Julian Alvarez’s potential exit poses some interesting questions for Manchester City, especially in such a quiet summer on the transfer front.
As The Athletic reported on Monday, Atletico Madrid are increasingly confident of getting a deal done, ready to pay more than five times the £14million ($18million) that City handed over to River Plate in 2022.
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Only three outfielders played more Premier League minutes than Alvarez last season but many of those came with either Kevin De Bruyne or Erling Haaland out with injury. He knows that when that pair are both available, he will most likely be on the bench.
Having outpaced expectations since moving to the Etihad Stadium, this is probably the logical endgame. With Haaland as a team-mate, for Alvarez to stay at City long-term he either needed to outshine the Norwegian or accept more of a supporting role.
Two years down the line, he has made a big impact for the club, but still has higher-performing players ahead of him and, clearly, a supporting role is not in his plans for much longer.
One of the interesting elements of this potential transfer is that, for the most part, Alvarez did a good job of replacing both Haaland and De Bruyne, which is no easy task.
It is clear that he is not a natural playmaker and neither, of course, is he De Bruyne, but for the first few months of last season he was able to fill the No 10 position in his own way, with a bit less creativity but a lot more goal threat, arriving into the box to take advantage of opposition defences already occupied by Haaland.
And when Haaland got injured over Christmas and into the New Year, Alvarez fulfilled a very important role for the team up front. At that stage of the season, Pep Guardiola was very concerned about the absence of John Stones, because Stones had become the answer to City’s tactical problem as a result of Haaland’s arrival.
In short, City used to create an ‘extra man’ in the pockets of space around the box by using a false nine to drop from the striker’s position into deeper areas, thus outnumbering opponents. Haaland is not well suited to that so, halfway through the 2022-23 season, Guardiola moved Stones up the pitch rather than ask the Norwegian to move down.
Stones’ injury caused Guardiola another headache last winter, but Haaland’s injury actually provided an obvious solution: just use Alvarez and ask him to do the old false nine work, restoring balance to City’s team.
When he was called upon to replace Haaland up front later in the season, he did not have the same impact and teams generally dealt with him far more comfortably than they would the Norwegian. He has, though, shown a mixture of versatility and quality that is perfect for City — so long as he was willing to accept more of a squad role.
That blend of talents does not sound easy to replace either, certainly by one player, but City may feel they have variety in the squad to cope without him, even without a replacement.
Phil Foden’s rise to prominence through the middle only came about in the final months of the season, and whenever De Bruyne is not available next season, the Englishman will surely be the go-to option.
Another thing that may help Foden’s case to play in the middle is that, last season, City did not have too many options on the right wing, so he was often used there because he is better suited to a wide role compared to Alvarez.
This season, though, City will have new signing Savinho and Oscar Bobb, who impressed in pre-season, as options, lessening the need for Foden to play there.
Oscar Bobb is expected to play a bigger role for City in 2024-25 (Nick Potts/PA Images via Getty Images)
Then there is James McAtee, who Guardiola says will be part of the City squad next season. The 21-year-old has spent the past two seasons on loan at Sheffield United, more or less at his request because he was so keen for first-team opportunities. His goal was always to come back and be a regular starter at City, and while he is closer to that goal as it stands, opportunity could really knock if Alvarez leaves and City decide that they do not need a replacement.
Any of those players could be deployed as a false 9 if Alvarez goes and Haaland misses a match, returning City to the old days when they did not need a striker at all.
It may be the case that City do go into the market for a senior international to replace Alvarez, if he leaves, although those discussions are ongoing, with some relevant parties expecting news by the end of the week.
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It has been reported that Joao Felix has been offered to them as part of any deal for Alvarez but The Athletic understands that is not an option City want to pursue, and while City gave serious consideration to signing Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace last summer, there has been no recent movement there.
If City do bring in somebody else, it would add some fresh blood to the team in a summer when City have decided they are happy with how the squad is, having not sold any senior players and added just one player, Brazilian winger Savinho.
The signing of Savinho frees up Phil Foden to play centrally more regularly (David Ramos/Getty Images)
While City believe they already have what it takes to keep competing at the highest levels, they do recognise the need for a holding midfielder to step in whenever Rodri is unavailable or needing a rest, and to play alongside him at other times.
They identified Bruno Guimaraes as that man but did not want to meet Newcastle’s valuation. If they were to receive a lump sum for Alvarez it might mean they could go back to the table for the Brazilian, although it is believed that City walked away due to a question of value rather than finances. Receiving more money is unlikely to make a difference, then; it is not that they could not afford that transfer fee, it is that they did not want to pay what Newcastle were asking, and traditionally they have stuck to those valuations and walked away.
Any Alvarez departure would decrease the amount of senior players in the squad and might allow a new face to come in without disrupting the balance of Guardiola’s dressing room, although with Matheus Nunes and, for now, Kalvin Phillips in the mix there are still plenty of options at the back of midfield. The big issue is that none of them are equipped to play the Rodri role alone.
A fit Kevin De Bruyne in 2024-25 would reduce opportunities for Alvarez (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
There had been whispers of a Nunes move to Saudi Arabia at the start of the summer but so far that has not materialised and, as it stands, City will need him to make a big step up in his second season, as many new arrivals have done in recent years. Even so, he is not the kind of player who would be a likely Rodri replacement, so he can be added to the list of players that could benefit from Alvarez’s departure.
There are clearly a lot of permutations when it comes to Alvarez’s possible departure, then, and while City are obviously happy with the players they already have at their disposal and may not replace him, there are a few ways to try something new.
(Top photo: Tim Goode/Getty Images)
