Frustrations are peaking for the Miami Heat (26-30) as wins, points and defensive stops become tougher to come by.
It’s been the theme of a challenging season that requires a 15-11 mark down the stretch just for the Heat to finish at .500, let alone make any noise in the playoffs. At this point, though, considering the new look of the roster, team-wide pattern of squandering leads and game-to-game inconsistencies, Miami would sooner settle for a string of wins before thinking ahead to much else.
Barring a massive collapse in the Eastern Conference standings, the Heat are poised to at least notch a berth in the Play-In Tournament, but mounting losses mean their ceiling is that of a team lucky to not fall out below the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls, let alone advance to a first-round playoff series. Even without championship hopes, a strong end to this season could help provide promising visions of Miami’s future as the team adjusts to its post-Jimmy Butler era.
Instead, the team has sported the NBA’s second-worst offense in the month of February — ahead of only the Charlotte Hornets — and is struggling to maintain a consistent identity beyond routine disappointment about losing winnable games. No matter Miami’s record by season’s end, it will be hard to not wonder what could’ve been, even without Butler in the fold.
In the last month, the Heat have further entrusted first-time All-Star Tyler Herro as the leading man, but they’ll need more than his scoring prowess to hone a new long-term identity. Herro’s true shooting percentage in February (52.4 percent) is the lowest it’s been at any point of the season (62 percent between October and January), which is less an indictment on him and more so reflects Miami’s shortened room for error on offense as defenses further key in on him, especially on the perimeter.
Miami has played only three games since the All-Star break ended, but its inefficiency on wide-open shot attempts has been staggering. The Heat are making only 27 percent of their 3-point attempts in that span and drop to 25.9 percent on wide-open looks, when defenders are at least six feet away, per NBA.com. Winning in the league is already hard enough, but it becomes a taller task when stringing together multiple possessions without making open shots.
Beyond Herro, the Heat lack a consistent perimeter scorer who can keep the floor well-spaced and maintain sound ball movement. Even at this low point of the season, the team is saying the right things about getting good shots, but it ranks last in assist rate (52.6 percent) coming out of the break, which doesn’t resemble an Erik Spoelstra-run offense centered on making the extra pass to create easy shots.
A huge problem for the Heat in February, during which they’ve gone 3-7, has been opponents comfortably sinking into the paint and limiting easy looks at the rim, as evidenced by Miami attempting only 19.2 shots off drive this month, good for only 25th among all teams. And the Heat are barely getting to the line when attempting those drives (6.5 percent foul rate on such plays this month), let alone converting them into consistent 3s upon kicking out to open teammates.
But a key to solving this problem is knowing who the Heat can trust to create offense beyond Herro carrying the load. He has more 40-point games this season (three) than his first five seasons combined (one), but Miami has lost each time he’s gone off in 2024-25. On the season, his presence improves the Heat’s offense by almost double-digits, but they need more consistency beyond Herro to truly hone game-to-game consistency, this season and beyond.
At different points this season, Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jović and (now) Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins have helped shoulder perimeter playmaking responsibilities with Herro, but a consistent secondary option capable of raising Miami’s floor hasn’t made itself plain.
It’s possible the team’s upcoming five-game homestand will help balance out matters. Extended road trips are no longer a thing this season, which is a welcome sign for a team six games under .500 on the road (13-19) compared to a 12-11 mark at home. Even then, though, the Heat have won only three of their six matchups at the Kaseya Center since Jan. 1, so victories aren’t given by simply switching venues.
Ultimately, Miami must map a way to log victories beyond the status quo of Herro carrying the load, whether it’s to muster even a shortened postseason run or to hone its big-picture identity ahead of this summer, which could pose an opportunity to select high-quality talent in what should be a loaded 2025 NBA draft, thanks to acquiring the Warriors’ top-1o protected first-rounder in the Butler trade.
Until then, it’s all hands on deck as the Heat simply seek a rhythmic end to an up-and-down season.
“We’ll have to do whatever’s necessary. … It’s just one of those things right now,” Spoelstra explained after Monday’s 98-86 loss to the Hawks. “We’re searching. That’s not an indictment on anybody necessarily. I feel for the guys who haven’t been able to play. … It’s not anyone’s fault. We’re all in this together, but we do need to find something. I’ll continue to use the depth of our roster however we feel like we need.”
(Photo: Adam Hagy / Getty Images )
