The Edmonton Oilers are in tough against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference final.
The Oilers often have struggled against the Stars, as evidenced by the 5-0 beatdown the last time the teams met in Dallas in April. The Stars finished first in the West and might be the deepest team in the NHL.
But it’s not like the Oilers enter the series without a prayer of winning. Far from it.
They should feel good about their chances of knocking off the Stars and punching their ticket to their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in 18 years.
Here are the four reasons for optimism.
McDavid can and should be better
It seems odd, maybe even absurd, to suggest Connor McDavid could have more to give. The man is second in playoff scoring with 21 points in 12 games, after all.
But he was held off the scoresheet in three of the last five games against the Vancouver Canucks, including Game 7. He hasn’t quite seemed himself.
McDavid has had some elite performances in the playoffs. He opened the postseason with a five-assist effort and was outstanding while recording a goal and three assists in Game 2 in Vancouver.
Those two games have combined for nearly half his production, though.
The Oilers need McDavid to chip in more consistently. The Stars have posed challenges for him, particularly Norris Trophy-calibre defenceman Miro Heiskanen. But he’s still recorded 29 points in 21 career games.
Just a little bit more from McDavid against the Stars compared to what he did against the Canucks could go a long way toward pushing them over the edge.
Skinner might be settling in
Stuart Skinner’s playoffs have been a roller coaster.
He had an iffy start, allowing nine goals over the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings — even if there were some fluky ones in that bunch.
He then shut the door on the road in Hollywood by turning aside 60 of the 61 shots he faced and eventually helped the Oilers close out their series.
The start of the second round couldn’t have gone much worse. He allowed 12 goals on 58 shots through the first eight periods (and a few minutes) and lost his starter’s duties to backup Calvin Pickard for the third frame of Game 3.
Skinner got his job back with the Oilers’ season on the line and did what he needed to do, stopping 29 of 32 pucks in back-to-back wins over the final two contests.
The Stars should have a more well-balanced and formidable attack compared to the Canucks, so Skinner will have to up his level. But given the Oilers’ offensive chops and improved defensive structure, he probably won’t have to steal his team a game. He merely must be solid.
The Oilers’ net is Skinner’s to lose once again. Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch indicated on Wednesday that Skinner will keep playing as long as he keeps winning.
Knoblauch doesn’t sit on his hands
Switching goaltenders was the boldest move Knoblauch made in the Canucks series. It wasn’t the only one.
A criticism of predecessor Jay Woodcroft was that he stuck to his guns in last year’s playoffs, sticking with Skinner and keeping McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line for too long. The same can’t be said for Knoblauch.
Each of his big decisions has worked out swimmingly, starting with benching and returning to Skinner.
Knoblauch put McDavid and Draisaitl together for Games 2 and 3 because of an injury sustained to the latter. He moved away from that combination as quickly as he could, knowing it was best for his lineup.
He split up the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci to start Game 4, realizing the Oilers were unlikely to win the way things were going there.
He elevated Dylan Holloway to a line with Draisaitl and Evander Kane for Game 5 and the sophomore winger responded with a beautiful goal in the next contest.
He scratched Corey Perry, his most experienced player and someone GM Ken Holland couldn’t wait to sign, for the last two games. Derek Ryan gave the third line a bit more juice and Sam Carrick was a useful addition to the fourth trio.
The timeout he called in Game 7 after Vancouver’s second goal may have averted disaster.
Knoblauch will surely have to make more adjustments and difficult decisions at times against the Stars. They probably won’t all work out as well, but at least he’s not afraid to try things.
Special teams could be an X-factor
If the Oilers’ special teams didn’t flat-out win them the Kings series, they were no worse than a major factor in moving on.
Though the power play cooled off late against the Canucks, going without a goal in 10 straight opportunities, it came through when it counted. A Ryan Nugent-Hopkins marker on that 11th chance in the second period of Game 7 stood as the winner.
Even with the drought, the power play went 6-for-22 in the series, a solid 27.3 percent success rate. It’s been truly elite in the postseason, scoring on 15 of 40 opportunities — 37.5 percent.
That’s good news considering the Stars have had their issues on the penalty kill in the playoffs, allowing six goals on 26 short-handed opportunities — a 69.2 percent clip.
The special teams battle could come down to the Edmonton kill against the Dallas power play.
The Stars have scored on 29 percent of their chances on the man advantage. That should concern the Oilers but not scare them. The Oilers have killed off 32 of 35 short-handed attempts — an excellent 91.4 percent mark.
(Photo of Connor McDavid defending Thomas Harley: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
