This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 10 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
The best football coaches know that NFL draft status shouldn’t guarantee a spot in their starting lineup and the best fantasy managers know the same. This is especially true following 10 weeks of scoring evidence that illustrates who should be in starting lineups and who should be riding the bench.
The issue here is that many fantasy managers seemed to be overlooking this evidence when picking starting quarterbacks.
To help illustrate this, here are the top 12 quarterbacks in starting percentage for Week 10.
Now let’s look at the top 12 quarterbacks in Week 10 by points scored. The quarterbacks who were in the top 12 starters by percentage are marked in green.
Top 12 QBs in Week 12 (Through Sunday)
That’s only seven out of 12 quarterbacks who were on the top 12 list in both categories.
To be fair, few — if any — fantasy managers outside of extremely deep leagues would have even considered starting Will Levis this week, and not many would have started Derek Carr knowing that Chris Olave was out.
But outside those anomalies, the reality is that players like Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Bo Nix and others actually belong in the top 12 starters in most leagues. That’s not just based on this one week, and in many instances, they’ve demonstrated their superb scoring for a month or longer.
Here are cases for those three and two other QBs who should be seeing more starts or at least added to rosters for the fantasy season stretch run and playoffs.
Bo Nix, Denver
Week 10 roster rate: 50.5 percent
Week 10 start rate: 15.3 percent
To understand why Bo Nix’s roster and starter rates should be much higher, consider that since Week 5, Nix’s dual-threat skills have resulted in his ranking sixth in QB PPG. He is also sixth in rushing PPG and ninth in passing PPG during that span.
In addition, Nix just posted 17.72 and 16.1 points, respectively, in road matchups at Baltimore and Kansas City, two of the toughest road environments in the NFL. Someone of this scoring caliber should be started in all 12-team leagues.
Given his roster rate, Nix could be one of the most valuable additions for teams that need a quarterback production upgrade.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 10 roster rate: 47.8 percent
Week 10 start rate: 18.4 percent
It took some time for the Jim Harbaugh offense to take hold with the Chargers, in part due to Herbert’s ankle injury earlier this year. Those items prevented Herbert from posting a 15-point game until Week 8.
That changed over the next three weeks. Since Week 8, Herbert ranks eighth in QB PPG with a 21.1-point average and has scored at least 19 points in each of those contests. What makes this even more impressive is that Herbert is eighth in passing PPG during that span. This shows Harbaugh is willing to alter his run-first mantra when given the right passing personnel, something he also did at various times during his Michigan head coaching tenure.
Harbaugh will almost certainly keep that trend going given the Chargers’ upcoming matchups. In Weeks 12-16, Los Angeles faces four red-rated rush defense matchups in five games. Now consider that the Chargers’ next five games are against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, and there is good potential for high-scoring games in which Herbert will throw the ball often. It’s a recipe for continued fantasy scoring success.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh
Week 10 roster rate: 40.2 percent
Week 10 start rate: 22.9 percent
The Steelers’ modus operandi in recent years has been a strong defense protecting a weak offense. It hasn’t been that way since Wilson took over as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback in Week 7. The Steelers have averaged 28 PPG in that span, a pace that ranks fifth highest.
Wilson is fourth in overall, vertical and stretch vertical passing PPG in those four weeks. There may be room to improve on this considering that deep threat Mike Williams was acquired via trade last week. In their first game working together, Wilson hit Williams for a game-winning 32-yard touchdown pass to beat a strong Commanders defense. The QB-WR tandem could get even better with more time working together.
The schedule should afford Wilson, Williams and George Pickens plenty of big-play passing opportunities. The Steelers have green-rated vertical pass coverage matchups in four of the next six weeks, including two straight in Weeks 11-12.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Week 10 roster rate: 31.0 percent
Week 10 start rate: 11.8 percent
It is no coincidence that Stafford went from deep bench candidate to strong starter the minute Cooper Kupp returned to the Rams starting lineup in Week 8. Stafford ranks sixth in PPG over the past two weeks and achieved part of that in Week 9 despite Puka Nacua’s early ejection for throwing a punch at another player.
Another plus for Stafford is that the bulk of his production occurs on short passes. He ranks third in short PPG over the past two weeks. That should help offset a somewhat daunting deep pass coverage schedule in Weeks 11-16 when the Rams face four red-rated vertical pass coverage matchups.
That may make Stafford a lower priority option in leagues that offer bonus points for big plays. In every other league type, the high volume of dink-and-dunk throws should keep Stafford in the QB1 range.
Geno Smith, Seattle
Week 10 roster rate: 50.9 percent
Week 10 start rate: N/A (Bye)
Smith is one of only seven quarterbacks this year to post six or more games with 17-plus fantasy points. He ranks 10th in pass PPG and is even better on vertical passes, placing fifth in PPG in that category.
Those long pass numbers should improve since Seattle is on track to get DK Metcalf back from a knee injury for Week 11.
These should combine to make Smith a high-floor candidate who could get into some scoreboard shootouts in matchups against San Francisco and Arizona in Weeks 11, 12 and 14.
(Photo of Bo Nix: Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
