The weekend is upon us, and Week 8 is just around the corner, so let’s spot some gems and highlight some player trends to prepare you for the week ahead.
Four-Game Streamers
Vasily Podkolzin, RW, EDM | 1% Yahoo
With the Oilers, the thinking is simple: always try to pinpoint players skating alongside the team’s best. The problem is that Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, on Connor McDavid’s line, just aren’t available. But Leon Draisaitl’s linemates are available in some leagues. Viktor Arvidsson’s injury status is the wild card — he brings the shot volume and some scoring (and for whatever reason, I still think that will improve after a pretty slow start). So maybe consider Podkolzin, who is on the left side of that line. The results aren’t there yet, but they should come. Edmonton’s driving play at 58 percent of the expected goal share with Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidson on the ice, but the team is just shooting less than five percent in their minutes. If that shooting percentage comes up, that trio should be on the scoresheet regularly.
Darnell Nurse, D, EDM | 55% Yahoo
Have the Oilers finally figured out how to maximize Nurse? It looks that way. Nurse isn’t a big-time scorer and doesn’t see PP1 usage, but he contributes a lot to the secondary categories for which many managers lean on defenders. So managers should start feeling more confident putting him in the lineup or picking him up for this stretch of favorable scheduling. Against the Canadiens next Monday, expect Nurse to play to his shot-volume strengths. The Senators and Rangers should keep him busy in the block department later in the week.
Will Smith, C, SJS | 7% Yahoo
On Thursday, the Sharks tinkered with their combinations to get a better look at Smith with Macklin Celebrini. If these young guns start clicking, it should give the Sharks a preview of what’s ahead with this one-two punch.
Another option in San Jose is Fabian Zetterlund, who brings the shot volume and secondary scoring. The Sharks’ second line is outscoring expectations, so don’t expect this to necessarily be a long-term pickup unless they start adding more oomph below the surface.
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, SJS | 7% Yahoo
San Jose seems to agree with Blackwood after his value tanked in New Jersey over the past few seasons. With seven quality starts in 10 games, he could be a worthwhile add for managers who do not need to prioritize wins.
Alexander Kerfoot, C/LW, UTA | 1% Yahoo
Utah has seriously slowed down, so it’s really tricky to pinpoint a player here. Nick Bjugstad is in a position to succeed between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz — the second line has solid underlying numbers, too. But maybe the coaches have found something with the third line of Kerfoot, Barrett Hayton, and Lawson Crouse. Against the Hurricanes on Wednesday night, the trio earned about 75 percent of the expected goal share, which is extra encouraging against such a strong contender. If they can build some momentum here, maybe they will become a more reliable source of secondary scoring. Kerfoot gets the nod out of the three thanks to his placement on PP1.
JJ Peterka, LW/RW, BUF | 44% Yahoo
The Sabres have underwhelmed so far this season, but Peterka remains one of their most consistent producers. He’s shown he can drive a line, so maybe he can be the spark that Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have been missing.
Bobby McMann, LW, TOR | 3% Yahoo
Speaking of underwhelming offensively, there’s the Maple Leafs. After getting shutout by the Senators on Tuesday, McMann was moved up to play with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Together, in less than 15 minutes of five-on-five action, this trio now has a 57 percent expected goal rate. It doesn’t mean a ton in this small of a sample, besides the fact they will probably get a longer look together.
Troy Terry, C/RW, ANA | 20% Yahoo
Terry is too good and too consistent to be this available in most leagues — even with the #BadTeamEffect in mind. As disappointing as the Ducks are this year, Terry continues to produce despite his surroundings.
Mason Marchment, LW, DAL | 30% Yahoo
Marchment, Matt Duchene, and Tyler Seguin have become a reliable second line in Dallas. The team is outscoring opponents 5-1 in their five-on-five minutes. Marchment and Seguin are available in most leagues, and either one makes for a solid pickup since the Stars are a more dangerous team offensively when they are on the ice. Marchment gets the slight edge thanks to his shot volume, which is second on the team in all situations.
Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW, WPG | 54% Yahoo
Vilardi’s roster percentage has been pretty low to start the season, and I’m chalking that up to durability concerns. It’s understandable after his last season in Winnipeg, but the Jets have gotten off to a fantastic start, and his scoring on that top line is a big part of it. While there are defensive issues on the Jets’ top line, their offense is still outweighing it.
Vladislav Namestnikov, C/LW, WPG | 17% Yahoo
Winnepeg’s second line of Cole Perfetti, Namestnikov, and Nikolaj Ehlers is outpacing expectations with a 10-4 goal advantage in their minutes. Namestnikov is the more attainable option. While there is some reason for worry about their underlying numbers in sheltered minutes and Namestnikov’s sky-high shooting percentage, managers can still try to benefit from his hot hand when there are few other players in action.
Fantasy Projection Update
The rest-of-season rankings and player projections were updated earlier this week, so let’s look at some of the biggest differences from preseason.
Alex Laferriere has gone from a depth option to a legitimate fantasy asset in Los Angeles, as has Brandt Clarke. The Kings are capitalizing on their scoring chances more often this year at even strength, and these two have a lot to do with it.
Casey Mittelstadt’s value has jumped up since the preseason, but he has slowed down a bit recently after his hot start. Don’t drop the center just yet — Valeri Nichushkin is set to return Friday, which should give him more support on the wing at even strength.
Mats Zuccarello is benefiting from Kirill Kaprizov’s MVP-caliber start in Minnesota. With Elias Pettersson finally on the rise, Conor Garland is reaping more benefits in the Canucks’ top six. Shayne Gostisbehere has fit seamlessly back into the Hurricanes’ system, while Anders Lee is finally picking up the pace on Long Island.
Elias Pettersson (and Jake DeBrusk) are both fittingly among the biggest fallers in terms of fantasy value. But both are showing encouraging signs of late and seem to be back on track.
Wyatt Johnston has star potential, so we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt. However, managers can cut bait with Michael Bunting and instead look to Rickard Rakell or even Anthony Beauvillier to maintain a Pittsburgh presence. But considering the team’s trajectory, managers may want to look elsewhere. The same applies to Jake Neighbours in St. Louis.
Jack Quinn is a tricky one — he and Cozens have seriously struggled together to open the season. Maybe give him some time with Peterka on that line and then decide how best to proceed.
As for Trevor Zegras, there are more reliable contributors to bet on in Anaheim (see Terry again). It’s not just a Zegras problem but a Ducks problem — the team has tried to emphasize defense more over the past year, and it’s decimated the offense that made them so special and exciting.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Darnell Nurse: Leila Devlin/Getty Images)
