The stakes are always high for hockey operation departments in the offseason. That’s especially true in an obsessive hockey market like Vancouver.
For Canucks management, however, this summer feels especially critical. The club has pushed a ton of assets into the centre of the table to bet on this core group, and after the lineup made shockingly rapid progress during a dream 2023-24 campaign, there’s no going back.
Expectations have been raised — this club should be positioning itself to contend credibly for the Stanley Cup. That’s a tall order facing president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford and general manager Patrik Allvin, and a ton of work will need to get done to accomplish it.
The Canucks enter the offseason with serious buying power and cap flexibility. They also enter with significant needs and a host of key expiring players that will either need to be extended at the 11th hour before free agency begins on July 1 or be replaced with the sort of conservative creativity that defined the Canucks’ modus operandi last summer.
Here’s our best effort at outlining a 10-step plan for what Canucks management would pull off in a dream offseason As always, what we’re really out to do is outline key concepts and opportunities that could shape Vancouver’s decision-making this summer.
1. Land a star, top-line-level winger
The Canucks ranked 24th in goals scored per game from the All-Star break until the end of the season. Those challenges in manufacturing offence extended into the playoffs, where Vancouver averaged only 2.54 goals per game. Yes, the Canucks scored goals in bunches in the first half of the season, but that was partially fuelled by a historic shooting percentage bender. They can’t rely on that type of shooting efficiency/fortune again. They also ranked 22nd in generating shots on goal at five-on-five, whereas the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, for reference, both ranked top five.
Vancouver only had one winger who scored 50 points or more this season. Just consider how many lacklustre wingers got extended top-six opportunities: Ilya Mikheyev played 466 five-on-five minutes with Elias Pettersson. Sam Lafferty logged nearly 175 minutes on Pettersson’s flank. Andrei Kuzmenko played nearly 250 minutes, too. Phil Di Giuseppe spent 241 five-on-five minutes alongside J.T. Miller. Pius Suter eventually became a top-line mainstay.
Oh, and Vancouver’s first power-play unit — which struggled in the second half and the playoffs — never found the perfect fourth forward. Kuzmenko, Elias Lindholm and Conor Garland all got turns on PP1 throughout the year with mixed results.
Add it all up and the Canucks’ dream acquisition this summer would be a star winger who can take some pressure off Pettersson or Miller and give the top power-play unit a shot in the arm.
Winning the Jake Guentzel sweepstakes would be the most straightforward path to this, although Sam Reinhart and Jonathan Marchessault are also big-time scorers. The trade market could present top-of-the-lineup studs like Pavel Buchnevich, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mitch Marner and Martin Necas.
GO DEEPER
Nine unrestricted free agents the Canucks could target to bolster their top 6
2. Avoid committing significant salary or term to Plan B option if Plan A fails in unrestricted free agency
The Canucks’ need for a top-of-the-lineup winger is critical.
Free agency, however, is complicated and competitive. For apex unrestricted free agents, the decision on who to sign with can be shaped by everything from pre-existing relationships with team leadership (or with potential teammates), to proximity to family, to taxes, to quality of life questions, to whether or not a player just wants to play for the team that was their favourite growing up. The only guarantee in pursuing the top UFAs is that you’ll have to overpay to land them.
This summer, there are really only two wingers — maybe three — who are headed toward the open market and are of the calibre to move the needle offensively for the Canucks at the top of the lineup. There are other good options, however, and players like Teuvo Teräväinen, Tyler Toffoli, Jake DeBrusk and Chandler Stephenson could be helpful and maybe even sharp adds for Vancouver.
If the Canucks, however, are unable to land a Reinhart, Guentzel or Marchessault-level player, it’s going to be critical that they manage the term and cap commitment with whichever wingers they opt to chase as a Plan B.
It’s one thing to detonate your cap structure when chasing a risky unrestricted free-agent contract for a bona fide star. If the Canucks find they’re only able to acquire good second-line players instead of top-of-the-lineup star contributors, prudence will be essential.
The Canucks need a star winger, and Jake Guentzel could take some pressure off Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller and give the top power-play unit a boost. (James Guillory / USA Today)
3. Be willing to dangle premium assets to acquire a star-level winger
This is shaping up to be a fascinating offseason.
With significant cap growth filtering through the system, teams across the NHL are going to have options they haven’t had in a half-decade. The ramifications will be significant. Already, the volume of trade speculation surrounding star players like Necas, Marner and Ehlers hints at a fascinating level of potential activity that could emerge around the league in the months ahead.
The Canucks aren’t flush with top-end future assets. Vancouver doesn’t have a first- or second-round pick at the upcoming NHL Draft and its prospect system remains well below average. In top prospects Jonathan Lekkerimäki and Tom Willander, however, Vancouver does have some premium asset weaponry to dangle in trade talks, although it’s notable both were considered untouchable by management at the trade deadline.
The Canucks also have their 2025 first-round pick, which is surely burning a hole in their pocket. That pick could also be protected to limit Vancouver’s downside risk.
You’d prefer to see the Canucks add a star-level contributor without the additional acquisition cost of a trade, but if it comes to it, given their positioning, the Canucks might be better off overpaying on the trade market for a real star than overpaying in term and treasure in free agency for a good player.
4. Don’t be afraid to carry cap space into August or the season in pursuit of a star-level winger
In the summer, teams usually have available cap space and prefer to pay to fill roster holes rather than to free up additional space.
During the season and into late August, however, that supply and demand logic shifts.
The available cap space in the NHL system will dry up quickly when the calendar flips to July. Once it does, clubs tend to be willing to pay — or accept a lower cost to send out players — to free up cap space.
There’s an edge to be gained here, potentially. If Vancouver is unable to land the transformative star winger it needs at the draft or in the first week of July, it may want to consider being patient in its pursuit of a difference-maker.
Vancouver could go about hitting singles on the open market, preserving cap space and waiting to see what shakes loose during the dog days of summer. It could even wait longer than that.
If the right opportunity doesn’t come Vancouver’s way, it could consider doing just enough to maintain a high level of defensive solidity and count on its impressive top-end core to keep it solidly in the playoff mix when the season begins. Given how active and dexterous this management group has proven to be in adding players and filling needs during the season, if the Canucks were to sit on some of their cap space, unique opportunities to buy great players at a somewhat reduced cost could present themselves as the season goes along. Notably, and beyond rental players, some of the most impactful trades of the past several years — Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Jakob Chychrun and Filip Hronek among them — have occurred in-season.
A perfect Canucks offseason pivots around landing a transformative, star-level winger, but that doesn’t necessarily have to happen during the summer. It’s even possible that preserving some cap flexibility and lying in wait to strike may be the best path forward, depending on how the next few weeks play out.
5. Identify and acquire another winger for the top nine
Lindholm walking in free agency would leave a sizeable hole in the third-line centre position. Given the weak UFA centre market, the Canucks’ best bet to affordably fill the 3C position may be to shift Suter there.
If Suter shifts to the middle, Vancouver will need to replace his top-nine wing spot even after adding a top-six piece. The Canucks should go bargain-hunting when targeting a complementary top-nine winger (similar to how they landed Suter in the first place).
Danton Heinen and Michael Amadio are a couple of examples. Heinen has clocked in at a $1.1 million-or-lower cap hit on his last three contracts. The 28-year-old Langley native is speedy, can slide up and down the lineup, is responsible defensively, kills penalties and chipped in with 17 goals and 36 points in 74 games for the Boston Bruins this year. Amadio, meanwhile, can patch holes anywhere in a lineup, too.
6. Get off of at least $3.75 million of Ilya Mikheyev’s cap hit without using a buyout
The Athletic contributor Rick Dhaliwal reported last week that the Canucks have granted permission to Mikheyev’s agent to help facilitate a trade out of Vancouver. It’s the strongest indication yet that they would be open to moving on from their key 2022 UFA acquisition, although they are unlikely to be willing to pay a significant sweetener to consummate that deal.
With cap growth already confirmed for next season, it’s possible the Canucks could find a taker for Mikheyev. It won’t be easy — there’s a surplus of solid winger talent available in free agency — but it does suddenly seem possible for players on problem contracts, like Barclay Goodrow and Pierre-Luc Dubois, to move teams. It certainly wasn’t for much of the past five years.
A Mikheyev buyout is an unwieldy proposition for the Canucks. They simply can’t afford to have nearly $7 million in dead money tied up for the final year of Thatcher Demko’s current contract and over $6 million tied up for the final year of Quinn Hughes’ current deal.
Paying a modest sweetener and retaining up to $1 million of Mikheyev’s contract to facilitate a trade, however, is far more palatable. In fact, given the Canucks’ various needs, a deal of that sort would probably be a necessary evil in a perfect offseason.
7. Prioritize re-signing Teddy Blueger, but be careful on term and be willing to walk away
Teddy Blueger logged the most penalty-kill minutes of any Canuck forward in 2023-24. He was a strong two-way play-driver (Canucks controlled 55.9 percent of scoring chances during his shifts), proved capable of playing a 3C role if necessary and won 53.1 percent of his faceoffs.
It’d be a massive blow to Vancouver’s bottom-six centre depth to lose both Lindholm and Blueger. Blueger’s skill set as a defensive/PK specialist would be tough to replace on the open market because of the lack of quality UFA centres this year. Internally, Nils Åman is far from proving he can be an everyday fourth-line centre and heavy-usage penalty killer, in large part because he’s a 40 percent career faceoff winner in the NHL.
The Canucks should prioritize keeping Blueger, assuming the cost is reasonable. They will have to be cautious about term, in particular, because he turns 30 this summer. They should push hard to re-sign him but they also can’t fall into the trap of overpaying depth players if his contract demands are too high.
Teddy Blueger logged the most penalty-kill minutes of any Vancouver forward this past season. (Bob Frid / USA Today)
8. Manage AAV in Tyler Myers, Nikita Zadorov talks conservatively and be willing to replace them affordably
The Canucks need to leave a large chunk of cap space available for the offseason so the forward group can be radically improved. Because of that, management has to be careful not to overspend on Nikita Zadorov and/or Tyler Myers.
Zadorov was a beast during the playoff run. In a perfect world, you’d give him the bag without thinking twice. In reality, however, the Canucks have to be disciplined and conservative in negotiations. If Zadorov’s ask is above $5 million on a long-term deal, for example, that’s a luxury the Canucks probably shouldn’t commit to for a No. 4/5 defender, regardless of how uniquely gifted he is.
No. 4/5 defencemen can be affordably found in free agency. UFA Brenden Dillon, for example, would bring similar size and old-school physicality, penalty killing and overall defensive impact for a significantly cheaper price.
It’s worth paying top dollar for a true star forward and then going cheaper in filling out the rest of the blue line, rather than the other way around.
9. Roll the dice on an upside third-pair guy on a value contract
Vancouver is going to need to add blue-line depth this summer, and beyond replacing Myers and Zadorov, it will have to be conscious of replacing Ian Cole.
Although Cole struggled against the Oilers in the second round, his versatility and overall steadiness were huge factors last season. This summer, however, given their various needs, the Canucks will unlikely be able to afford to have multiple $3 million defenders slotted onto their third pair.
With Noah Juulsen, Mark Friedman and Cole McWard locked up for next season, they have some interesting names in the mix to battle for a spot in the opening lineup and 23-man roster. Adding one more upside swing into that competitive mix, however, whether it’s a secondary market player who isn’t tendered (like an Erik Brannstrom or a Henri Jokiharju) or a late August value contract, would be welcome.
10. Entrust Arturs Silovs with the backup role, but bring in a veteran third goaltender
Arturs Silovs did everything the Canucks could have asked for and more in how steadily he performed between the pipes in the playoffs. Sure he has a couple of areas to work on, like his tracking of long-range shots through traffic, but his athleticism, rebound control and sharp instincts are all NHL calibre.
The 23-year-old Latvian has earned the first crack at the Canucks’ backup job. That said, it’d be wise to sign a veteran third-string goalie this summer to beef up the goaltending depth. This would provide insurance in case Demko gets hurt or if Silovs unexpectedly struggles and needs a reset in Abbotsford.
(Top photo of Mitch Marner and Conor Garland: Bob Frid / USA Today)
