Democrat strategists and their allies in the mainstream media have been sounding alarm bells for several years now over the erosion of support among black and Hispanic/Latino voters.
The slow but steady drop was brought about in part by the inroads Donald Trump has made with both communities. In particular, the Hispanic community has shifted how they’ve voted not just in presidential elections but in Congressional elections as well, which we saw for example in some 2020 and 2022 races in Texas, Florida, and New Mexico.
Needless to say, this has brought about a great wailing and gnashing of teeth, with The Usual Suspects insultingly viewing the changes as primarily being the result of voters who they now say are easily duped.
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They can stick their heads in the sand all they want in terms of trying to understand what brought about the noticeable shifts, but the numbers don’t lie. And as we get ready to head into the final full month before the November elections, there is undoubtedly fresh panic at Kamala HQ over the decline in support for Democrats in the Hispanic community after new polling revealed even more of a drop this election cycle:
But that advantage has declined to Democrats’ lowest level in the past four presidential cycles, according to a new national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground with Latinos at a time when these consequential voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as top priorities. On both of these issues, Latino voters give Trump the advantage, but a majority of them prefer Harris on temperament, competency and having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.
[…]
While Harris’ 14-point advantage is an improvement from President Joe Biden’s standing when he was at the top of the ticket, it is still lower than the past leads Democratic presidential candidates enjoyed in 2012 (by 39 points), 2016 (50 points) and 2020 (36 points), according to NBC’s merged polling data from those past cycles.
Watch NBC News numbers cruncher Steve Kornacki explain the data below:
NBC POLL: President Trump has made a 19-point gain among Latino voters since 2020.
“Four years ago, we were saying Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters — this suggests that has continued apace.” pic.twitter.com/LJRmJrRz7M
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024
What’s behind this Latino-voter erosion for Democrats? Men and younger Latinos pic.twitter.com/AhsLLHU6wD
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 29, 2024
The important thing to note about these numbers is that even though Harris still has a 14-point lead over Trump with Latino voters, it only takes a percentage point or two shift in a battleground state with minority voters to completely change the ball game.
The bottom line here is that with each election cycle, we are seeing more Latino voters take to the polls. We are also seeing more and more of a gravitation among Latino voters towards Republican candidates in these cycles.
That Democrats are having to compete more for these voters than they have in decades confirms two important things: That an increasing number of folks in their normally reliable voting blocs are fed up with woke, and that Republican persistence is paying off. It remains to be seen, though if it will bear fruit in November.
As always, stay tuned.
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