How are the Edmonton Oilers' AHL forwards spiking offensively?

One year ago, the Edmonton Oilers’ minor league system looked flaccid offensively.

The 2023-24 Bakersfield Condors were averaging 2.47 goals per game, and young prospects projected to play in the NHL (like Xavier Bourgault, now a member of the Ottawa Senators organization) were stalling when their offensive trajectory should have spiked.

This year’s Condors are once again challenged offensively. However, there’s some good news for the group.

Coach Colin Chaulk has come under heavy criticism for the lack of prospect development. His biggest problem this season (goals against) may be due to some real roster issues (83 percent of the defencemen signed to NHL deals are right-handed, that has to be close to a record) but there are more good arrows offensively year over year and goaltender Olivier Rodrigue is once again a big reason for any success in Bakersfield.

Here’s a look at this year’s prospect forwards and names you should know. Some are familiar and others will be if current trends continue.

Chaulk’s Condors

This is Chaulk’s third full season. The offensive output and goal differential in each season vary greatly.

Via theahl.com

The big change this season comes via goals against, but the overall offence is also off so far this season.

The encouraging news for Chaulk’s Condors offensively comes in scoring at even strength.

That’s encouraging, because the players who are currently in the AHL (with the possible exception of Matt Savoie) aren’t destined to play often on an NHL power play should they make it to the world’s best league.

The current Condors are averaging 2.4 goals per game at even strength. That compares to 2.29 last season and 2.22 in 2022-23. It’s a marginal increase, but it does tell us someone is scoring more often this year in a difficult part of the game (even strength).

Recent prospect scoring at even strength

Via theahl.com

If you’re a fan of Savoie, Chaulk, the Condors or the Oilers, this is a most encouraging development.

Bourgault struggled as a rookie in even-strength scoring during the 2022-23 season. He regressed in year two, and is no longer a member of the organization. His overall boxcar numbers as a rookie were aided by 14 special teams points (20 at even strength) and there were clearly issues for him in finding the range offensively.

Savoie’s rookie season compares favourably to all players listed here. He’s the youngest player on the Condors, among the top scorers and he’s playing against bigger and stronger men. His scoring rates at even strength have improved in recent weeks and that should continue over the second half of the season.

For Chaulk, this development has to feel like redemption. He followed Jay Woodcroft as Bakersfield’s head coach and entered the head coaching gig after some pretty famous forwards came through the Condors system.

Since moving to California in 2015, looking at all rookie forwards, Savoie’s totals show well.

via theahl.com

There are some valuable takeaways from this list, including Savoie’s impressive even-strength scoring at 20. Only Tyler Benson delivered more offence at 20 and Savoie will have the rest of the season to catch him.

Savoie’s rookie season isn’t the most impressive rookie year since 2015 in Bakersfield, that honour belongs to teenage Jesse Puljujarvi. However, Savoie is a more explosive offensive player at 20 than players on this list at the same age, including Dylan Holloway.

Chaulk took plenty of heat for the Bourgault prospect pool, a group that included Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie and (later) Matvey Petrov. The showing by Savoie (and others, more in a moment) suggests the Condors either deployed players who were shy offensively or (it is my belief) there were too many similar wingers who arrived at the same time. These kids stagnated across the board.

As much as Chaulk’s job is to develop prospects, NHL history has many examples of poor development of prospect clusters when playing time is not abundant. A better plan might have been sending some of those pieces to the ECHL, or trading some of them earlier in the development window.

Scorers don’t always make it

One of the key takeaways from the decade-long look at Condors forwards is that just delivering offence isn’t enough to earn an NHL career.

In the case of Holloway, he was a poor scorer at 20 in the AHL but brought many other elements. He had size, speed, a rambunctious style and a reputation for finding his offensive game once he got comfortable. It happened just this way in the AHL and is now happening for him with the St. Louis Blues this season.

For Savoie, the impressive offence at even strength is a strong indication that he possesses the skills to emerge as an actual NHL player. However, the other bullet points on his resume (plus speed, great hands, some edge to his game) are also vital to his becoming an NHL player.

In his recent article on the Oilers prospect pool, Scott Wheeler at The Athletic waxed poetic about Savoie’s considerable skills and speed. Importantly, he also wrote this about Savoie: “I remain a believer in him becoming a high-tempo, top-nine forward. His speed might even make him a useful penalty killer and give him all-situations value in the NHL as well.”

Holloway offers a great example of what NHL teams are looking for when recalling a player from the minors. The big forward performed well on the Condors’ power play, but that wasn’t a need when he got to Edmonton.

Savoie’s chores should he make the NHL with the Oilers will involve ice time outside the power play. His even-strength scoring will help, and his high-end skills plus speed are a major positive. The more utility he can add between now and his first NHL recall, the more opportunity he will have to play once he arrives.

The same holds true for Noah Philp. His ability to kill penalties, play a rugged game, skate well and contribute offensively are all positives. The way Edmonton’s season is developing currently, Philp probably sees another recall in the next two or three weeks, or will have to wait until fall to push for full-time work in the NHL. The trade deadline is March 7, and the chances that Oilers general manager Stan Bowman acquires a fourth-line centre are high.

Jacob Perreault has been thriving under Chaulk this season after his arrival in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens. He’s a long shot for an NHL future, but his play with Bakersfield has to have been noticed by Oilers management.

Finally, Petrov’s awakening offensively in the last several weeks has been one of the best hockey stories in Bakersfield.

Since Dec. 1, Savoie (12 games, 5-10-15) found another level while Philp (12 games, 4-5-9), Petrov (12 games, 6-3-9) and Perreault (11 games, 1-6-7) are delivering offensively.

The organization suffered a hiccup with the Bourgault prospect pool over the last two seasons but seems to be on track now under Chaulk in Bakersfield.

Now, about those right-handed defencemen: How does a coach run five right-handers among his six defenders and make it work? That’s for another day, but part of the solution appears to be starting Rodrigue in goal.

(Photo of Matt Savoie: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)