids, even some of my friends — I was a grumpy person. The best part was I got an opportunity to go right back into it. Got to go to New York with Alain Vigneault. I got my head out of the sand and just decided that I had to find a way to get better and that’s what I’ve tried to do for the last 12 years.”
“My excitement now is just based on the fact that I’ve grinded it out here for the last 12 years. I’ve interviewed, I’ve actually had opportunities with some other teams. I’ve talked to other teams, I’ve gotten onto the shortlist of other teams. Until now, this is the reality that I’m finally back as a head coach and I’d like to think that the hard work has all paid off.”
(Photo of Scott Arniel and Kevin Cheveldayoff: John Woods / The Canadian Press via AP)
