Fantasy trends and hidden gems: Top breakout, rebound, and regression candidates for 2024-25

Matty Beniers, SEA

A 20-point drop in scoring is nothing to shrug at. It’s a pretty big step back that can’t just be chalked up to bad luck. While he progressed into more of a two-way threat, his offensive impact declined from his rookie year. 

With new voices behind the bench, the Kraken should make some tactical adjustments to get back on track offensively. That should help both at five-on-five and especially on the power play. The addition of Brandon Montour could add another offensive spark from the blue line that helps elevate this forward group, too. 

The Kraken still are running with their balanced approach, so Beniers probably won’t see the same minutes as other top-liners around the league. But I expect him to build on his 57-point rookie season after last year’s setbacks. 

Elias Lindholm, BOS

Lindholm suffered through awful shooting luck in Calgary last year. He shot less than seven percent in all situations on his way to scoring nine goals. That was about nine goals fewer than expected based on his shot quality. The center did a better job converting on his chances down the stretch in Vancouver, but we think Boston could be an even better fit. 

Lindholm’s in a position to rebound with the Bruins, especially if he plays on a line with David Pastrnak. There, he wouldn’t have to be the driver of his line. Instead, he can play a supporting role alongside the elite winger, which should help him channel his strengths. 

Mikhail Sergachev, UHC

Sergachev has had a couple of rocky seasons. It took him some time to adapt to playing more meaningful minutes in Tampa Bay after Ryan McDonagh was traded in 2022-23. And last year, injuries shortened his season to just 34 games — and his play in those games wasn’t exactly encouraging. 

Now Sergachev has the chance to prove that he can be a No. 1 defenseman outside of Victor Hedman’s shadow. 

As Utah’s top defenseman, the coaches will likely maximize deployment around him, which should mean prime minutes with the team’s best forwards at even strength and on PP1. If John Marino can rebound as well, Sergachev should also have the defensive support to thrive in this expanded role. 

Jamie Drysdale, PHI

Drysdale has shown glimpses of his skill at the NHL level but hasn’t put it all together yet. Injuries have derailed his progress at times. And in some instances, he’s looked overwhelmed by his workload. 

There’s definitely some risk here, but there could be some offensive reward if the Flyers’ defensive structure can help balance out his game. What caught my eye was the fact that his teams — the Flyers and Ducks — shot less than four percent in his five-on-five minutes and had a combined 0.883 save percentage. That helps explain why his goal rate was a putrid 24 percent when his teams were expected to be closer to 45 percent across 34 games. The actual goals matter, and Drysdale’s play on both ends of the ice likely contributed to such bad results. But maybe with a little more luck than last season, he can trend back up from last year’s injury-riddled struggles. 

Honorable mentions: Andrew Mangiapane (WAS), Joonas Korpisalo (BOS)

Regressions

Sam Reinhart, FLA

With regressions, the focus is going to be on two of the biggest candidates in the league.