This article is all about decision-making and avoiding all the biases that can lead you to make bad ones, ideally. One aspect I haven’t addressed yet is when you make a good decision and bad things result. The official response to this situation is the infuriating “process over results.” It does literally nothing to alleviate my rage at Russell Wilson, even two days later. I’ve been working on my short-term memory though, so hopefully by Thursday night I’ll have forgotten all about how he spectacularly failed in the absolute best situation for fantasy QBs.
But I do hope I’m modeling good decision-making here, through outlining the reasons I’m not overthinking a star in a bad matchup, or why I think it’s a good week to tinker with a new waiver pickup or perennial bench warmer. The process does matter. Full stop. How you weight the statistics you consume in search of the right answer to a sit/start decision is crucial. Using the best information you have, while recognizing that no predictive model is perfect, leads to the most consistently good results. Even when we get it wrong – occasionally spectacularly wrong, Russell Wilson – we don’t throw the process out the window.
GO DEEPER
Fantasy football rankings Week 12: Sleepers, projections, starts, Bo Nix, Rome Odunze
We also don’t stop searching for meaning. For instance, even though Baltimore’s pass defense has been absolutely non-existent all season up until Week 11, that was not the case in Week 11. They recorded four sacks, well above their season average, and allowed only 181 passing yards, a far cry from their league-high average of 284.5 yards per game. This came as a result of reshuffling personnel in the secondary that seemed to work. I’ll need to see if it works again at the Chargers on Monday Night before I reel in my desire to start QBs and WRs facing Baltimore, but the potential for the Ravens’ defense to not be a weekly pushover is noted.
Now, let’s dive into some potentially prickly Week 12 decisions. I’m pitting more acceptable, entrenched starters in bad situations against some up-and-comers who might be too tempting to leave on the bench.
QB: Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. Philadelphia or Tommy DeVito, NYG vs. Tampa Bay
Let’s make the case against Stafford: Philadelphia, famously one of the classic funnel defenses that could stop the run cold but was susceptible to the pass in a very fantasy-friendly way, has literally stopped the flow. The Eagles allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points this season to QBs and the fewest to opposing teams as a whole — and they’ve been equally good at home and on the road. Now, Stafford is coming off a brilliant 295-yard, four-touchdown game vs. New England and the Rams are at home. On the other hand, he’s struggled against good pass defenses (see Miami in Week 10 and Chicago in Week 4, though he was without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua against the Bears). Even though they’re underdogs, their team total is still a decent 23.5 points.
DeVito is a complete unknown this year. He played a meaningful role in six games last season, throwing eight touchdown passes and three interceptions, with an average of 175 passing yards. He added an average of 30 rushing yards in that span. In his favor are opportunity, Malik Nabers, and the Bucs, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and second-most overall. “Tommy Cutlets” was a fan favorite, though his numbers were pedestrian and his winning percentage was merely .500. Still, .500 is a lot better than where the Giants sit now (2-8) and the second-year QB must feel like this chance is an early job interview for next season.
Verdict? I picked up and am starting DeVito in a SuperFlex league decimated by bye weeks, but for those in standard formats, I’d go with the higher floor that Stafford has thanks to his experience and receivers … I just don’t expect a ceiling game from him.
RB: Austin Ekeler, WAS vs. Dallas or Javonte Williams, DEN at Las Vegas
Just when everyone was all set to write off Williams following Sean Payton’s comments, the running back came roaring back onto the fantasy radar with 59 yards and a touchdown on the ground and four catches for 28 yards receiving. Maybe that’s not roaring, but he can’t be completely dismissed. Even though the game was out of hand early and almost all of Audric Estime’s work came in the fourth quarter, Williams still out-touched and out-performed the rookie. Week 12 is setting up to be a very nice spot for the Denver backs as Las Vegas ranks as the seventh-best fantasy RB matchup and gives up the fourth-most points per game to opponents. Though this situation in Denver could get messy fast, it seems like Williams has done enough to cling to the starting role.
Ekeler has mostly been a fantasy stalwart this season, like all the seasons, really. He succeeded in a bigger rushing role when Brian Robinson Jr. missed time in Week 10 and reverted to his pass-catching roots in Week 11, catching eight of nine targets for 89 yards. The Commanders also get a juicy matchup this weekend with Dallas, who is third in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. It’s also worth noting that Washington is a 10-point home favorite over the Cowboys, who have not been able to sustain drives nor score points – and both have gotten worse under Cooper Rush.
Verdict? I’m going with Ekeler in leagues with any kind of PPR scoring. In standard leagues, I think he’d need a touchdown (not out of the question at all) to surpass Williams.
RB: Isiah Pacheco (or Kareem Hunt), KC at Carolina or D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. Minnesota
This one has some unanswered questions at this time (Wednesday) that will hopefully be answered by Sunday morning. Pacheco is predicted to make his return from a broken fibula this week or next. As soon as he’s officially active, I think he belongs in lineups and my prayers (as a desperate Pacheco manager) are that it’s against the Panthers. No one gives up more rushing yards per game or more fantasy points to the position. Carolina ranks second in rushing touchdowns allowed and the Chiefs will have goal line opportunities in this game. Even if Kareem Hunt maintains a third-down or change of pace role, I trust Pacheco to get enough high-value carries to make him worth starting.
Meanwhile, Swift did not practice on Wednesday because of a groin issue that does not sound very serious. After a slow start to the season, Swift has been a fantastic fantasy value. The concerning trend with Swift is that Roschon Johnson had his second 10-attempt game in Week 11 and scored his fifth touchdown of the season. Additionally, Minnesota is a brutal matchup for opposing running backs, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Verdict? If Pacheco practices all week and is active for the game, he’s the guy for me. If there is any question as to his health or playing status, you have to find another option. If Pacheco remains sidelined and Hunt gets another week in the featured role, then I’d take Hunt over Swift. Most of us won’t have the luxury of benching Swift, but in case you do, I have reservations about his ability to surpass ~10 fantasy points this week in half-PPR formats.
WR: Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. Denver or Jayden Waddle, MIA vs. New England
Meyers was vaulted into a WR1 role when Davante Adams was traded away, but all the concerns about QB play and tough matchups limiting his upside have certainly been borne out. Plus, let’s face it, Brock Bowers is the real No. 1 in Las Vegas. Against the Dolphins, one of the better pass defenses in the league and third worst for fantasy WRs, Meyers was held to four catches and one rush for 48 total yards. This week he gets Denver – the worst fantasy WR matchup. Plus, the Raiders have one of the lowest implied team totals for Week 12.
Waddle and Tyreek Hill were both able to thrive in the Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins’ offense last season, but that has not been the case this year. Outside of Week 1, Waddle has not had more than four receptions or 57 yards (for fewer than eight fantasy points per game). His only touchdown of the season came in Week 9 vs. Buffalo. New England is a pretty neutral matchup, and we just saw both Rams receivers absolutely destroy them through the air. Can Waddle finally find some fantasy value?
Verdict? I’m betting on Tua and a motivated Miami team still very much in the playoff hunt to take advantage of New England’s lackluster pass defense. On the other side, Meyers could have his worst game of the season.
WR: Jauan Jennings, SF at Green Bay or Jayden Reed, GB vs. San Francisco
Jennings has arguably moved into WR1 territory for the 49ers when both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are out. We don’t yet know about Kittle’s availability for this game, but I almost think it doesn’t matter. Jennings has seen 11 targets in each of the past two games, which he’s converted into 17 catches and 184 receiving yards (90+ in each game). That’s awesome production and opportunity. The big-time plays Jennings has made this season have surely solidified Brock Purdy’s trust in him.
Green Bay has a rotating carousel of wide receivers reaching fantasy value. Last week it was Christian Watson (4/150), while in Week 9 Reed went for 5/113. Watson has been more heavily targeted in the two most recent games, but Reed was the recipient of the only passing touchdown that Jordan Love has thrown since Week 7. Coming off the 2/23/1 performance, is it Reed’s turn again?
Verdict? I’m starting Jennings over any Green Bay receiver if I have to make that choice. That said, I don’t hate any of the Packers wide receivers in what should be a high-scoring and close NFC showdown Sunday afternoon. It’s just impossible to predict which one might pop any given week.
TE: Jonnu Smith, MIA vs. New England or Travis Kelce, KC at Carolina
There are some of you who just won’t bench Kelce out of respect for his Hall of Fame career. I mean, he’s been the same old Kelce several times this season. The striking difference this year is that he’s flashed a very, very low floor, bottoming out in Week 11 with a season-worst two receptions for eight yards. Buffalo isn’t a pushover defense, but they aren’t that good. I mean, fellow TE Noah Gray scored twice for the Chiefs in Week 11.
Smith has gotten plenty of press after his stellar Week 11 against the Raiders (6/101/2). Smith has actually enjoyed high utilization for weeks now, but it hasn’t always translated to such a mega box score. A matchup with New England is a neutral one for tight ends, so is starting Jonnu just chasing points?
Verdict? I’m going to assume that the Panthers, who give up a ton of fantasy points to opposing TEs (fifth-most) and third-most overall, are not going to be able to keep the veteran TE bottled up for a second week in a row. I think Smith will be fine (8-10 fantasy points), but Kelce has the chance to bounce back for 20-plus fantasy points. Don’t miss out because you’re still simmering about Week 11’s result.
(Photo of Tommy DeVito: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
