How Lando Norris' F1 title push faltered due to a gamble and an unlucky red flag

Esteban Ocon sat at the front of the pack Sunday, waiting for the right moment to floor it in his Alpine.

Carlos Sainz had just crashed into the barriers at the Interlagos circuit, triggering a safety car period that lasted a few laps just over halfway through the stop-and-go São Paulo Grand Prix. But as the safety car peeled in and Ocon barreled down the start/finish straight, Max Verstappen came alongside the Alpine driver heading into Turn 1. As his RB20 pulled ahead and Verstappen took the lead, a flash of papaya orange a few cars back slid outside of the track limits.

It was Lando Norris, the race’s pole sitter and the Red Bull driver’s championship rival. Only now it seems that Turn 1 at Autódromo José Carlos Pace wasn’t just a turning point of the race; it’s a visual representation of where the championship battle split.

With another victory to his name, Verstappen looks set to wrap up a fourth world championship as soon as the Las Vegas Grand Prix. And for Norris, it’ll be a year to review, finding ways to tidy up as a driver and a team for next season. The São Paulo Grand Prix saw Norris and McLaren take a gamble and ultimately lose out to a timely red flag that ultimately shaped the race. Sometimes, it comes down to a bit of luck and the right package.

“It was a tough day,” Norris said to Sky Sports F1. “I did my best. I’ve had a lot of good races. It was about time that something didn’t go right.”

“The championship pendulum swings in one corner!” 🤯#F1 #BrazilGP pic.twitter.com/WZwv6ozkzR

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 3, 2024

Norris started on the pole after a rare Sunday morning qualifying session, but he didn’t sit P1 for long.

George Russell took the lead early on, but Norris didn’t stray too far behind during the opening stages of the wet-weather race. The McLaren driver said to Sky, “The wet starts are just a bit of a gamble. One day it’ll go your way, the other day not. The left side was a little bit quicker than the right side. That didn’t change much.”

When it came close to the window for the first round of pit stops, Norris radioed that he wanted to pit to overtake, but McLaren felt the tires were all right at that time. It wasn’t until near the end of the virtual safety car period, triggered by Nico Hülkenberg, that Norris and Russell pitted. But just four laps after the pair swapped for new tires and abandoned their top two positions, Franco Colapinto wrecked, causing the race to be red-flagged.

This went in Verstappen and both Alpine drivers’ favors. The regulations allow teams to swap tires during red-flag periods, without losing a position. Norris told F1 TV, “That’s life sometimes. You take a gamble, it’s paid off for them. It’s not talent, it’s just luck. Just a bit unlucky, that’s all.”

Verstappen took the lead several laps later, once the grand prix restarted. It became the tale of two different drivers. Verstappen hardly missed a step while Norris made a few mistakes, which he later admitted. Take the Turn 1 moment, for example. With cars on either side, Norris locked up, losing two positions in the process.

The McLaren driver ended the day in sixth place, after McLaren had him and Oscar Piastri swap places, and is staring down an investigation over an aborted start incident. He lost ground to Verstappen in the championship battle, the Dutchman now sitting 62 points ahead with three races and a sprint to go.

“Not a perfect race for me,” Norris told F1 TV. “I think no matter what, fourth was the best anyone could do of the people who boxed and didn’t get lucky.”

What if Norris stayed out? What if there was not a red flag? What if?

Sure, staying out a few extra laps would mean keeping track position, similar to Verstappen and the Alpine drivers. But Verstappen was a rocketship on Sunday, putting on a masterclass performance as he powered his way from a P17 start in sometimes dicey conditions. The Dutchman looked comfortable, regardless of whether it was chucking down rain or not. He hardly missed a step.

But Norris? Mistakes cost him against Russell and Charles Leclerc. And the car lacked the competitive pace we’ve seen in recent races. In the team’s race recap, principal Andrea Stella said, “We didn’t give them a car that had enough pace to overtake in a race without the DRS being activated.”

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Ultimately, Norris believes that they pitted at the right time.

“I don’t care about the hindsight of things. That’s luck for them, nothing more,” Norris told Sky Sports F1. “They got lucky on a rule that no one agrees with. Probably them today, they agree with it, but every driver has disagreed with it in the past.”

This isn’t the first time in Verstappen and Norris’ championship battle that circumstances and luck have come up in conversation. A safety car period at the Miami GP played in Norris’ favor, and a few weeks later at the Canadian GP, it worked against him, going in Verstappen’s favor.

“Sometimes (it) works for you and sometimes (it) works against you,” Verstappen said that June weekend. “This time, it was working for us. I guess in that sense it’s 1-1 now this year. That’s racing.”

Racing sometimes comes down to being in the right place at the right time. Even with so much time and resources poured into strategizing for every possible scenario, the São Paulo Grand Prix (and qualifying) was quite chaotic.

It’s a balance of risk versus reward, when to gamble. The dice ultimately didn’t roll in McLaren’s favor.

“We’ll keep fighting till the end,” Norris posted on Instagram. “Not gonna give up until it’s over.”

(Top photo of Lando Norris rejoining the track during Sunday’s race: Clive Mason / Getty Images)