One of the keys to running a successful fantasy team? Start spotting trends.
Today, we’re going to look at three specific trends — players on the verge of a breakout, those we expect to regress from last season, and rebound candidates. Let’s get right to it!
Breakouts
Lucas Raymond, DET
A 31-goal, 72-point campaign is just the start for Raymond. He raised his game when the Red Wings’ season was on the line with 11 points in six games to end the season — and that’s where I expect him to pick up this year.
The one red flag is the fact that Raymond shot 19 percent last year, which doesn’t scream sustainability. But his play-driving ability grew as last season progressed, and that may be able to balance out any regression worries. Raymond looks ready to become a true offensive threat this season, making him a player to watch.
JJ Peterka, BUF
I talked about Peterka last week in my sleeper column, so let’s keep this one short and sweet.
While a lot of players in Buffalo took a step back last season, Peterka was one of the few bright spots. His scoring chance creation, goal scoring, and consistency were all standouts, especially at five-on-five. With some of the core Sabres poised to rebound under a new-look coaching staff, Peterka should have more scoring support around him, which should kick his game up a notch.
Logan Cooley, UHC
All of the chaos in Arizona last year overshadowed the progress this team made — and some of it was thanks to their up-and-coming talent.
Cooley showed glimpses of his potential throughout the season, from his ability to break out of his own zone with control to his scoring chance creation and passing. He heated up down the stretch to boost his season totals to 20 goals and 44 points.
This season, Cooley should be in a position to thrive no matter where he slots in the top six. He could pop off alongside another breakout candidate in Dylan Guenther, or maybe he could become the center Clayton Keller’s been missing.
Brandt Clarke, LAK
Clarke was expected to become more of a mainstay in Los Angeles this season as an offensive spark from the blue line. But with Drew Doughty sidelined for the next few months, Clarke just became an even more meaningful part of this team. He should see expanded usage at five-on-five and could be tapped as the replacement quarterback for the top power-play unit. The latter gives him the best opportunity to play to his offensive strengths and the best fantasy potential.
Honorable mentions: Pavel Dorofeyev (LV), Jack Quinn (BUF), Adam Boqvist (CHI)
Rebounds
Matty Beniers, SEA
A 20-point drop in scoring is nothing to shrug at. It’s a pretty big step back that can’t just be chalked up to bad luck. While he progressed into more of a two-way threat, his offensive impact declined from his rookie year.
With new voices behind the bench, the Kraken should make some tactical adjustments to get back on track offensively. That should help both at five-on-five and especially on the power play. The addition of Brandon Montour could add another offensive spark from the blue line that helps elevate this forward group, too.
The Kraken still are running with their balanced approach, so Beniers probably won’t see the same minutes as other top-liners around the league. But I expect him to build on his 57-point rookie season after last year’s setbacks.
Elias Lindholm, BOS
Lindholm suffered through awful shooting luck in Calgary last year. He shot less than seven percent in all situations on his way to scoring nine goals. That was about nine goals fewer than expected based on his shot quality. The center did a better job converting on his chances down the stretch in Vancouver, but we think Boston could be an even better fit.
Lindholm’s in a position to rebound with the Bruins, especially if he plays on a line with David Pastrnak. There, he wouldn’t have to be the driver of his line. Instead, he can play a supporting role alongside the elite winger, which should help him channel his strengths.
Mikhail Sergachev, UHC
Sergachev has had a couple of rocky seasons. It took him some time to adapt to playing more meaningful minutes in Tampa Bay after Ryan McDonagh was traded in 2022-23. And last year, injuries shortened his season to just 34 games — and his play in those games wasn’t exactly encouraging.
Now Sergachev has the chance to prove that he can be a No. 1 defenseman outside of Victor Hedman’s shadow.
As Utah’s top defenseman, the coaches will likely maximize deployment around him, which should mean prime minutes with the team’s best forwards at even strength and on PP1. If John Marino can rebound as well, Sergachev should also have the defensive support to thrive in this expanded role.
Jamie Drysdale, PHI
Drysdale has shown glimpses of his skill at the NHL level but hasn’t put it all together yet. Injuries have derailed his progress at times. And in some instances, he’s looked overwhelmed by his workload.
There’s definitely some risk here, but there could be some offensive reward if the Flyers’ defensive structure can help balance out his game. What caught my eye was the fact that his teams — the Flyers and Ducks — shot less than four percent in his five-on-five minutes and had a combined 0.883 save percentage. That helps explain why his goal rate was a putrid 24 percent when his teams were expected to be closer to 45 percent across 34 games. The actual goals matter, and Drysdale’s play on both ends of the ice likely contributed to such bad results. But maybe with a little more luck than last season, he can trend back up from last year’s injury-riddled struggles.
Honorable mentions: Andrew Mangiapane (WAS), Joonas Korpisalo (BOS)
Regressions
Sam Reinhart, FLA
With regressions, the focus is going to be on two of the biggest candidates in the league.
A 57-goal season is a big jump from Reinhart’s prior high of 33. And the fact that he shot 24.5 percent — the second-highest rate in the league — contributed to that success and screams unsustainable.
So, how do you navigate Reinhart this season?
As a fellow manager with Reinhart on their team, do I expect another 50-plus goal season? Probably not, especially if Matthew Tkachuk becomes more of a dual threat on the power play this season after deferring into more of a playmaking role last season.
But do I still expect him to be productive? Absolutely.
The quality of his shot attempts last year added up to 42 expected goals before accounting for his finishing talent. That’s a promising sign because 1.) it shows the oomph he has behind that goal-scoring, and 2.) it’s not entirely uncharacteristic, either. It’s progress from his expected goal total of 39 in 2022-23.
Reinhart will likely remain a two-way threat in Florida this season and score a bunch, thanks to his role in the top six and PP1. But a more reasonable expectation is probably the 80-point range, which he has reached before last year’s heights. Anything more than that is just gravy.
J.T. Miller, VAN
How real were Miller’s numbers last season? It’s the big question we faced in this year’s Player Tiers project.
Miller created quality chances while balancing tough minutes in Vancouver. He put up 37 goals, 103 points, and 40 power play points. Every single aspect of his season is excellent from a fantasy perspective.
But we can’t help but pause over the fact that the Canucks shot 12.9 percent in Miller’s five-on-five minutes last year. Not only was his on-ice shooting percentage the third highest in the league, but Vancouver’s goalies earned a 0.922 save percentage. Those numbers, especially together, generally are a sign of unsustainable results.
So, what should you do with this information? Have more reasonable expectations this season. Miller should still be a fantasy asset, but unless he can recreate last year’s magic without the same amount of puck luck, a landing spot in the 90-point range feels more realistic.
Honorable mentions: MacKenzie Weegar (CAL), Jake Neighbours (STL)
GO DEEPER
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Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Lucas Raymond: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
