Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon and Newcastle's left-wing dilemma

Harvey Barnes’ exceptional ability to provide match-defining moments from the left flank was admired by Eddie Howe long before the winger joined Newcastle United in July 2023.

Having watched him extensively, Howe became so convinced by Barnes’ quality that the then-Leicester City winger featured prominently on his wanted list for over a year.

To finance the £38million ($50.2m) purchase of Barnes, Howe eventually sanctioned the sale of Allan Saint-Maximin to Saudi Arabian club Al Ahli. Barnes may lack Saint-Maximin’s panache and creativity, but he is less erratic and, critically for Howe, essentially guarantees goals.

During his final two full Premier League campaigns with Leicester, Barnes assisted 11 goals and scored 19. In those same two seasons, Saint-Maximin had roughly the same number of assists (10) but far fewer goals (six).

“He is one of the best finishing wingers I’ve seen,” Howe said following Barnes’ sublime winner at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Sunday. “Quality goalscoring wingers are few and far between.”

An absolute rocket from @harveybarnes97! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/lxotTEpXQ9

— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) September 15, 2024

Such lavish praise for the largely uncelebrated Barnes may feel hyperbolic, but his record merits it.

Using data from fbref.com to compare Barnes to peers from Europe’s top-five leagues since the start of the 2020-21 season, he ranks 10th for non-penalty goals per 90 minutes among wide players to have been on the pitch at least 5,000 minutes.

With 35 non-penalty goals across 7,718 league minutes, Barnes’ 0.41 goals per 90 beats world-renowned forwards including Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior (0.4), Rafael Leao of AC Milan (0.39) and Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.37).

Barnes’ magnificent record, allied with Howe’s admiration for his abilities, makes his lack of starts all the more curious.

Having come off the bench to provide the assist which earned a point at Bournemouth on August 25, Barnes was rewarded with his first league start of the season the following weekend against Tottenham Hotspur — and he scored. Yet, for what Howe described as “tactical reasons”, Jacob Murphy then displaced him at Wolves once the club football resumed after the September international break, with Anthony Gordon reverting to his favoured left-wing berth.

Following another game-changing cameo at Molineux, Barnes’ case to start away against Fulham on Saturday is compelling.

Though a much smaller sample size, the 26-year-old is averaging a goal every 79.5 minutes this season (two in 159 league minutes), and a goal contribution every 53 minutes (two goals and one assist).

In 25 league appearances for Newcastle (only eight starts), he has scored seven goals and provided four assists across 952 minutes. That represents a goal every 136 minutes and a goal contribution every 86.5 minutes. Those seven goals have come from an expected goals (xG) return — which measures the quality of a shot and the likelihood of it being scored — of just 4.7.

“You always feel when he’s on the pitch that you’ve got a chance of scoring,” Howe said — and the statistics certainly support that theory.

Barnes vs Gordon

Why, then, has Barnes found Premier League starts so hard to come by since his move to Newcastle?

Throughout much of 2023-24, the explanation was obvious.

An innocuous-looking foot injury against Sheffield United in the September kept him sidelined for five months. “The season was stop-start,” Barnes said in July. “The injury stalled everything… I was playing catch-up, you feel you’re never fully fit.”

But an additional reason Barnes has struggled for starts is that another left-winger has made himself indispensable.

During Barnes’ absence, Gordon prospered.

Across 35 appearances, Gordon scored 11 goals and laid on a further 10 for team-mates, representing a goal contribution every 137.6 minutes. The 23-year-old established himself as Newcastle’s difference-maker; dependable fitness-wise and consistently delivering match-changing moments.

Under interim head coach Lee Carsley, Gordon was elevated to England’s first-choice left-sided attacker earlier this month — and that is his preferred position. “I want to be left wing,” Gordon told NUFC TV last week. “But I believe in myself that much that I believe I can play anywhere. It doesn’t matter to me.”

Given how Gordon was affected by summer interest from Liverpool, his boyhood club, Howe may feel some need to appease the player by using him in his favoured role.

That, however, would not be a key determining factor in the head coach’s selection decisions. Rather, Gordon’s quality from the left is unquestionable, though he is different stylistically from Barnes.

Across their respective Premier League careers, Gordon has shown himself to be more defensively active, averaging 2.1 tackles per 90 to Barnes’ 0.9. This means Gordon tends to provide greater defensive cover for his left-back.

Also, while Gordon carries possession upfield and takes on full-backs, Barnes is generally more direct. Around 12.5 per cent of his touches have been inside the penalty area, compared to nine per cent for Gordon.

This reflects Barnes’ trademark one-two manoeuvre, seen more regularly at Leicester — as shown below against Wolves in October 2022 — than so far at Newcastle.

At Newcastle, Barnes has shown a willingness to go outside as well as cutting in onto his favoured right foot.

Barnes has proven himself to be more consistent with his attacking output than Gordon. While they both average more than two shots per 90, Barnes has been more clinical, having overperformed his top-flight career xG by 7.7. Gordon has overperformed his by 0.7, although he has also made 50 fewer appearances.

The goal Barnes scored against Spurs this month, when he arrived late and sidefooted the ball home, as shown below, underscores his finishing prowess.

Whereas Gordon is regularly involved in Newcastle’s build-up and is a focal point in their offensive patterns, Barnes is more of a pure finisher.

Since the start of last season, Barnes sits an impressive 10th for minutes per goal (136) in the Premier League for players who have scored five or more times and have played at least 500 minutes, and ninth for goals per 90 (0.66). Barnes’ Newcastle team-mates Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak are among the select few above him.

Significantly, three of Barnes’ goals have been scored from outside the penalty area. He averages 0.28 goals from beyond the 18-yard box per 90 — only Aston Villa’s Jhon Duran averages higher — and is the only Newcastle player to have found the back of the net more than once from such distance. One of those goals was his winner against West Ham in March, shown below.

Given Newcastle’s present issues in build-up play, having a player with long-distance shooting ability on the field takes on even greater importance.

In one sense, Howe has the ideal selection headache on his team’s left flank. But, although Barnes and Gordon seem to be pushing one another to higher standards, Newcastle supporters want both accommodated in the same XI.

Barnes and Gordon

Newcastle’s failure to sign a right-winger in the summer — they met Michael Olise’s Crystal Palace release clause, but he instead joined Bayern Munich, and enquired about Nottingham Forest’s Anthony Elanga — leaves a vacancy. Murphy enjoyed an impressive pre-season but has not shown the necessary final-third quality, while Miguel Almiron has fallen out of favour.

Theoretically, therefore, Barnes and Gordon could be deployed down either flank.

Howe has not been averse to fielding both men at the same time. He did so on occasion last season, and also against Spurs recently. But, although Howe insists both can be used on either flank, he has never started Barnes as a right-winger in the league.

Instead, it is always Gordon he shifts across. That is because, although Gordon is a natural inverted left-winger, he is more two-footed than Barnes and can perform a traditional winger’s role when deployed on the right.

Whereas both players are effective cutting in from the left and shooting with their right foot, Barnes is more lethal when doing so, while Gordon sometimes overdoes that action. Playing down the right forces Gordon down the byline more, meaning he can stand up crosses to the back post.

Although Barnes could do likewise, he has less pace of the two and Newcastle would lose his most potent weapon of coming inside to shoot. According to Transfermarkt, Barnes only played four times for Leicester as a right-winger in the Premier League, with just two of those being starts, and he never did so after December 2019.

When Barnes came on at Bournemouth last month, he floated the cross from the left for Gordon to equalise (shown below), highlighting the potential value of having both on the field together.

Even if Gordon prefers to play on the left, he is still a powerful attacking weapon on the right and, given Barnes’ form, it seems likely Howe will play both of them.

Supersub conundrum

Barnes’ productivity from the bench complicates selection matters, however.

Since the start of last season, he has scored five times as a substitute, the joint-most in the Premier League.

Across his eight top-flight starts for Newcastle, Barnes has produced two goals and one assist. From 17 substitute appearances, he has scored five goals and laid on three. His goals-per-minute ratio as a replacement (83.6 minutes) is significantly better than as a starter (267 minutes), as is his goal-contribution ratio (52.3 minutes as a substitute, 178 minutes as a starter), even if the sample size is relatively small.

In all five league and cup matches Newcastle have played this season, their bench has played a key role in securing a positive result, with Barnes providing a goal and an assist as a substitute already. Although Barnes’ case for a start is persuasive, Howe may see value in holding back his match-changing ability for later in games, when he can come on and disrupt tiring defences, seeing as his record suggests he is even more clinical off the bench.

For the Fulham trip, much will depend on Isak’s potential availability.

If the striker’s facial injury rules him out, Gordon is likely to deputise through the middle — 21-year-old summer signing William Osula is yet to play this season and Wilson is still out with a back problem — and Barnes would then take over his left-wing berth.

But, should Isak be fit to play, Howe has a genuine selection dilemma.

The answer appears obvious to most supporters, but whether Gordon, Isak and Barnes are reunited as a potentially lethal front three remains to be seen.

(Top photos: Getty Images)