Tropical activity is in the beginning stages of ramping back up across the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather hurricane experts say. Multiple zones are being highlighted which stand a chance at featuring tropical development following the Labor Day holiday from the Central Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching, falling on Sept. 10. During this time, forecasters say that conditions are typically ideal for the development of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across the basin.
By this point in the season, ocean water temperatures have often had sufficient time to heat up across the Atlantic, promoting better chances for thunderstorms and storm development.
Forecasters say that Labor Day weekend is typically one of the busiest times for tropical features in the Atlantic, but this year, we currently have no named storms tracking across the basin. If no named storms form across the Atlantic waters by Labor Day, Sept. 2, this would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named tropical storm has developed in the basin between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.
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Numerous tropical waves advancing westward across the Atlantic waters from the African coast will heighten the chances for development, given the primed conditions and lack of Saharan dust over the region. However, over the next week or so, one important factor will pose a challenge for any developing tropical features.
“While there has been a reduction in dry and dusty air across the Atlantic Basin over the last week, there continues to be near- to above-average amounts of wind shear across much of the basin,” explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
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DaSilva added that this wind shear is helping to prevent any quick organization of the tropical waves that are moving off of Africa. A reduction of this wind shear is forecast toward the middle of the month which can allow for things to get much more active for the middle of the month.
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Forecasters say that a La Niña pattern projected to emerge from September to November will help to promote lower levels of wind shear across the primary development regions.
“The transition toward La Niña has been slow, and as a result slightly higher than average wind shear across the Atlantic has helped to limit tropical development,” noted DaSilva.
A tropical rainstorm is currently bringing rounds of rain and thunderstorms to the Texas and Louisiana coastlines, which will persist through the Labor Day holiday. Moisture will continue to surge northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and impact the South Central states for much of this week.
Later this week into the upcoming weekend, forecasters are monitoring the potential for a storm to take shape along the Southeast Coast. This zone has been designated a low risk for tropical formation from Sept. 5-7, but regardless of development, the threat remains for rounds of rain along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts by the upcoming weekend.
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Over the course of the week, a wave of energy will shift into the Caribbean Sea and usher in persistent downpours from the Leeward Islands to the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.
“A tropical wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles will need to be monitored for development as it moves across the Caribbean this week and into the start of the weekend. Conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for development later this week and as a result this tropical wave will need to be watched closely as we approach the peak of the hurricane season,” highlighted DaSilva.
The latest indications show that upper-level steering winds will pilot this wave from the Caribbean waters into the Gulf of Mexico by the upcoming weekend. Interests in the Gulf and locations from the Texas coast to western Florida should closely monitor the progress of this upcoming feature.
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Any feature that forms within this corridor will stand a decent chance at strengthening over the warm Caribbean and Gulf waters.
“Water temperatures and ocean heat content levels remain at near-record levels across the Atlantic, potentially allowing for the rapid intensification of any named storm that forms,” noted DaSilva.
The next storm name for the Atlantic basin will be Francine.
As hurricane experts continue to monitor these zones for development over the next week or two, they say that tropical downpours will be the theme across the region regardless. Even pockets of rough seas will be probably as clusters of rain and thunderstorms ramp up across the Atlantic.
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