If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats, courtesy of Trumedia, are through July 24)
Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 20 Pitches, Last 30 Days)
- Frankie Montas, CIN — Split-Finger 46.3%, Slider 32.0%, Cutter 31.9%
- Colin Rea, MIL — Sweeper 38.2%, Split-Finger 30.8%, 4-Seam Fastball 29.7%
- Kyle Gibson, STL — Sweeper 49.2%, Curveball 42.9%
- Jose Quintana, NYM — Changeup 47.4%, Curveball 34.5%
- Jordan Hicks, SF — Split-Finger 45.5%, Sweeper 44.4%
- Andrew Heaney, TEX — Slider 43.0%, Changeup 29.8%
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — Slider 37.5%, Changeup 36.5%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — Split-Finger 36.8%, Slider 30.6%
- Patrick Corbin, WAS — Cutter 35.1%, Slider 32.8%
- Kenta Maeda, DET — Sweeper 35.0%, Slider 34.0%
- Andre Pallante, STL — Slider 34.8%, Curveball 33.3%
Available Starters: ≤.375 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon, Last 30 Days)
- Robbie Ray, SF — 0.200 xwOBAcon
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.297 xwOBAcon
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN — 0.310 xwOBAcon
- Roddery Munoz, MIA — 0.340 xwOBAcon
- Randy Vasquez, SD — 0.355 xwOBAcon
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX — 0.356 xwOBAcon
- Mitch Spence, OAK — 0.362 xwOBAcon
- DJ Herz, WAS — 0.362 xwOBAcon
- Jose Soriano, LAA — 0.374 xwOBAcon
- Chris Flexen, CHW — 0.375 xwOBAcon
- Cade Povich, BAL — 0.375 xwOBAcon
Hidden Gem: First off, if Robbie Ray or Clayton Kershaw is available and you have waiver priority or FAAB left, add them with extreme prejudice — they may be the last best chance to acquire an ace. For the rest of us, SP free agency has been nightmarish, as we elbow each other out of the way for any semblance of sustained viability. Unfortunately, sometimes that takes us toward the worst teams with the lowest chances of racking up wins, and here we are. That said, I’ll always take the highest quality arm and let the rest figure itself out — it’s not like pitcher wins are predictable anyway. Former Yankees prospect Drew Thorpe made it to the South Side of Chicago via San Diego in the Juan Soto trade this past offseason. Keep in mind he skipped Triple-A altogether and is just now getting his season-long stats under wraps (3.03 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) after ruining all ratios in a 3.1 IP, 7 ER blowup in his second outing. Despite the 32% K rate through 199 career MiLB innings, Thorpe’s not a prototypical strikeout machine. Sitting at only ~90 mph on a below average four-seamer, the 22-year-old features a changeup-first approach, focused on locating to his arm-side, low in the zone.
Since getting crushed by Arizona in the desert on June 16, Thorpe’s now up to five quality starts in a row, surrendering only five earned runs in that span. Watching him work is a thing of beauty at times — a true throwback to the 1980s, before velocity reigned supreme. Thorpe is especially good at changing the eye level of hitters while switching speeds — with nearly identical release points and observed spin on the fastball/changeup combo. While there’s only one way for the past month’s 1.85 ERA, 0.73 WHIP combo to realistically go, I love the contact suppression and think he represents our best chance for quality innings at scale.
Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 109.6 m.p.h. EV
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 109.3 m.p.h. EV
- Jhonkensy Noel, OF, CLE — 108.9 m.p.h. EV
- Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 108.7 m.p.h. EV
- Michael Toglia, OF/1B, COL — 107.9 m.p.h. EV
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 107.8 m.p.h. EV
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
- Michael Conforto, OF, SF — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
- Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 107.5 m.p.h. EV
- Shea Langeliers, C, OAK — 107.4 m.p.h. EV
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 107.4 m.p.h. EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
Available Hitters: <26% Chase Rate And >.395 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 24.6% Chase, 0.540 xwOBAcon
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B, ARI — 25.9% Chase, 0.538 xwOBAcon
- Ben Rice, 1B, NYY — 17.5% Chase, 0.519 xwOBAcon
- Will Benson, OF, CIN — 24.0% Chase, 0.470 xwOBAcon
- Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 21.8% Chase, 0.442 xwOBAcon
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF, DET — 16.4% Chase, 0.438 xwOBAcon
- Colton Cowser, OF, BAL — 25.2% Chase, 0.426 xwOBAcon
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 24.4% Chase, 0.420 xwOBAcon
- Max Schuemann, SS, OAK — 18.0% Chase, 0.419 xwOBAcon
- Brandon Marsh, OF, PHI — 19.3% Chase, 0.408 xwOBAcon
- Matt Vierling, 3B/OF, DET — 25.1% Chase, 0.408 xwOBAcon
- Austin Wells, C, NYY — 21.5% Chase, 0.406 xwOBAcon
- Nolan Schanuel, 1B, LAA — 17.2% Chase, 0.405 xwOBAcon
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 18.6% Chase, 0.404 xwOBAcon
- Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, TEX — 24.1% Chase, 0.399 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Juan Yepez, 1B, WSH — 25.4% Pulled FBLD%
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B, ARI — 23.4% Pulled FBLD%
- Ernie Clement, 3B, TOR — 20.3% Pulled FBLD%
- Gavin Sheets, OF, CHW — 18.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Jeff McNeil, 2B, NYM — 18.5% Pulled FBLD%
- Jake Rogers, C, DET — 18.0% Pulled FBLD%
- Jorge Polanco, 2B, SEA — 17.9% Pulled FBLD%
- JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Will Benson, OF, CIN — 17.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Hunter Renfroe, OF, KC — 17.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Dominic Smith, 1B, BOS — 17.1% Pulled FBLD%
Hidden Gem: I’ve probably led off my hitter rant with something about timing at least a half dozen times this year. Players, like teams (or stocks for that matter) often produce in oscillating waves with a tendency to return toward their established expectation based on prior track record. Even the best (or worst) vehicles do not move in perpetuity. Understanding that one strategic angle has served me very well in fantasy over the years, it makes buying low on proven skills easier, especially in the case of chasing home runs, that are directly affected by the weather. Enter Arizona’s veteran third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who we know a few things about by now — he possesses +35 HR potential and also goes through cold stretches when zone contact dries up. Well, the temperature is rising along with Suarez’s contact rate, and the fantasy goodness has started flowing.
After what can only be described as a horrific half-season (315 PA: .196 BA, 6 HR, .591 OPS, 29% K, 35% Hard Hit, 67% Contact, .323 xwOBAcon, 13% Pulled FBLD), Suarez finally found his stroke as soon as the calendar flipped to July. Strikeouts will always be baked into the cake, but in his 76 July plate appearances, Suarez doubled his HR total with the underpinning metrics to back it up — .299 BA, 6 HR, 1.010 OPS, 30% K, 56% Hard Hit, 71% Contact, .555 xwOBAcon, 25% Pulled FBLD. He plays every single day, hitting in the middle-third of an above average Diamondbacks lineup that should compete down the stretch. With power down league-wide, finding one or two boppers could be difference-making in the standings.
Relief Pitchers
Slight pivot on relievers to focus more on targeting roles over skills. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.
Relievers: +10 Saves + Holds Since June 1
- Andrew Kittredge, STL — 13 SHOLDS
- Bryan Abreu, HOU — 13 SHOLDS
- Ryan Pressly, HOU — 12 SHOLDS
- Tyler Rogers, SF — 12 SHOLDS
- Yennier Cano, BAL — 12 SHOLDS
- Ryne Stanek, SEA — 11 SHOLDS
- Fernando Cruz, CIN — 11 SHOLDS
- Jason Adam, TB — 10 SHOLDS
- Hunter Harvey, KC — 10 SHOLDS
- Ryan Thompson, ARI — 10 SHOLDS
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE — 10 SHOLDS
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson, CIN — +10 teams
- Austin Wells, NYY — 10/12 teams
- Gabriel Moreno, ARI — +12 teams
- Patrick Bailey, SF — 12/15 teams
- Jacob Stallings, MIA — +15 teams
First Base
- Michael Toglia, COL — +10 teams
- Seth Brown, OAK — 10/12 teams
- Juan Yepez, WAS — +12 teams
- Ben Rice, NYY — +12 teams
- Nolan Schanuel, LAA — 12/15 teams
- Josh Bell, MIA — +15 teams
Second Base
- Connor Norby, BAL — +10 teams
- Jeff McNeil, NYM — 10/12 teams
- Gavin Lux, LAD — +12 teams
- Eduoard Julien, MIN — +12 teams
- Jorge Polanco, SEA — +15 teams
- Jamie Westbrook, BOS — +15 teams
Shortstop
- Zach Neto, LAA — +10 teams
- Brooks Lee, MIN — 10/12 teams
- Xavier Edwards, MIA — +12 teams
- Geraldo Perdomo, ARI — 12/15 teams
- Romy Gonzalez, BOS — +15 teams
- Orlando Arcia, ATL — +15 teams
Third Base
- Colt Keith, DET — +10 teams
- Eugenio Suárez, ARI— 10/12 teams
- Jake Burger, MIA — +12 teams
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET — 12/15 teams
- Ernie Clement, TOR — +15 teams
- Josh Smith, TEX — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
- Lawrence Butler, OAK
- Brenton Doyle, COL
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Alec Burleson, STL
- Colton Cowser, BAL
- Jake Meyers, HOU
- Matt Wallner, MIN
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
- Will Benson, CIN
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- Jose Siri, TB
- Wenceel Pérez, DET
- Leody Tavares, TEX
- Andy Pages, LAD
- Victor Robles, SEA
- Luke Raley, SEA
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- Mike Yastrzemski, SF
- Jesse Winker, WAS
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- Garrett Mitchell, MIL
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Matt Vierling, DET
- Jo Adell, LAA
- Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
- Miguel Andujar, OAK
- Michael Conforto, SF
- Tommy Pham, CHW
- Alek Thomas, ARI
- Hunter Renfroe, KC
- Masataka Yoshida, BOS
- Jake Cave, COL
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Adam Duvall, ATL
- Angel Martínez, CLE
- Richie Palacios, TB
- Jack Suwinski, PIT
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Daniel Schneemann, CLE
- Gavin Sheets, CHW
- Sal Frelick, MIL
- Mickey Moniak, LAA
- Andrew Benintendi, CHW
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Michael Siani, STL
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- Dominic Canzone, SEA
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
- Trent Grisham, NYY
- Josh Palacios, PIT
- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Nick Gordon, MIA
- Tyrone Taylor, NYM
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Mark Canha, DET
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Bryce Johnson, SD
- Tyler Freeman, CLE
- Chas McCormick, HOU
- Heston Kjerstad, BAL
Hitter Stashes
Starters
- Max Meyer, MIA ^
- Drew Thorpe, CHW ^
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR
- Luis L. Ortiz, PIT ^
- José Soriano, LAA
- River Ryan, LAD ^
- Kyle Harrison, SF
- Yilber Diaz, ARI
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Cade Povich, BAL
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
- Tyler Phillips, PHI ^
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX
- Louie Varland, MIN ^
- J.P. Sears, OAK
- Tobias Myers, MIL
- Michael Mercado, PHI
- Frankie Montas, CIN
- Andre Pallante, STL
- Tylor Megill, NYM ^
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Cooper Criswell, BOS
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Joey Estes, OAK
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Xzavion Curry, CLE
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Alex Cobb, SF ^
- Keider Montero, DET
- Carson Spiers, CIN
- Dean Kremer, BAL
- Slade Cecconi, ARI
- Germán Márquez, COL
- Ryan Feltner, COL
- Adam Mazur, SD
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Hogan Harris, OAK
- Logan Allen, CLE
- Mitch Spence, OAK
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA
- Landon Knack, LAD
- Darius Vines, ATL
^ — First Appearance/High-Riser
Starting Pitcher Stashes
Relievers
- Lucas Erceg, OAK (Mason Miller to IL)
- Shelby Miller, DET
- Daniel Hudson, LAD
- Yimi García. TOR
- Jason Adam, TB (anticipating Pete Fairbanks trade)
- Victor Vodnik, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Andrew Kittredge, STL
- John Brebbia, CHW
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE
- Chad Green, TOR
- Bryan Hudson, MIL
- Jalen Beeks, COL
- Luis García, LAA
- Joe Jiménez, ATL
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT
- Ryne Stanek, SEA
- Mark Leiter Jr., CHC
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- Tyler Rogers, SF
- Fernando Cruz, CIN
Ranking Next Week’s Two-Start Pitchers
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD — @ SD (Matt Waldron), @ OAK (Osvaldo Bido)
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN — @ NYM (Jose Quintana), vs. CHW (Chris Flexen)
- Alec Marsh, KC — @ CHW (Chris Flexen), @ DET (TBA)
- Jordan Montgomery, ARI — vs. WAS (Mitchell Parker), @ PIT (Paul Skenes)
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — @ BAL (TBA), @ NYY (Luis Gil)
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — @ ARI (Jordan Montgomery), vs. MIL (TBD)
- Cooper Criswell, BOS — vs. SEA (Logan Gilbert), @ TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
- Colin Rea, MIL — vs. ATL (TBD), @ WAS (DJ Herz)
- Andre Pallante, STL — vs. TEX (Nathan Eovaldi), @ CHC (Justin Steele)
- Lance Lynn, STL — vs. TEX (Max Scherzer), @ CHC (Jameson Taillon)
- Griffin Canning, LAA — vs. COL (Ty Blach), vs. NYM (David Peterson)
- Edward Cabrera, MIA — @ TB (Zach Eflin), @ ATL (Chris Sale)
- Chris Flexen, CHW — vs. KC (Alec Marsh), @ MIN (Simeon Woods Richardson)
- Jake Bloss, HOU — vs. PIT (Paul Skenes), vs. TB (TBD)
- Ty Blach, COL — @ LAA (Griffin Canning), @ SD (Matt Waldron)
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Eugenio Suárez: Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
