Victory is the name of the game in fantasy football, although there is another “V” word that is equally important to fantasy managers.
No, it is not “verisimilitude.” Although that is a great word. It’s “value.” It’s the key to success in fantasy football — selecting players who have an excellent shot at outperforming their draft slot. Players who are undervalued. Conversely, one of the easiest ways to louse up a team on draft day is to load up a team with players who aren’t going to produce at a level commensurate with when they were drafted.
Pick a bushel of overvalued fantasy players, and the season to come will be quite the vertical clamber. No one likes to clamber all season long. It’s exhausting.
With draft season now ramping into high gear, in an effort to assist fantasy managers in avoiding the landmines that are overvalued players who could sink their season, this analyst has assembled an entire starting lineup comprised of players you don’t want in the starting lineup.
Welcome one and all to the All-Overvalued team. And, yes, I realize that based on ADP, you couldn’t really draft all these players. That’s not the point of this exercise—“The Most Overvalued Player in Each Round” is a different article.
(ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Pros)
QB: Josh Allen, BUF — ADP: QB1, 26th Overall
Might as well keep beating this poor, dead horse. Yes, Allen was fantasy’s highest scoring quarterback in 2023. But that doesn’t make him (or any signal-caller in leagues that only start one) worth a pick in the third round. Never mind that Allen’s passing-game weapons are worse than a year ago. Or that his 29 touchdown passes last year were his fewest since 2019. Or that last year’s 15 rushing touchdowns were more than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. The value at quarterback in fantasy lies in being patient.
RB1: Kyren Williams, LAR — ADP: RB7, 15th Overall
There’s no questioning Williams’ per-game productivity in 2023—only Christian McCaffrey logged more PPR points per game last year than Williams, and Williams’ 1,300-plus total yards and 15 scores last year were good for seventh at the position. But Williams also missed five games in 2023, and the Rams used a Day 2 pick this year on Michigan’s Blake Corum. If Williams stays healthy and keeps a featured role, he could be a Top 5 back. But he could also go down again and wind up Wally Pipp’ed by Corum.
RB2: Rhamondre Stevenson, NE — ADP: RB23, 67th Overall
Stevenson’s ADP lands him smack in the middle of the “RB Dead Zone”—and smacks of fantasy managers living in 2022, when Stevenson averaged five yards a carry, topped 1,000 rushing yards and finished eighth in PPR points among running backs. Last year, Stevenson’s yards per carry dropped by a full yard and he missed five games. Stevenson plays for arguably the worst team in the NFL, the Patriots added Antonio Gibson in free agency as a passing-down back and the 26-year-old Stevenson has never rushed for more than five scores in a season.
WR1: Puka Nacua, LAR — ADP: WR7, 12th Overall
Nacua was incredible as a rookie, breaking a receiving yards record for first-year players that had stood for six decades. But that was with veteran wideout Cooper Kupp sidelined much of the year, and to meet this ADP, Nacua will need to come within about a PPR point per game of last year’s production. Last year, when both Kupp and Nacua were on the field together, Nacua’s PPR per-game production was 33 percent lower than when Kupp was on the sidelines. Fantasy managers are underestimating the impact that a healthy Kupp will have on Nacua’s fantasy numbers this year.
WR2: Deebo Samuel, SF — ADP: WR17, 36th Overall
Samuel is an excellent NFL player and a unique offensive weapon for the 49ers. And to be fair, Samuel’s 12 total touchdowns last year helped propel the 28-year-old into the top 15 in fantasy points. But assuming that Brandon Aiyuk is still on the team in Week 1 — he will be—rumors are swirling that an extension is coming soon — it’s Aiyuk who is the team’s No. 1 receiver (and the only pass-catcher in San Francisco who was targeted 100 times in 2023). Add in that Christian McCaffrey has taken much of Samuel’s rushing duties away, and he’s a better NFL player than fantasy asset.
WR3: Tank Dell, HOU — ADP: WR29, 62nd Overall
Dell had himself a season last year, at least when healthy. In 11 games, Dell caught 47 passes for 709 yards, averaged over 15 yards per catch and scored seven times— numbers that slotted Dell inside the top 12 wideouts in PPR points per game. But this year’s Texans offense is much different after the addition of Stefon Diggs to a passing attack that already included Dell and Nico Collins. Add in veteran tight end Dalton Schultz and offseason running back acquisition Joe Mixon, and there are a lot of mouths to feed in Houston. Dell is talented, but he’s also as likely as not going to rank third among Houston wideouts in targets.
TE: Trey McBride, ARI — ADP: TE4, 59th Overall
McBride heated up in a big way for the Cardinals down the stretch last year on the way to a career season — he was one of seven NFL tight ends to amass 100 targets in 2023 and his 81 catches ranked fifth at the position. But McBride is being drafted as though another spike in production is coming, and it’s difficult to see where that spike is going to come from. The Cardinals’ wide receivers are improved this year, McBride has averaged less than 10 yards a reception for his career, and he has just four touchdowns in two seasons.
K: Justin Tucker, BAL — ADP: K1, 107th Overall
There’s no denying that Tucker is a fantastic kicker — an argument can be made that he’s the greatest player ever to play his position. But that doesn’t mean that taking him — or any kicker — in the ninth round isn’t a genuinely awful idea. The No. 1 fantasy kicker last year outscored the No. 12 kicker by less than two fantasy points per game — and that kicker wasn’t even Tucker, it was Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys. It’s simple, really — do not ever take a kicker before the last round of your draft unless the scoring favors them… heavily.
DST: San Francisco 49ers — ADP: DST1, 110th Overall
Are the 49ers an excellent defensive football team stacked with Pro Bowl talent? Yes — edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner are among the best in the game at what they do. But that 49ers defense faltered somewhat down the stretch, forced the third-fewest fumbles in the league in 2023 and finished the season outside the top 12 in fantasy points. Defenses are wildly unpredictable from year to year, and the best way to approach the position is to find a good Week 1 matchup play to open the year and then stream the position.
FLEX: WR Jordan Addison, MIN — ADP: WR39, 90th Overall
This isn’t a matter of talent — Addison surpassed 900 receiving yards, scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie in 2023 and finished the season as a top 25 PPR receiver. But those numbers came with Justin Jefferson on the shelf for upwards of half the season. Now Jefferson is healthy, and Minnesota’s quarterback in 2024 will either be an untested rookie in J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold. Double-digit touchdowns probably aren’t happening again, and this analyst would rather roll the dice on rookie Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs or go a safer route with Worthy’s teammate Marquise Brown.
(Top photo of Deebo Samuel: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
