NEW YORK — The New York Mets concluded their homestand Sunday in what has become a signature style: late in the game, they blew another lead. Since the start of May, they’ve led through eight innings and lost six times, four more times than any other team. After a bad road trip, which ignited questions about the depth of their selling come the trade deadline, they played 10 games at Citi Field over a chaotic stretch and went 3-7.
It’s the first week of June, and sites like FanGraphs (7.6 percent) are giving the Mets (24-35) less than 10 percent odds of making the playoffs.
Here are some takeaways.
Lack of strength
The Mets don’t have a particular strength. There’s not one aspect of the game they can point to as something capable of carrying them over a winning streak. That’s a reason why they haven’t won three games in a row since mid-April.
Before the season, scouts suggested that the lineup could be the Mets’ muscle. That may still end up being the case, especially when Francisco Alvarez returns; on rare good days for the team, it has looked capable. But the offense has largely performed inconsistently. Even with a couple of high-scoring games sprinkled in during the homestand, they produced a .697 OPS, 13th in the major leagues over the 10-game stretch, which is decent but hardly the kind of thing that routinely bails out poor pitching and defense.
Injuries hurt
The good teams — the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves quickly come to mind — overcome injuries, however big the void may be. For the Mets, injuries to Alvarez and Kodai Senga plus absences in the bullpen made their situation dire.
Without Senga, the Mets entered the season leaning on Jose Quintana for some stability. Instead, the veteran’s struggles have encapsulated the pitching staff’s woes during a season gone awry. After lasting just four innings and allowing three runs Sunday, Quintana, 35, has a 5.17 ERA while averaging approximately five innings per start. His 15.7-percent strikeout rate is his lowest since 2012, his rookie year. The Mets’ rotation has the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.8 percent), and second-highest walk rate (9.9 percent) and the group’s inability to pitch past the fifth inning — especially during the first month of the season — burdened the bullpen.
With Edwin Díaz struggling and now on the injured list and Brooks Raley and Drew Smith (who was activated Sunday) unavailable, the bullpen failed to hold leads late. Whether the Mets turned to Adam Ottavino, Reed Garrett or Jake Diekman, it didn’t matter; recently things have rarely worked out well late in games. Since May 1, the Mets’ bullpen has produced a 5.01 ERA and -1.0 fWAR; the second-worst group in that span is the Colorado Rockies with a -0.5 fWAR. Part of the issue is a regression that was probably due, given how much the group was collectively used in April. The other part of the struggle comes from needing to insert players in roles they are not suited for.
Marginal moves, minimal impact
The Mets moved quickly to acquire Luis Torrens, but what will happen to him once Francisco Alvarez is healthy? (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
The front office sent a healthy message to the roster when they designated catcher Omar Narváez for assignment and acquired Luis Torrens from the Yankees as a replacement. They could’ve waited for Alvarez to return — he may do so this weekend or shortly after that — and just dumped Narváez at that point. But they didn’t. With Torrens available, they acted. Essentially, the move demonstrated that they want to upgrade the floor of their roster and things aren’t guaranteed on the fringes — the Mets must still make a decision at backup catcher between Torrens and Tomás Nido when Alvarez returns.
It’s the right way to proceed, but the sentiment underscores the position that the Mets are in; there’s just not much else the front office can do in terms of levers to pull. Not yet, anyway; they made lineup changes, tried different bullpen arms and promoted their top pitching prospect last month (their top position player prospects are either hurt or not quite ready for a call-up). Smart improvements on the margins tend to make a difference for clubs hovering around .500. The Mets have needed more from their top players with everyday jobs and sizable roles.
Vientos deserved a chance
The Mets made the right choice last week when they gave Mark Vientos the runway at third base (Jose Iglesias may see occasional time there, but the bulk of action belongs to Vientos). New York decided it was the right time to do so given the combination of Brett Baty’s struggles and the expectation to see a heavy amount of left-handed pitching. But Vientos also deserved the chance. Vientos has long demonstrated power, but officials always surmised that if he was given a full-time amount of plate appearances, he’d hit more than 20 home runs. The concern was always what the rest of the numbers would like. This season, though, (granted a small sample so far), club officials have said they’re encouraged by a more mature game plan, preparation and approach to every at-bat, which is helping Vientos make more contact against non-fastballs.
Something to cling to
In a league where six teams advance to the playoffs and only five own winning records, the Mets remain five games out of a spot, despite their underwhelming play. It’s the only thing saving them from starting the doomsday countdown to the deadline now. The Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets’ opponent over the weekend, showed last year that it’s possible to sneak into the playoffs and win the pennant.
But seven teams are ahead of the Mets for the final wild-card spot. The Mets are closer to being the worst team in the league (the Miami Marlins have three fewer wins, four more losses) than they are to being the sixth-best. For the Mets, things need to quickly change on a serious level to change the conversation about the trade deadline. Just showing that they’re capable of getting into the playoffs may not be enough to thwart at least some level of selling.
“The expanded playoffs certainly change what it takes to get in,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said. “How it changes how you look at a specific deadline is very situation-specific in terms of team. The goal, obviously, is not just to get in. You want to get in and advance and have a run and play deep into October. So the evaluation ultimately is, do we have a team that we think is capable of doing that?”
(Top photo of Vientos: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
