This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 11 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
Five top running backs — including three of the best in the league, posted season low point totals in Week 11 — making RB struggles something of an overarching theme.
Should fantasy managers rostering those backs be concerned? This review will dive into the rest of fantasy season schedule and a schedule difficulty score, which is measured on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being most favorable.
Derrick Henry, BAL
Rest of fantasy season schedule: LAC, PHI, BYE, NYG, PIT, HOU
Schedule difficulty score: 37
Henry posted his lowest point total since Week 17 of last season with 10.5 against Pittsburgh. It also marked the third time in the past four weeks Henry has tallied fewer than 15 points, which hasn’t happened to him since Weeks 1-5 of last season.
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Two of those subpar games were against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, defenses that rank 19th and 28th, respectively, in fantasy points allowed per game on planned rushing plays since Week 8. That means it wasn’t a matter of unfavorable matchups.
It should also be noted that last year Henry had six games with fewer than 10 points, so being hit-or-miss might be built into his fantasy scoring structure, especially since he is so reliant on rushing for points (he has only 10 receptions all season long).
The upcoming schedule won’t make things easier, with the next two matchups against teams that have been recently stingy against running backs. Both the Chargers and Eagles rank in the top nine in fantasy PPG allowed on planned rush plays in Weeks 8-11. Henry also has a bye in Week 14, so there will be lost value there.
Bottom line: It might be time to consider trading Henry if your trading window is still open, as long as you’re getting a strong return value.
Jonathan Taylor, IND
Rest of fantasy season schedule: DET, NE, BYE, DEN, TEN, NYG
Schedule difficulty score: 32
Taylor’s 7.0 points versus the Jets was his lowest point total since Week 5 of last season. It wasn’t from a lack of work, as Taylor’s 25 scrimmage plays versus Indianapolis was his second highest total since 2023 and the highest mark he has posted this year.
Anthony Richardson’s resurgence contributed to Taylor’s decline somewhat, as the QB recorded two rushing touchdowns on designed runs. But before getting too concerned, note that in the six games that both Richardson and Taylor have played together this year, Taylor has 14 carries on goal-to-go rushing plays versus six for Richardson (and one of those occurred on a scramble play). If this trend continues, it could have some impact on his goal-line scoring, but in most cases, it won’t eliminate his goal line value as it did in the Jets game.
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That plus is somewhat offset by the low schedule difficulty score, however. The Colts’ next three foes rank 13th or better in planned rush play PPG since Week 8. Another negative is that the Colts have a bye in Week 14.
Bottom line: Combine these elements and it might be while before Taylor is back to his true impactful ways. He could also be a trade candidate if the window is open, and the trade value is strong.
Kyren Williams, LAR
Rest of fantasy season schedule: PHI, NO, BUF, SF, NYJ, ARI
Schedule difficulty score: 39
Williams posted only 8.6 points versus New England, his lowest point total since Week 5 of the 2023 season. His 15 scrimmage plays versus the Patriots were also his fewest since that contest.
The Rams were missing two starting offensive tackles in this game, but that’s been the case for weeks now and thus is now par for the course. There is a concern that Los Angeles had only one goal-to-go rush play in this game and gave that carry to Blake Corum. But Williams has 18 goal-to-go carries this year versus Corum’s three, so that’s almost certainly an anomaly.
The Rams’ schedule doesn’t contain a bye, but it does contain matchups against teams that rank in the top 10 in PPG in planned rushing plays since Week 8 (Philadelphia in Week 12, Buffalo in Week 14). That’s not very favorable, but the New York Jets matchup in Week 16 is highly favorable, with the Jets ranking 29th in that category.
Bottom line: These elements merge in a way that suggests Williams overall value is trending upward. Stay the course and don’t consider moving him.
Aaron Jones, MIN
Rest of fantasy season schedule: CHI, ARI, ATL, CHI, SEA, GB
Schedule difficulty score: 50
Jones posted only 5.3 points versus Tennessee, his lowest point total since Week 11 of last season. Those points came off 16 scrimmage plays against the Titans., which is not a high number for Jones. He has five games with 19-plus scrimmage plays this year, but that volume alone is not enough to be a concern.
What is a concern is that this backfield seems to be evolving towards a platoon setup. Check out the running back snap counts for the Vikings over the past two weeks.
Vikings Snap Counts Weeks 10-11
| Player | Off Snaps | Pass Snaps | Rush Snaps | Routes | Pass Block Snaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
81 |
41 |
40 |
35 |
6 |
|
|
49 |
25 |
24 |
22 |
3 |
|
|
40 |
16 |
24 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
12 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
Jones is getting more snaps, but if Akers and Chandler’s snaps are added (Ham is a blocking back), they combine to equal a platoon-caliber volume.
The good news for Jones is that he has the two goal-line carries by a running back over the past two weeks, so he doesn’t look to be losing those valuable carries to Akers.
Bottom line: The workload division means Jones likely won’t get back to his Weeks 1-7 form where he scored 17 or more points in four out of six games. He will likely retain the flex value that he has shown since then.
Tony Pollard, TEN
Rest of fantasy season schedule: HOU, WAS, JAX, CIN, IND, JAX
Schedule difficulty score: 100
Pollard scored only 4.9 points against the Vikings in Week 11. That was his lowest point total since Week 18 of the 2022 season. It is also the lowest total he’s had in a standard fantasy week since Week 4 of the 2022 campaign.
The concern here is something this series has noted about Pollard on many occasions. By his own admission and per the Dallas Cowboys running backs coach in 2022, Pollard is just not built to be a bell cow back. He tends to wear down after getting a lot of scrimmage plays, which is why Pollard had the lowest PPG and points per scrimmage play totals in all scoring categories among running backs with 300 or more scrimmage plays in the 2023 season.
That trend all but guaranteed that Pollard’s production was going to drop after he posted 23 scrimmage plays against Detroit in Week 8 and 31 scrimmage plays against the Patriots in Week 9.
Pollard has tallied only 13 and 11 scrimmage plays, respectively, over the past two weeks. That shows the Titans are probably resting him and it could be enough to get him back to a higher per play production pace.
Bottom line: If the recent rest helps, Pollard could end up being a key fantasy starter down the stretch and in the playoffs since the Titans have the most favorable schedule difficulty score. Trade for him if possible and if someone drops him after this week’s low score, be sure to make Pollard a priority waiver pickup.
(Photo of Derrick Henry: Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
